Tamworth tips and results

Our price $1.75 · SP $1.70 · Aaron Bullock

Joika is the most likely winner on form. Her 2200m win at Scone was the strongest run in this field, and she was very unlucky at Newcastle last start, checked twice and still beaten under a length. Calzino finished well behind her that day. Bullock's record at Tamworth and his strike rate with the stable add confidence. She needs to handle a good track and settle closer than the speed map suggests in a slowly run race, but her class should carry her.

Our price $7.00 · SP $6.00 · Izzy Neale

Calzino has already won at this course, distance and grade, and the stable does well at Tamworth. His last start at Newcastle was solid after a slow beginning, though he finished behind Joika. The concern is where he settles: he usually drops back, and with a slow pace and Tamworth favouring on-pace runners, he may be left with too much ground to make up.

Our price $4.50 · SP $5.00 · Zac Wadick

Mongolian Master is a reliable placegetter, running second and third at his two Tamworth runs over this distance, both to a solid standard. He over-raced in front last start and still held on for third, so if he settles behind Syllable he could get closer. Against that, he goes up in weight and needs to find cover from a middle draw.

Our price $6.00 · SP $9.00 · Gabrielle Johnston

Unalienable Right came back from a spell with a strong second at Tuncurry, easily his best run and one that stacks up well against this field. The question is how he gets into the race. Drawn wide, he is likely to be further back than ideal on a track where backmarkers struggle, and he still has to prove himself over 1200m. His fitness and improvement make him a place chance, but the map works against him winning.

Our price $1.95 · SP $2.50 · Aaron Bullock

Both runs this preparation were good enough to win this race. His Tamworth second last start came after he was checked, so he's better than the result shows. His early speed puts him just behind the likely leaders Nugget Smart and Hinto in a moderately run race, and that position has been winning at Tamworth. Bullock is in form and rides this track well. He has to prove himself at 1400m and carries 59kg, but he's clearly the one to beat.

Our price $7.00 · SP $7.50 · Izzy Neale

Her form looks poor on paper but she has excuses. She was bumped and crowded early at Tamworth last start. Before that she finished fourth in a stronger race at Scone, making up plenty of ground late. She drops in class, handles good ground and comes from a stable that does very well at this track with this jockey. Her main problem is that she settles back in the field on a track that favours runners up on the pace.

Our price $5.50 · SP $6.50 · Aaron Bullock

He won this race's track and distance a fortnight ago on the same going, and the run holds up as a genuine winning performance. Aaron Bullock's Tamworth record is a real plus. The worry is the map: from barrier 11 he'll settle back, and horses that far back struggle at Tamworth. The rise in grade is modest, and in a weak BM58 his current form gives him a strong place chance.

Our price $3.00 · SP $4.20 · Ben Looker

His city second at Rosehill is the best run in this field, and he is 3 from 5 on good ground. Dropping to 55kg with his winning jockey helps, and barrier 3 should let Looker find cover rather than drop right out. The main worry is where he settles in a race with only one leader.

Our price $4.80 · SP $2.90 · Aaron Bullock

He has the easiest run on the map: likely to lead alone at Tamworth, where on-pace runners dominate, with the track's leading jockey aboard. His February win here was a standout run. Against him, he returns from a break after three poor runs and has never won at 1200m. Take him for a place.

Our price $10.00 · SP $41.00 · Jordie Thompson

His best form from last spring would make him hard to beat, and his poor first-up run came after he was checked early and pulled hard.

Our price $3.60 · SP $6.00 · Jordie Thompson

Haney is the most reliable form horse in the race. All three of his recent runs were up to winning standard, and one of them was a close fourth over this course and distance at this class, where he was checked late. He drops to 54.5kg, draws barrier 1 and races handy, so he should get a sit just behind a fast pace set by Irish Jig and Tomoe Gozen.

Our price $6.50 · SP $5.00 · Izzy Neale

Irish Jig has the speed to use the Tamworth leader bias and has run to a winning standard at his best. However, he weakened in the straight in his last two runs and now carries 60.5kg with a 44-day break. He also has to handle pressure from Tomoe Gozen in a fast-run race. The drop back to 1000m could help him hold on, so he is worth including in exotics.