Happy Valley tips and results

Our price $7.00 · SP $5.30 · Nichola Yuen

The most reliable placegetter in the race with four placings on end, including a second over this exact course and distance. He races forward, carries just 52.5kg, and the map lets him sit in the first few without a hard battle for the lead. The problem is he is winless from 31 starts and loses Purton for an out-of-form apprentice, so he is more likely to run into the placings again than finally break through. Place only.

Our price $8.00 · SP $17.00 · Angus Chung

An old campaigner who has run to a winning standard twice in his last three starts and knows this track and trip better than anything in the field. His last start from barrier 13 at Sha Tin can be forgiven. Today he gets gate 4, a light weight and the ideal spot tracking two moderate leaders, which is exactly the setup that produces upsets at Happy Valley.

Our price $9.00 · SP $9.60 · Vincent Ho

Vermilion Tempest ran a fair seventh in this race first-up, finishing not far from the placings while sitting midfield. He has yet to place here in five tries, so this is a small speculative each-way play rather than a confident one.

Our price $3.80 · SP $3.40 · Luke Ferraris

Decision Link produced the standout run of this field last week, running second in a strongly run Class 4 over this exact course and distance after racing handy. That followed a solid effort the start before, so the trend is clearly upward and he already has a win here over 1650m.

Our price $7.00 · SP $3.50 · Andrea Atzeni

Red Brick Warrior dropped to Class 5 and bolted in from the front over this course and distance, running a time that would be competitive at today's level. He goes up a grade but gets in with just 54.5kg and has already run to a good standard in Class 4 here earlier in the year.

Our price $3.80 · SP $5.20 · Derek Leung

With three leaders likely to cut each other's throats, the race should be set up for a strong finisher from midfield.

Our price $7.00 · SP $9.70 · Jerry Chau

A genuine Happy Valley 1200m horse whose July win at this level and his strong fourth in June show he can reach a winning standard when the race is run to suit. The speed map projects a very fast tempo with three leaders, which is ideal for a horse who sits midfield and finishes.

Our price $3.50 · SP $3.70 · Brenton Avdulla

Brownneedsfurther won here at this distance first up three weeks ago from a midfield spot and his best efforts at Happy Valley are clearly superior to anything else in this field. A genuine fast tempo from two leaders plays to his strengths.

Our price $8.00 · SP $10.00 · Keith Yeung

Our price $2.80 · SP $2.30 · Vincent Ho

The 1650m was arguably short of his best and he still won, so 1800m suits. He is lightly raced and improving while most rivals are exposed. The weight rise and his get-back style are the risks, but the form case clearly leads this field.

Our price $5.50 · SP $4.70 · Zac Purton

He gets everything in his favour today: a low draw, Purton, a moderate tempo he can sit just off, and a track where forward runners drawn inside do best. His Valley record is strong and he has already won over this course and distance. The last-start failure came from barrier 12 and can be forgiven.

Our price $12.00 · SP $50.00 · Richard Kingscote

Talents Ambition is seriously underpriced on recent form. The likely explanation is Purton leaving for Silvery Breeze and distance doubts, but he maps to lead with only one other genuine speed horse and the Valley favours forward runners. If he controls the tempo and gets a soft lead, he will be very hard to run down. Worth a small each-way interest.

Our price $5.00 · SP $9.70 · Harry Bentley

Gameplayer Elite is the form horse in this race. His last three starts at Happy Valley over 1200m in Class 4 produced a win and two narrow seconds, and each of those runs was good enough to win an average race at this level. The predicted hot tempo from four leaders suits his midfield racing style perfectly, and barrier 6 lets Bentley find cover.

Our price $7.50 · SP $12.00 · Karis Teetan

Speedy Smartie is the hardy old placegetter of the field. He comes back from Class 3 after a second there last start and has placed in over a third of his 42 starts, including a May run at this grade under 61kg that was good enough to win most Class 4 races. The wide gate and top weight make winning difficult, and he is more a horse who finds the frame than the line. Teetan and his second-up record keep him in the top three for place purposes.

Our price $12.00 · SP $23.00 · Vincent Ho

Perfect Triumph is a classic Fownes improver. His only Happy Valley start in July saw him charge from near last for third at 33-1 from a wide gate, and that run was better than it looked. Blinkers go on for the first time, Vincent Ho has been firing at this track, and the four-leader speed map gives a midfield runner something to chase down.

Our price $4.00 · SP $4.00 · Vincent Ho

The form horse. Fortunate Son won this exact race configuration three weeks ago, running the strongest race in the field and beating China Win, Fivefortwo, Seraph Gabriel and The Auspicious. The 4kg rise is the main query, but he has carried weight and raced on the speed before when second here in June.

Our price $6.00 · SP $6.50 · Jerry Chau

Fivefortwo was the eye-catcher last start, charging from the back to run second behind Fortunate Son in a race that was run fast early. The problem is that today maps very differently, with one genuine leader and a likely slow tempo that will make it hard for a horse that settles near last.

Our price $9.00 · SP $15.00 · Derek Leung

Forever Folks is the overlay. His second at Sha Tin ten days ago was as good as anything in this race, including the top pick's last win, and he did it racing forward after a sluggish start. Today he drops to 53.5kg at a track where he has already won over 1800m.

Our price $3.50 · SP $6.80 · Andrea Atzeni

Wukong Jewellery was strong to the line when third over this course and distance last start, maps perfectly from barrier 2 behind three confirmed leaders, and has a strong second-up record. His March second at Sha Tin was the best effort in this field.

Our price $8.00 · SP $16.00 · E C W Wong

He is the quickest away in the race, which helps offset barrier 11, and he has placed on his only Valley visit.

Our price $6.50 · SP $4.60 · Zac Purton

He has been competitive but beaten in Class 3 before.

Our price $12.00 · SP $32.00 · Brenton Avdulla

Symbol Of Strength is a frustrating type but his fitness is up after a strong finishing fifth at Happy Valley first up, and his profile improves second up. The projected hot speed plays to his finishing style.