Ballarat tips and results

Our price $2.60 · SP $2.40 · Thomas Stockdale

Proven at the trip and booked with a rider who goes well here. The knock is that he settles a long way back and will need a genuine tempo to pick them up on a track that has favoured handy runners.

Our price $4.50 · SP $8.50 · Liana Wood

The horse most likely to lead and, in a race expected to be run at a steady tempo, that gives him a big say. Consistent all prep with a string of seconds, including a run to a winning standard on soft ground. The query is the step out to 2648m — he has never been past 2050m — and he is still chasing a first win.

Our price $7.50 · SP $16.00 · Declan Bates

Each-way value who gets the gun draw in barrier one and owns the best wet-track staying form of the outsiders, including a close third over 2400m on soft ground. Drops sharply in class and has the stamina for 2648m from his jumping background. The knock is that his recent racing has been over obstacles and he is still a maiden on the flat.

Our price $3.80 · SP $5.50 · Will Gordon

The most reliable maiden in the field: beaten narrowly at Sale and Mornington, including a closing second on soft ground that reads as the best performance here. Drawn the inside and likely to sit handy, which fits Ballarat's strong on-pace lean. Queries are a cold stable and a first attempt at 1500m, but on form and clock she is the one to beat.

Our price $4.00 · SP $4.80 · Mark Zahra

The obvious worry is a moderate last-start effort back in May and the long break.

Our price $6.50 · SP $10.00 · Nathan Punch

A consistent type who has repeatedly run well without winning, including a luckless fourth at Sandown on soft where she was held up. The midfield-to-back settling pattern is the risk at a track that favours the handy.

Our price $5.00 · SP $7.50 · Dakotah Keane

She maps nicely from an inside gate and gets in light with the claim, and her recent soft-track jumpout was encouraging. The absence of race form is a genuine unknown, but the stable intent and suitable setup make her the second-best winning chance and a natural place play while she proves herself.

Our price $3.20 · SP $3.50 · Stephanie Hateley

The clear form pick. She jumps and settles right on the speed from gate four, exactly the profile that wins 1000m races here on a soft track, and she has already won on rain-affected ground.

Our price $13.00 · SP $41.00 · John Allen

The value runner. He is the only last-start winner in the race, saluted on soft ground, and has a long history in the wet. He settles handy, which suits Ballarat, and a top local rider is booked.

Our price $4.20 · SP $3.40 · Holly Durnan

The class runner, dropping back from a stronger grade, a previous second-up winner who has also won on soft ground and is drawn nicely. Her best form lines are the strongest in this line-up. The concern is her deep-closing style on a track that punishes horses coming from well back, plus top weight, although a claim helps.

Our price $10.00 · SP $14.00 · Neil Farley

Honest veteran who was a closing third in a stronger race at Mornington last start on soft ground. Has a solid record on rain-affected going and over 1200m and rarely runs a bad race.

Our price $4.60 · SP $7.50 · Jack Hill

Consistent mare who is proven at the trip and on rain-affected ground. She charged home from well back for second in a stronger grade at Coleraine last start, and two runs back won nicely over 1400m on a soft track. Drawn to sit handy from gate five, which suits how this track plays, and her regular rider has a strong record on her. Hard to see her missing the frame.

Our price $14.00 · SP $61.00 · Toby Atkinson

He is proven over 1400m and handles soft ground, and his best run at this trip on a soft track was a strong placing to a winning standard against better company. His recent form reads poorly but the drop in grade and gear changes could spark sharp improvement. A genuine roughie for the exotics.

Our price $4.20 · SP $5.50 · Will Gordon

The one to beat. In-form mare who has won two of her last four and is unbeaten in two tries at the mile, both wins coming on rain-affected ground. She maps to settle in the front half, exactly where Ballarat's soft-track profile rewards runners, and the lightly-raced five-year-old still has upside. The knock is a jump in grade from much weaker races, but she's the most likely winner.

Our price $6.00 · SP $12.00 · Linda Meech

Improving stayer who brings the strongest recent form in the field, winning on soft ground last start and placing before that. His closing style is the concern, as Ballarat on a soft track strongly favours horses settled closer to the speed, and this is a clear rise in class. If the tempo is honest he'll be charging late and rates a genuine place chance.

Our price $9.00 · SP $10.00 · Teodore Nugent

Rates on class and the clock as the best-performed horse here, having won both his wet-track starts and already scored at this level. The negatives stack up, though: first-up after 145 days, top weight of 63kg and a wide gate, settling well back on a track that punishes deep closers. Respect, but the setup makes him vulnerable.

Our price $4.40 · SP $4.80 · Declan Bates

He settles in the first half of the field, where Ballarat winners come from, and the Maher stable and rider are both going well at this track.

Our price $10.00 · SP $26.00 · Ryan Hurdle

A genuine wet-tracker who does his best work on soft ground, with a solid winning and placing record on it. He races on the pace, the profile this track rewards, and he drops back to a mile after a couple of longer assignments.

Our price $6.50 · SP $13.00 · John Allen

The Maher and Allen combination is a plus and both go well at Ballarat. The knock is that he resumes from a long break and steps back to a mile from staying trips, so he may spot them a start.

Our price $13.00 · SP $21.00 · Holly Durnan

He has a strong mile run on his record at a higher grade and is a proven soft-track winner, which matters on this surface. The drop in class helps and his rider is in good form with a solid record at Ballarat. The concern is that he gets a long way back in his races, a hard way to win here, and his recent runs over longer trips were plain.