Happy Valley tips and results

Our price $4.50 · SP $4.00 · Zac Purton

He drops in class, gets Purton and has the inside draw, and his Class 4 placings at the track make him a major threat.

Our price $8.50 · SP $10.00 · Andrea Atzeni

With five horses keen to lead, this race should be run at a strong speed, which suits a finisher carrying light weight. He has been running on well in Class 5 lately, and his runs over this course and distance read better than the results.

Our price $4.20 · SP $5.90 · Matthew Poon

His record over this course and distance is strong, his stable is flying and the expected pace collapse suits his run style.

Our price $3.60 · SP $2.60 · Andrea Atzeni

When ridden handy into a fast pace last start, he faded late behind Lucky Mcqueen.

Our price $6.50 · SP $5.40 · E C W Wong

His September win at Sha Tin was the strongest run by anything in this field, and last start he was only narrowly short of that level while racing outside the leader from barrier 12. The wide draw and a crowded speed map are real concerns at Happy Valley.

Our price $7.50 · SP $12.00 · Lyle Hewitson

He is a value play. A fast pace with three leaders should suit his finishing run.

Our price $5.00 · SP $19.00 · Brenton Avdulla

Take Action has the most reliable Class 4 form at Happy Valley over 1650m in the field. He won here in June and has since finished second, fourth and fourth, and each of those runs was close to a winning standard. Four likely leaders should make for a fast pace, which suits the way he finishes from midfield, and barrier 5 is a kinder draw than he has had lately.

Our price $12.00 · SP $15.00 · Andrea Atzeni

Podium returns to his best trip after two runs over 1200m, which was too short for him, one of which was ruined by interference. His July second over this course and distance would make him competitive here, and barrier 3 with bottom weight lets him sit just behind the leaders.

Our price $4.80 · SP $18.00 · Richard Kingscote

On form he is the most reliable horse in the race. He is a proven Happy Valley 1000m winner, won at this level in June and was a close 4th in July. Barrier 1 lets him sit on the fence while Superb King, Mapogo, Beauty Show and Copper Core take each other on up front, and that very fast tempo should set it up for his late run. Top weight is the main query, but he has carried big weights well before.

Our price $4.00 · SP $2.50 · Zac Purton

Purton and barrier 4 give him every chance. Still, he has not won from 18 starts, his stable is cold, and a hot speed battle may not suit if he presses forward.

Our price $4.00 · SP $2.10 · Alexis Badel

Overall his recent runs are below the best Class 4 form here.

Our price $10.00 · SP $30.00 · Richard Kingscote

His July win over this course and distance was the best performance by any horse in this race. First up after a trial, he raced handy and was only beaten into fifth. He has the speed to hold a forward position from barrier 8, and with the fitter run behind him a return to his winning form is possible.

Our price $5.50 · SP $6.10 · Nichola Yuen

A reliable Valley sprinter who raced on the speed last time and only weakened late under 60kg. With 4kg less to carry and an in-form rider, he should be in the finish.

Our price $8.50 · SP $8.20 · Matthew L Chadwick

He now gets a big weight drop for the rise in class. He has to come from midfield, but he should get a good run if the pace is fast.

Our price $2.90 · SP $5.30 · Zac Purton

The class runner of the race. His spring runs in the Derby and Classic Cup clock better than anything else in this field. He came back with a narrow second over this course and distance with 61kg and now meets the winner, Pope Cody, 3kg better. Second up suits him (1 win and 1 second from 2 starts), and Purton keeps the ride. A fast pace should let him settle midfield and close strongly.

Our price $5.00 · SP $3.00 · Alexis Badel

Won the last-start race that is the key form line here. He came from midfield, the same pattern that should suit today's fast pace. The 3kg rise in weight against the runner-up closes the gap, and his record on good ground is moderate. Barrier 2 should give him a ground-saving run, but he'll need gaps from off the speed.

Our price $9.00 · SP $11.00 · Harry Bentley

A Happy Valley course-and-distance specialist with a win and a third from three tries. He drew the coveted inside gate and carries just 53kg. His first-up run over 1800m in this grade was better than seventh suggests, because he chased the pace and should be fitter now. The inside draw should give him a soft trail behind the leaders. A sound each-way type rather than a confident winner.

Our price $9.00 · SP $16.00 · Lyle Hewitson

The overlay. His Class 3 form has been better than his finishing positions, with traffic trouble in his placings and an eighth last start that was a solid run. A very fast pace should set the race up for his finish.