Punt like a Pro, without the know!
Tasmania · Friday 9 October 2026
Our top pick won 1 of 8 races at Launceston. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
top pick wonanother tip wonno tip won
Awesome Orphan has produced the best recent clock in this field, running to a winning standard at Devonport then sprinting well in a sharp 1100m maiden here on Soft 5 last week. The step up to 1400m is her main query, but a slowly-run race with only one true leader lets her settle forward and economically from barrier 6.
Timely Needs is the safest form horse in the field, running third over 1420m here last start and holding placings at the track, trip and on soft ground. He maps to settle handy in a race with little pace, and his finishing effort was strong last time.
He was in the firing line at the 400m here last time and could not sustain it, and his Devonport fourth was his only run that approached a competitive level.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5 | Timely Needs | 9 | Chloe Wells | Stuart Gandy | 58.5kg | $3.90 |
| 2nd | 9 | Sounds Of Peace | 4 | Daniel Ganderton | Glenn Stevenson | 56.5kg | $2.60 |
| 3rd | 3 | Shines Discreetly | 2 | Erica Byrne Burke | Matthew Brown | 58.5kg | $4.40 |
| 4th | 7 | Awesome Orphan | 6 | Anthony Darmanin | Michael Trinder | 56.5kg | $7.00 |
| 5th | 6 | Timmie Lad | 7 | Kelvin Sanderson | Brendan McShane | 58.5kg | $11.00 |
| 6th | 4 | Smithy | 12 | Luke P Dempsey | John Blacker | 58.5kg | $17.00 |
| 7th | 1 | One Star Dream | 3 | Kirra-Lee Lane | Yassy Nishitani | 56.5kg | $21.00 |
| 8th | 8 | Cheeky Tilly | 1 | Hayley McCarthy | Brendan McShane | 56.5kg | $91.00 |
| 9th | 12 | Popsy Doodle | 8 | Lauryn Bingley | Barry Campbell | 54kg | $51.00 |
| Scr | 2 | Rousing Levi | 10 | Leanne Gaffney | 58.5kg | ||
| Scr | 10 | Steel Shosha | 11 | John Luttrell | 56.5kg | ||
| Scr | 11 | Office Award | 5 | John Blacker | 56kg |
Olindah has only raced in two-year-old stakes races and drops sharply into a maiden where her Launceston Soft 5 effort would be good enough to win most editions. She trialled better than anyone here, has the best jockey and a 4.5kg pull on the geldings. The main risk is the run of the race from barrier 9, but she settled handy in her races and should be close enough.
Effrontery sat second early and was beaten just over two lengths at Launceston first up, holding her ground in a race that produced three of today's rivals. She steps up to 1200m second up for the best trainer in the race, who has a proven record of improving horses with a run under them.
On raw ability Kion's Kingdom is a genuine chance, having run a Launceston maiden second that would win this race. He trialled well and handles soft ground. The problem is everything around him: a six-month gap between races, the outside barrier at a track that punishes wide draws over 1200m, a winless jockey, and the likelihood he has to work hard to cross from gate 13. He faded badly in his only 1200m run here when leading.
Vabuiagi has the best wet-track form in the race, running to a winning standard when third at Hobart over 1200m on Soft 5 and placing in two of three soft-track starts. She is a consistent on-pacer who should sit fourth or fifth if Darmanin can slot in from the wide gate, which is the main query.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 13 | Olindah | 9 | Erica Byrne Burke | Jessie Bazan | 54kg | $1.90 |
| 2nd | 10 | Sh'bourne Hiflyer | 7 | Chloe Wells | Stuart Gandy | 56.5kg | $61.00 |
| 3rd | 12 | Vabuiagi | 12 | Anthony Darmanin | Stuart Gandy | 56.5kg | $12.00 |
| 4th | 9 | Miss Strat | 8 | Lauryn Bingley | Bradley Franklin | 56.5kg | $7.00 |
| 5th | 1 | Alpine Alfie | 1 | Troy Baker | Adrian Duggan | 58.5kg | $41.00 |
| 6th | 3 | Kion's Kingdom | 13 | Hayley McCarthy | John Keys | 58.5kg | $6.00 |
| 7th | 11 | The Red She Devil | 5 | Hayley Spitse | Barry Baker | 53.5kg | $12.00 |
| 8th | 6 | Conscious Bias | 3 | Kelvin Sanderson | Barry Baker | 56.5kg | $61.00 |
| 9th | 5 | Wounded Eagle | 4 | Kyle Hocking | John Keys | 58.5kg | $13.00 |
| 10th | 7 | Effrontery | 6 | Kirra-Lee Lane | Glenn Stevenson | 54.5kg | $9.50 |
| 11th | 8 | El Loco Kallos | 10 | Luke P Dempsey | Brendan McShane | 56.5kg | $61.00 |
| Scr | 2 | Kimba | 2 | Bradley Franklin | 58.5kg | ||
| Scr | 4 | Noble | 11 | Sigrid Carr | 58.5kg |
He is a genuine wet-tracker with two wins on soft ground, a consistent placegetter, and his last-start second here after leading in Class 3 company is strong form for Class 2. The race shapes with a lone cheap leader in Nicalbi, so he should get the perfect trail or share the lead at a track where on-pace runners win most of the time.
However he is not the top pick because the race sets up badly for him. With Nicalbi likely to lead uncontested, the tempo should be slow and he will be giving the on-pacers a big start at a track where backmarkers almost never run them down.
Snowdonia is a consistent mare who has drawn perfectly in barrier one and should be positioned midfield on the fence, exactly where Launceston winners come from. She was beaten a nose here last start and places more often than not.
Two starts back he led and won on Soft 5 at Hobart in a run that stacks up well against this field, and he returns to the on-pace pattern that suits Launceston from an inside gate in a race with one clear leader. The combination of an in-form jockey and a trainer who fires at this track adds appeal. The mile is unproven and he can be disappointing, so an each-way play is the right approach.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Thickskinned | 7 | Anthony Darmanin | Mark Ganderton | 59kg | $2.20 |
| 2nd | 4 | Stollaway Ned | 8 | Erica Byrne Burke | John Blacker | 58.5kg | $4.40 |
| 3rd | 1 | Regal Hunter | 11 | David Pires | Jessie Bazan | 59kg | $7.50 |
| 4th | 7 | Cavaretta | 4 | Hayley Spitse | Barry Campbell | 54kg | $6.50 |
| 5th | 3 | Rippington | 2 | Luke P Dempsey | Barry Campbell | 58.5kg | $15.00 |
| 6th | 8 | Snowdonia | 1 | Troy Baker | Stuart Gandy | 56kg | $8.50 |
| 7th | 10 | Sky Eagle | 10 | Lauryn Bingley | John Blacker | 54kg | $21.00 |
| 8th | 11 | Pacific Witness | 6 | Hayley McCarthy | John Blacker | 54kg | $81.00 |
| 9th | 5 | Nicalbi | 3 | Indi Bowles | Bradley Franklin | 53.5kg | $31.00 |
| Scr | 6 | Sir William | 9 | Angela Brakey | 57.5kg | ||
| Scr | 9 | Lyco Reco | 5 | Yassy Nishitani | 54kg |
He is the quickest beginner and should cross or sit outside the inside leader, a winning spot at this track.
Novalargo has the best class profile in the race, having placed in Class 3 company at this track and run to a competitive level every time she has been in form. She has won over this trip at Launceston, handles soft ground and comes from the strongest stable at the meeting. The question is fitness after a long gap since her last race, and the middle draw gives her work to do to get into a forward spot.
She is not the top pick because her racing pattern is the main problem: she gets back, and Launceston sprints are rarely won from behind the leaders, particularly with only a moderate tempo expected.
He handles soft ground and has shown he can sit handy, which matters at Launceston. The step to Class 2 and the big weight are the risks, but a lightly raced four-year-old on this trajectory should keep improving.
Who's In Dev ticks every box the Launceston track profile asks for: drawn one, races on the speed, and has a strong soft-track placing record. Her recent runs have not been quite up to a winning standard here, so she is a strong place chance rather than a clear winner. Jockey unconfirmed is a data limitation.
Lawrenny Boys is the most likely leader and is drawn to hold that spot, which is the single strongest winning pattern at Launceston. He has placed eight times from fifteen starts, nearly all on soft ground, and has run to a winning standard over this trip. He is a career non-winner type and his last run was poor, but the map and conditions suit him better than anything he has struck recently.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 8 | Jenni The Cat | 2 | Erica Byrne Burke | Drew Tyson | 56kg | $2.45 |
| 2nd | 6 | Novalargo | 10 | Kirra-Lee Lane | Glenn Stevenson | 54.5kg | $3.40 |
| 3rd | 2 | Just Plain Nuts | 13 | Hayley Spitse | Dylan Clark | 55.5kg | $4.00 |
| 4th | 4 | Course Of Action | 4 | Troy Baker | Sigrid Carr | 56.5kg | $10.00 |
| 5th | 9 | Lawrenny Boys | 3 | Kyle Hocking | John Keys | 56kg | $13.00 |
| 6th | 13 | Rare Oro | 7 | Robyn Lynch | John Luttrell | 50kg | $91.00 |
| 7th | 10 | Platinum Reggae | 14 | Christopher Pang | Trent Wells | 52kg | $19.00 |
| 8th | 5 | Halen | 11 | Indi Bowles | Graeme McCulloch | 52.5kg | $81.00 |
| 9th | 7 | Team Heist | 8 | Hayley McCarthy | Dylan Clark | 56.5kg | $41.00 |
| Scr | 1 | Alfarino | 5 | Imogen Miller | 59kg | ||
| Scr | 3 | Dennyson | 9 | John Blacker | 58kg | ||
| Scr | 11 | Geegees Downpour | 6 | Stuart Gandy | 55.5kg | ||
| Scr | 12 | Outbush | 12 | John Luttrell | 54kg | ||
| Scr | 14 | Who's In Dev | 1 | Glenn Stevenson | 56kg |
She has an excellent record at Launceston with three wins from seven and handles the wet. The inside draw helps enormously; if she can settle midfield rather than last she is a genuine winning chance. The extra weight, a jockey in poor form and her back-marking tendency keep her third.
Zuni produced the strongest performance in this field last week, charging home from last in a Bm60 over 1100m here on Soft 5 under near identical conditions. She is a Launceston 1200m specialist with a solid wet record and drops to 55kg. The pace map has her with the second-best early speed, so Kirra-Lee Lane should be able to work across to sit outside Who's In Dev.
He drops from a C3 handicap into a Bm60, maps to sit third behind the two leaders from barrier 5 and gets the blinkers for a second time, which often brings improvement. His last two runs were competitive against better fields and he has two wins over 1200m. The unknowns are real: a first look at soft ground, 61kg and an inexperienced rider.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5 | Geegees Downpour | 6 | Anthony Darmanin | Stuart Gandy | 57.5kg | $3.90 |
| 2nd | 8 | Rapids Ahead | 7 | Indi Bowles | Graeme McCulloch | 50kg | $61.00 |
| 3rd | 1 | Wild Dancer | 5 | Akimasa Phanthura | Glenn Stevenson | 57kg | $5.00 |
| 3rd | 6 | Material Madam | 1 | Chloe Wells | Stuart Gandy | 57.5kg | $8.00 |
| 5th | 4 | Who's In Dev | 4 | Daniel Ganderton | Glenn Stevenson | 58kg | $3.90 |
| 6th | 2 | Street Diva | 3 | Robyn Lynch | Jessie Bazan | 56kg | $4.60 |
| 7th | 3 | Cool Heart | 2 | David Pires | Jessie Bazan | 59kg | $7.00 |
| Scr | 7 | Zuni | 8 | Mark Ganderton | 57kg |
He maps as the lone leader on a track that heavily favours front-runners, with a slow tempo expected. The extra weight is the only real query.
She improves second up and gets the extra distance, an inside draw and a stalking position behind the leader. Her Launceston win on soft ground in March confirms she handles the conditions.
Stone Cold Stunner has the best Launceston 1400m record in the race and will be on the speed, which is where you want to be here. The problem is her recent form, with three plain efforts including an eight-length defeat last start, and her soft-track record is ordinary.
Her record on soft ground is exceptional for consistency, she has placed twice from three at this track and distance, and she drops sharply in class with a light weight. The negatives are real: she gets back on a leader-friendly track, the tempo looks slow, and the stable is cold.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Stone Cold Stunner | 3 | Kirra-Lee Lane | Glenn Stevenson | 58kg | $3.90 |
| 2nd | 6 | Within Sight | 1 | Erica Byrne Burke | John Blacker | 54kg | $13.00 |
| 3rd | 5 | Fiorente De Legend | 5 | Kyle Hocking | John Luttrell | 55kg | $15.00 |
| 4th | 3 | Chicane | 2 | Christopher Pang | Michael Trinder | 55.5kg | $16.00 |
| 5th | 1 | Simply Deep | 6 | Anthony Darmanin | Barry Campbell | 60.5kg | $2.10 |
| 6th | 4 | Sevillana | 4 | Troy Baker | Sarah Cotton | 57.5kg | $3.90 |
Merlin Beach has produced the two best runs in this field, both on soft ground at Hobart, and he led this race's rivals until the last strides at Launceston a fortnight ago. Barrier one and a slow tempo let Darmanin park him behind Johnnie Pinch and pounce.
Native Clan has finished within a length of Merlin Beach in all three of their recent meetings, winning two of them, and she beat him on this track two weeks ago. She races handy, handles soft ground and should be in the first three on the turn, which is where Launceston winners come from. The unproven jockey is the main query. Clear value each-way.
Happy Clan is the most reliable wet-tracker here and has run honest races behind the top two every time, but he keeps finding one or two too good. In a five-horse field settling last is only a few lengths off the lead, which helps him, but the slow tempo and 61kg work against him. He is a sound place chance with the weak jockey booking and the big weight keeping him from a win recommendation.
Sugoi Legend is a thin value case rather than a strong one. He was beaten under three lengths by this same group on this track last start with the same light weight, draws inside again and will not be far away if the pace is slow.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Happy Clan | 2 | Robyn Lynch | John Keys | 57kg | $6.00 |
| 2nd | 3 | Johnnie Pinch | 4 | Erica Byrne Burke | John Keys | 57kg | $2.70 |
| 3rd | 6 | Sugoi Legend | 3 | Hayley McCarthy | Rowan Hamer | 54kg | $12.00 |
| 4th | 4 | Native Clan | 5 | Kyle Hocking | John Keys | 57kg | $8.50 |
| 5th | 2 | Merlin Beach | 1 | Anthony Darmanin | Glenn Stevenson | 58kg | $2.30 |
| Scr | 5 | Bailed | 6 | Kelvin Sanderson | Glenn Stevenson | 56.5kg |
From barrier 1 he should sit second behind Eaglefurther in a slowly-run race, which is exactly the right spot on this track.
Eaglefurther is the obvious danger because the map falls her way. She is the only true leader, the tempo should be slow and leaders win more often than anyone at Launceston. She also won here over this trip on this going last week. The concern is quality: her wins have come against weaker fields and none of her recent runs reached the standard this grade usually demands.
Tuskegee has the best record in the field, but the quality of it is largely synthetic-track form. His one turf run on this going at this level was plain, beaten five lengths here last month under the same big weight he carries today. He stays at the mile and his stable is strong at Launceston, so he is the next most likely winner on class and ability.
Sir Jag is a battler who rarely wins but keeps running into placings, especially on wet ground over this trip. He finished ahead of Tuskegee at this level on Soft 5 here last month and meets him six kilos better.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Eaglefurther | 5 | Kirra-Lee Lane | Glenn Stevenson | 56kg | $6.00 |
| 2nd | 1 | Tuskegee | 6 | Luke P Dempsey | Barry Campbell | 60.5kg | $12.00 |
| 3rd | 2 | Alpine Fury | 1 | Daniel Ganderton | Glenn Stevenson | 59kg | $1.24 |
| 4th | 5 | Sir Jag | 4 | Kyle Hocking | John Luttrell | 54.5kg | $16.00 |
| Scr | 4 | Chef's Kiss | 2 | Glenn Stevenson | 55kg | ||
| Scr | 6 | I'm Chev | 3 | Glenn Stevenson | 54kg |
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