Hamilton tips and results

Our price $4.50 · SP $7.50 · Tom Madden

Our price $6.00 · SP $5.50 · Jack Hill

Bronx Brawler is the value runner. His Bendigo Heavy 8 trial, beaten a nose, is arguably the most encouraging pre-race evidence in the field, and he is ridden by the jockey with the best strike rate at this track. A Zoustar-Brooklyn Hustle pedigree points to genuine sprinting speed on soft ground.

Our price $8.00 · SP $7.50 · Tom Madden

Stomping Ground is the logical map horse. His resuming 4th at Warracknabeal was competitive and he should improve second up with a 2kg weight edge over the older horses.

Our price $14.00 · SP $31.00 · Chelsea Thompson

Tikiela is a classic bias play rather than a form standout. She has been improving with each run this preparation, races on the speed, is proven on soft and heavy ground over 1100m and carries just 54.5kg. With only Cool Aza Breeze as another genuine leader - and that mare drawn wide - Tikiela can get a cheap lead from barrier 5 on a track where leaders have been winning a third of races.

Our price $8.00 · SP $8.00 · Dean Yendall

Her debut fifth was compromised at the start and again near the post, yet she made ground from last. The 4.5kg weight concession and Yendall booking are positives.

Our price $10.00 · SP $5.50 · Ryan Hurdle

Pete The Prophet has the second-best exposed mile form in the race with two narrow thirds at 1610m and 1755m, and the reunion with Ryan Hurdle at his preferred distance second-up is a logical upgrade. The concerns are real: he has never raced on rain-affected ground, the barrier is awkward, and his last two runs have been poor.

Our price $12.00 · SP $15.00 · Melissa Julius

He was 2nd in a BM56 mile here in May, ran a close 3rd in BM62 last start, and drops in grade.

Our price $5.00 · SP $3.60 · Ryan Hurdle

Hoodys Horse is the likely leader and that alone makes him a serious player at Hamilton, where leaders win nearly 29% of races and the bias intensifies in the wet. He has won here over 2200m and his wet-track record is sound, with recent placings in stronger BM62 company. The concerns are 62kg top weight, a modest jockey booking with no wins on the horse, and two poor efforts at 1950-2000m.

Our price $4.50 · SP $3.90 · Chelsea Thompson

Packers Journey maps best in a race where Hamilton's data screams on-pace and low draws. She led throughout to win a BM56 on Soft 6 at Mildura last start, has two wins on soft going, and draws barrier 4. The jockey booking is the query, but form, fitness and map alignment make her the most likely winner.

Our price $5.50 · SP $9.00 · Tom Madden

Alcoshare maps to lead uncontested from barrier 5 on a track with a pronounced on-pace/low-draw bias that strengthens in the wet. He won at 1400m on Soft 5 last start leading all the way, has 3 wins from 8 at the trip and 10:2-2-1 on soft.

Our price $6.50 · SP $3.20 · John Allen

However, she is first up with no fresh wins, drawn 11 on a track that punishes wide draws and backmarkers, carries 60.5kg, and rises in class.

Our price $7.00 · SP $5.50 · Brad Rawiller

He led throughout to win on Soft 5 at Mildura and his last-start 5th over this course-and-distance grade on Soft 7 came with excuses - keen, difficult to ride out, laid out.