Warwick Farm tips and results

Our price $3.60 · SP $3.60 · Regan Bayliss

Koibito brings the strongest last-start performance in the race, running to a winning standard when leading and just nabbed at Newcastle first-up. She is placed on Soft and Heavy ground, went within a nose over 1550m on a Soft 7 last campaign, and has the speed to be in the first few on a track that punishes backmarkers. The step to the mile second-up looks ideal rather than a query.

Our price $6.00 · SP $10.00 · Tommy Berry

Classy filly whose all-the-way Soft track win at Canterbury in June matches the best form in this race. She trialled well at Rosehill to come back and has the draw and speed to be right on the pace. The concerns are that she has not raced since June, blood was found in a nostril after that win, and 1100m may prove short of her best. She has genuine winning claims if she returns in the same order.

Our price $7.00 · SP $6.50 · Chad Schofield

His Gosford second on Soft ground stacks up with the best form in the race, and he won his Hawkesbury maiden since while still doing things wrong. He showed at Gosford that he can take a handier position, though.

Our price $10.00 · SP $8.50 · Adam Hyeronimus

Fantazy Man is the speculative play. He was disappointing first-up here over a similar trip, but that was his first run in over a year, he began awkwardly and was bumped early, and his rider felt softer ground would help. Second-up from this stable, he should race on the speed in a race with only one genuine leader, which is the best place to be at Warwick Farm.

Our price $3.80 · SP $2.60 · Tommy Berry

The main danger. A lightly raced four-year-old with Stakes exposure, she improved sharply second-up when fourth over this course and distance on Soft 5, inconvenienced late. She handles wet ground, draws barrier 2 and should peak third-up. However, she finished behind Storm Season that day, her best run this preparation still sits a notch below that mare, and she will need to settle closer than usual at a track that is tough on backmarkers.

Our price $7.50 · SP $16.00 · Jean Van Overmeire

The value runner. Three of her four wins are on soft ground and she drops in grade after a luckless second at Canberra, where she raced keenly and was held up until the 100m. She has been consistent all preparation and the stable is flying. The risk is her get-back pattern at a track that punishes backmarkers, though an eight-horse field limits the damage.

Our price $3.10 · SP $3.20 · Adam Hyeronimus

His Melbourne runs in stronger grade, particularly the Sandown third on soft ground, are the best recent efforts in this field, and he had an excuse at Caulfield when he lost a plate over 1800m. He maps to control from barrier 2 at a track where on-pace runners dominate, and he has won his only start over this course and distance. The query is how strongly he finishes off a mile, but the moderate tempo should help.

Our price $9.50 · SP $10.00 · Ashley Morgan

The overlay. Back at a mile, where he has four wins and three thirds from seven starts, and on soft ground, where he has won four of seven. His two runs at this grade were over 1900m, which looks beyond his best, and he bounced back to win at the mile last start. He maps to sit just behind the leaders from barrier 5, the ideal spot here.

Our price $7.50 · SP $6.50 · Dale Cole

She ran the best recent race of any runner here when leading and holding on for third at this grade first-up at Canterbury, beaten just over half a length. She now steps to 1400m, where she has won three of ten, and is second-up with a solid wet-track record. The wide gate is the query, but she has the speed to cross and sit handy.

Our price $10.00 · SP $12.00 · Winona Costin

A reliable type who keeps running honest races at this grade, including a win here in June and two close seconds since. He is proven on soft ground and at the track, and his on-pace style fits the Warwick Farm pattern. The step from 1100m to 1400m is the unknown, as his recent form is all sprinting and he has been one-paced late. He is more a placegetter than a winner, but he should run well if he settles handy.

Our price $9.50 · SP $7.50 · Claire Ramsbotham

The class dropper of the race. His first-up sixth in far stronger company at Bathurst, carrying a big weight, was a run that stacks up well against this field.

Our price $6.00 · SP $8.00 · Tyler Schiller

The form overlay. His record is much better with give in the track: five wins and two seconds from eight wet starts. He is fit, has early speed and drops sharply in class.

Our price $9.00 · SP $7.00 · Kerrin McEvoy

A mare with a sharp turn of foot who won her only 1000m start on soft ground and ran on well in stakes races over further in Queensland. Barrier 3, 54kg and a fast tempo give her the chance to save ground and finish hard.

Our price $3.00 · SP $3.30 · Dylan Gibbons

His first-up Canterbury win at this grade was run to a standard nothing else here has matched recently, and he is a lightly raced four-year-old with three wins from four starts. He has the speed to hold a forward spot from barrier 6, which is the place to be at Warwick Farm. The queries are an untested wet-track record in races, although he trialled well on soft ground, and likely pace pressure under 60.5kg. On form he is the most likely winner.

Our price $10.00 · SP $9.00 · Nash Rawiller

He closed well for second over a too-short 900m last start and returns to his best trip of 1100m. From barrier 3 with Nash Rawiller aboard he should settle handy enough behind a fast speed.

Our price $10.00 · SP $13.00 · William A Stanley

The value runner. She won a stronger mares' race at Randwick in April and ran respectably in stakes company on Soft 7 before that, so this is a clear drop in grade. She has won three of four starts on rain-affected ground and won at her only Warwick Farm appearance. She has not raced since May but has trialled twice and the Lees stable does well here.