Punt like a Pro, without the know!
South Australia · Friday 16 October 2026
Our top pick won 3 of 7 races at Penola. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
top pick wonanother tip wonno tip won
Calm The Press is the only genuine leader in a slowly-run sprint on a track that rewards runners in the first three at the turn. He is fit, has been racing against similar maidens, and his form is the most solid of the experienced runners. Winless in 13 starts, but he's the one best placed to control the race and the form stacks up best among those with a record.
Tai Po Jewel brings natural early speed and a fitness-proving trial second. Her one race start was on very heavy ground, was hampered at the start and she finished fourth.
First-up after a long break and dropping back to 1075m, he should be handy from the inside and a slow tempo could help him.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 8 | Lucifer's Girl | 4 | Shayleigh Ingelse | Paul Preusker | 54kg | $2.20 |
| 2nd | 1 | Arizona Wildfire | 1 | Harry Grace | Sue and Jason Jaensch | 58kg | $7.00 |
| 3rd | 2 | Calm The Press | 2 | Tala Hutchinson | Sue and Jason Jaensch | 58kg | $6.50 |
| 4th | 7 | Bubble Art | 3 | Alysha Warren | Sue and Jason Jaensch | 54kg | $11.00 |
| 5th | 9 | Tai Po Jewel | 9 | Stacey Metcalfe | Nicole Irwin | 54kg | $13.00 |
| 6th | 6 | Stella's Charm | 7 | Margaret Collett | John Hickmott and Carrina Riggs | 56kg | $51.00 |
| 7th | 5 | Antonette | 5 | Anna Jordsjo | Scott Irlam | 56kg | $12.00 |
| 8th | 4 | Hasta La Barood | 8 | Campbell Rawiller | Sue Murphy | 58kg | $5.50 |
| 9th | 3 | Egyptians Reign | 6 | Andrew Stead | Roslyn Day | 58kg | $19.00 |
He ran second on Soft 5 over this trip last month and has been handy or in front in his recent runs.
A solid, consistent runner who has been close in recent starts at this level. The stable and jockey combination is reliable, and he should be racing in the first half of the field. He looks a safe place chance and a threat to win.
He was beaten late in two of his three runs. I rank him third behind two horses who are better proven on the surface or who are better value.
An overlooked runner whose last start was a lot better than the result suggested. She finished hard on Soft 5 from a poor barrier and a slow start and is likely to be a better horse second-up. She will need luck and a fast enough tempo from a back-of-field position.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 12 | Stepify | 6 | Shayleigh Ingelse | Paul Preusker | 54kg | $9.00 |
| 2nd | 6 | Never Pegasus | 4 | Harry Grace | Sue and Jason Jaensch | 58kg | $3.10 |
| 3rd | 5 | Mr Nipper | 3 | Alana Kelly | Daniel Kelly | 58kg | $21.00 |
| 4th | 2 | Dali's Picasso | 8 | Kayla Crowther | James and Lisa Dodgson | 58kg | $3.40 |
| 5th | 7 | Willebob | 9 | Connor Murtagh | Sarah Rutten | 58kg | $5.50 |
| 6th | 4 | Iamthedevilselbow | 10 | Rochelle Milnes | Kristi Evans | 58kg | $7.50 |
| 7th | 15 | Grandstraz | 12 | Valentin Le Boeuf | Rodney Foster | 56kg | $101.00 |
| 8th | 8 | Cocoa Charm | 5 | Stacey Metcalfe | Belinda O'Loughlin | 56kg | $10.00 |
| 9th | 3 | Dukey | 7 | Campbell Rawiller | Sharni Julian | 58kg | $26.00 |
| 10th | 14 | Miss Narranga | 2 | Brooke King | Shae Norton | 56kg | $101.00 |
| 11th | 1 | Buckethead | 1 | Cian Macredmond | Aaron Peterson | 58kg | $71.00 |
| Scr | 9 | Don't Say Do | 14 | Jessica Booth | Stephen Theodore | 54.5kg | |
| Scr | 10 | Fairline | 15 | Lauren Stojakovic | Roslyn Day | 56kg | |
| Scr | 11 | Just Comet | 13 | Andrew Stead | Shayne and Chelsea Cahill | 56kg | |
| Scr | 13 | La Moma | 11 | Kate Walters | Wayne Walters | 56kg |
The only true front-runner in a race with a moderate tempo, on a track where horses in the first three at the 400m win far more often than backmarkers. He has the best soft-ground record in the field and already won over this trip on soft this campaign. Favouritism is warranted given the speed map and wet-track credentials, and he is the most likely winner on form.
A consistent type who rarely runs a bad race at this level and sits in a handy spot behind the leader.
A handy-running type who has a soft-ground win over 1400m and gets a favourable run just behind the leader. The last start was poor, but he looks to have excuses and should improve second-up.
Likely to be sitting handy on a track that favours pace, carrying a light weight. She has shown plenty of ability when allowed to lead or sit handy, and a second-up run could see her improve.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 10 | Piwhane | 7 | Harry Grace | Gary Boyce | 54kg | $7.50 |
| 2nd | 11 | Causeweluvadelaide | 8 | Margaret Collett | Sarah Rutten | 54kg | $10.00 |
| 3rd | 4 | Thermodynamic | 6 | Stacey Metcalfe | Nicole Irwin | 58.5kg | $3.30 |
| 4th | 8 | Forever Waiting | 9 | Kayla Crowther | Darryl Dodson | 54.5kg | $9.50 |
| 5th | 9 | Salsbury Hill | 10 | Kate Walters | Wayne Walters | 54.5kg | $14.00 |
| 6th | 3 | Zadows Landing | 2 | Connor Murtagh | David Page | 59kg | $9.50 |
| 7th | 1 | Sacramental | 1 | Cian Macredmond | Andrew Bobbin | 60.5kg | $7.00 |
| 8th | 6 | Safe Bet | 4 | Alysha Warren | Hazel Fertier | 56.5kg | $12.00 |
| 9th | 12 | Fiorente Rules | 11 | Rochelle Milnes | Bonny Tootell | 54kg | $7.00 |
| 10th | 2 | Savsonic | 5 | Jessica Booth | Stephen Theodore | 58kg | $20.00 |
| Scr | 5 | Stargust | 12 | Campbell Rawiller | Joanne Mugavin | 57.5kg | |
| Scr | 7 | Tour De Moon | 3 | Andrew Stead | Shayne and Chelsea Cahill | 56.5kg |
Gusty Way gets the nod on form and wet-track credentials. He won twice on heavy ground a few runs back and was only narrowly beaten in another, so Soft 5 is no concern. Penola form is solid, he carries a light weight and Rawiller knows the track. The wide draw is a worry, but a slow tempo should let him slot in handy. Rates the most likely winner and is fair value.
The step up in class and an inside draw are the concerns, and she has a thin soft-track record.
She is not our top pick, though. She is a backmarker in a race likely to be slowly run on a track where deep runners rarely win, and she has only one win from ten starts.
Brazen Queen is a lightly raced four-year-old who won on Soft 5 and was an unlucky second in another soft-track maiden. She carries only 54kg with a handy barrier and a jockey who does well at Penola. She is a small each-way chance.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Gusty Way | 9 | Campbell Rawiller | Sue and Jason Jaensch | 56.5kg | $5.00 |
| 2nd | 8 | Brazen Queen | 4 | Alysha Warren | Darryl Dodson | 54kg | $14.00 |
| 3rd | 5 | Artissi | 5 | Stacey Metcalfe | Nicole Irwin | 54.5kg | $10.00 |
| 4th | 1 | Dothraki | 3 | Polly Brewster | David Page | 59kg | $13.00 |
| 5th | 9 | Flying Straz | 1 | Valentin Le Boeuf | Rodney Foster | 54kg | $17.00 |
| 6th | 7 | Vanlee | 6 | Shayleigh Ingelse | Michael Hickmott | 54kg | $3.90 |
| 7th | 10 | Madam Jeanette | 10 | Lauren Stojakovic | Shane and Cassie Oxlade | 54kg | $4.00 |
| 8th | 6 | Squad | 8 | Teagan Voorham | Michael Ruberry | 54.5kg | $4.60 |
| 9th | 11 | Silky Smooth | 2 | Brooke King | Shae Norton | 54kg | $151.00 |
| Scr | 2 | Grand Host | 7 | Kayla Crowther | Matthew Seyers | 61kg | |
| Scr | 4 | Zatanna | 11 | Scott Whittle | 56kg |
Smokin' Rohie rates best on form. He is a hard-trying, soft-track stayer who drops from Bm70 company and has run honest placings at 2000m and further. His stable is in great form. He is likely to settle back, but a moderate tempo and a 60kg impost suit him better than most rivals' weights.
He should be handy, which is the best place to be here. The concern is a history of fading when pressed in front, and one win in 20 starts.
Distillery bounced back in blinkers with a brave wide second at Halidon and should hold his place in the run. He races handy and the jockey is in fine form. Soft ground and 60kg are the concerns, as his two soft starts include a heavy defeat. He rates as a place chance with some win appeal if he handles the surface.
Sharma Princess is the overlay. She has twice won at this track, once at this trip, and tackles much weaker company than recent runs. A light weight and a forward position suit Penola's bias towards on-pace runners.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4 | Smokin' Rohie | 9 | Melissa Julius | Nell Carter | 60kg | $13.00 |
| 2nd | 12 | Sharma Princess | 4 | Tala Hutchinson | Lindsay Cadzow | 55.5kg | $9.50 |
| 3rd | 2 | Distillery | 10 | Shayleigh Ingelse | Jorden McMahon | 60kg | $5.50 |
| 4th | 8 | Punchin | 13 | Campbell Rawiller | Gary Boyce | 58kg | $13.00 |
| 5th | 6 | Flying Shelby | 6 | Kayla Crowther | P Anthony Jones | 58.5kg | $21.00 |
| 6th | 3 | Magnetic Edge | 14 | Alysha Warren | John Hickmott and Carrina Riggs | 60kg | $10.00 |
| 7th | 7 | Tee Eight | 3 | Polly Brewster | Jessica Tzaferis | 56.5kg | $9.50 |
| 8th | 5 | Back Me Up Benny | 8 | Rochelle Milnes | Kristi Evans | 59.5kg | $4.00 |
| 9th | 1 | Ahvejay | 5 | Connor Murtagh | Richard Nicholson | 60kg | $12.00 |
| 10th | 11 | Landmark Alley | 11 | Teagan Voorham | Kimberley Boyce | 56.5kg | $7.50 |
| 11th | 13 | Suenami Rose | 1 | Alana Kelly | Libby Halliday | 54kg | $51.00 |
| 12th | 9 | Easy Beast | 12 | Lauren Stojakovic | Sophie Logan | 57.5kg | $17.00 |
| Scr | 10 | Deficit | 7 | Brooke King | Dean Saxon | 57kg | |
| Scr | 14 | Johnny Cigar | 2 | Shuichi Terachi | Sue Murphy | 55kg |
Dazelles has been running to a good standard in lower-grade company and was placed on soft ground in her last two starts. She drops in class, gets a claim and settles handy, which suits a slowly-run sprint at Penola. Stable and jockey stats are poor and the gear changes are an unknown, which keeps confidence moderate.
Lysander is a proven soft-ground performer with three wins on it. He ran a solid second last start and is only five days between runs. His on-pace style should see him close to a probable slow tempo, which suits the track.
Melissa Kate has a good record at Penola and at this trip, and she is a proven performer on soft and heavy ground. She has raced consistently in tougher grades and gets class relief here.
Anrushka is the only genuine leader in the race and should get an easy lead in a slowly-run sprint at a track that favours the front end. She drops in class and has won on soft ground.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4 | Dazelles | 7 | Jordyn Weatherley | Hazel Fertier | 56.5kg | $4.80 |
| 2nd | 3 | Casino Showgirl | 6 | Connor Murtagh | Roslyn Day | 58kg | $5.50 |
| 3rd | 13 | Lysander | 3 | Stacey Metcalfe | Garret Lynch | 56kg | $5.00 |
| 4th | 6 | Lunarshot | 15 | Teagan Voorham | Alexander Justice | 56.5kg | $16.00 |
| 5th | 11 | Unwind | 10 | Rochelle Milnes | Kristi Evans | 55.5kg | $8.50 |
| 6th | 9 | State Of Maine | 12 | Harry Grace | Charlotte Parker | 55.5kg | $9.50 |
| 7th | 1 | Astrodean | 5 | Kayla Crowther | James and Lisa Dodgson | 60kg | $5.50 |
| 8th | 10 | Sunset Prayer | 11 | Brooke King | Dean Saxon | 55.5kg | $16.00 |
| 9th | 7 | Melissa Kate | 9 | Kate Walters | Wayne Walters | 56.5kg | $17.00 |
| 10th | 8 | Triple Oh | 1 | Campbell Rawiller | Stephanie Lacy | 56.5kg | $51.00 |
| 11th | 5 | Anrushka | 2 | Margaret Collett | Richard Nicholson | 57.5kg | $21.00 |
| 12th | 2 | Quizlet | 8 | Cian Macredmond | Aaron Peterson | 59.5kg | $41.00 |
| Scr | 12 | Sports Choice | 16 | Tala Hutchinson | Garret Lynch | 55kg | |
| Scr | 14 | Squagaga | 14 | Valentin Le Boeuf | Rodney Foster | 55kg | |
| Scr | 15 | Dodgy Element | 4 | Darryl Dodson | 54.5kg | ||
| Scr | 16 | They Call Me Dusty | 13 | Paul Preusker | 54.5kg |
Her Soft 5 second at Mt Gambier from the tail was the best run in the field, and a likely fast tempo with three leaders should give her a target. She does need luck from a short straight, but the barrier is good and she is fit.
Midfield, mid barrier, light weight. Fair value as a place chance.
A winning run last start was only just missed, and the horse is fit with a recent second on the board. Back at Penola on wet ground with a fast pace likely, it should be finishing hard.
A mare who has won at Penola and has strong wins on her record, but is a little rusty after a break and unproven over the trip. The class drop and mid barrier put her in the right place if the tempo holds up.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 7 | Hubristic | 7 | Connor Murtagh | Garret Lynch | 58.5kg | $13.00 |
| 2nd | 5 | Tudaya | 4 | Melissa Julius | Peter Chow | 59.5kg | $6.50 |
| 3rd | 13 | Black Bugatti | 8 | Rochelle Milnes | Lee Creek | 57kg | $9.50 |
| 4th | 8 | Hasta La Prince | 15 | Teagan Voorham | Sue Murphy | 58kg | $8.50 |
| 5th | 1 | Bellsym | 2 | Campbell Rawiller | Paul Preusker | 60kg | $5.00 |
| 6th | 11 | On The Map | 5 | Tala Hutchinson | Lindsay Cadzow | 57.5kg | $4.60 |
| 7th | 14 | Detoron | 6 | Polly Brewster | Heath Montgomerie | 52kg | $15.00 |
| 8th | 6 | By Nine | 12 | Margaret Collett | Leighton Colgrave | 59kg | $51.00 |
| 9th | 3 | Rippa Buddy | 11 | Alana Kelly | Daryl Cannon | 60kg | $8.50 |
| 10th | 12 | Drink Then Kiss | 10 | Kate Walters | Wayne Walters | 56.5kg | $31.00 |
| 11th | 4 | Rob The Bank | 3 | Cian Macredmond | Jyi Lukey | 59.5kg | $8.50 |
| 12th | 9 | Aussie Pharoah | 1 | Harry Grace | Robert Schultz | 57.5kg | $26.00 |
| Scr | 2 | Our Beau | 14 | Stacey Metcalfe | Garret Lynch | 60kg | |
| Scr | 10 | Fantastic Host | 9 | Stephanie Wright | John Hickmott and Carrina Riggs | 53.5kg | |
| Scr | 15 | I Run On Air | 16 | Stacey Metcalfe | Roslyn Day | 56kg | |
| Scr | 16 | Archdeacon | 13 | Garret Lynch | 55.5kg |
Before the races, not after
Our top three picks and a value pick for every race, with assessed prices, speed maps and the analysis behind them. Free for 7 days.