Warrnambool tips and results

Our price $3.30 · SP $2.70 · Tom Ryan

His last-start second at Warrnambool over 1700m was a solid effort and he should relish the step to 2000m. He maps to sit handy in a race that may lack early pressure, which suits. The concern is he has had plenty of chances and is unproven on soft ground.

Our price $8.00 · SP $13.00 · Steven Pateman

The likely leader from the inside gate. The speed map suggests a slow tempo, which could allow him to control the race and steal a break. His recent form is not strong, including a well-beaten run last time, and he has never raced over 2000m. However, the race shape is a significant positive and his stable and jockey both do well here.

Our price $4.80 · SP $3.90 · Cillin Leonard

Ran out of her skin here last time over this trip, leading and only collared right on the line. She's going the right way and handles a soft track. From the inside gate she can take up a handy spot and a slowly-run race plays into her hands. The knock is a modest overall win tally and a rider who hasn't won lately, but that latest effort is the best piece of fresh form in the race and stamps her the one to beat.

Our price $5.50 · SP $4.60 · Tom Ryan

She maps to sit handy in what looks a slowly-run race. But she's been well beaten in five straight, including her last two here, and can pull hard.

Our price $6.50 · SP $5.00 · William McCarthy

A reliable type who lands in the placings more often than not, with a couple of recent seconds to his name, one of them on a soft track. He has a pair of minor placings over this course and should appreciate getting back onto drying ground after the heavy surface that beat him last start. The knock is that he wins rarely and can settle too far back in a slowly-run race, so he's more a place-getter than a winner.

Our price $8.50 · SP $16.00 · Steven Pateman

Consistently in the thick of it, beaten a whisker at Coleraine two starts back and then closing for third in a stronger race.

Our price $3.00 · SP $2.50 · Declan Bates

Shane Jackson's filly owns the best piece of 1400m form in this race — she led and was only collared in the last 150m here last month, running to a winning standard. She failed on a bottomless heavy track at her next start and that is best forgiven with the ground drying to a soft five. With no other speed engaged she should get an easy lead and be hard to run down.

Our price $5.50 · SP $8.50 · Dean Yendall

Jason Warren gelding who did well to get through the line first-up at Sale after being left flat-footed when the sprint went on. Out to 1400m with two trials under his belt, he should map into a far better spot from gate five and is open to sharp improvement.

Our price $6.00 · SP $19.00 · Adam McCabe

Little Gangster is a lightly raced three-year-old whose third on soft ground at Mildura two starts back was a much better effort than his last run suggests. He has race fitness, stays at 1000m, and maps to settle in midfield.

Our price $6.50 · SP $6.00 · John Allen

Honest maiden who was beaten under a length here two weeks ago over the short course and has not run a bad race this time in. Second-up he should be ready for the rise to 1200m, draws to sit just off the speed and has a rider who goes well at Warrnambool.

Our price $10.00 · SP $21.00 · Campbell Rawiller

Honest front-running mare whose wet-track record is the best in this race — four seconds from five starts on soft going. Her recent runs have all been close up and she should be able to stride to the front or take the trail from a handy gate, which matters in a moderate-tempo maiden.

Our price $5.00 · SP $5.00 · Declan Bates

The progressive one. She led throughout at Avoca over this trip and put five lengths on a maiden field, and the clock says it was a genuine performance. She was found to be lame and agitated when she failed here in the spring, so that run can be forgiven. With 54.5kg and the stable in form, she maps to sit third behind a hot tempo and be dangerous if she handles the ground.

Our price $5.50 · SP $4.40 · Dean Yendall

His debut win here was dominant, leading and drawing clear over this trip, yet that was a maiden and he steps sharply in grade against hardened older sprinters with a fast tempo forecast.

Our price $16.00 · SP $11.00 · Alana Kelly

The replay of his last run is the clue: he dropped out early, stayed to the inside and charged home to miss by a whisker in this very grade over this trip. That was at 26-1 and he lines up at 23-1 again here. A fast tempo forecast up front gives him something to chase.

Our price $10.00 · SP $21.00 · Linda Meech

A veteran with a good record at Warrnambool who looks likely to lead uncontested in a race that suits on-pace runners. Last start was a fresh-up run that should have sharpened her up.

Our price $3.40 · SP $8.50 · Zac Moore

She is at her best on wet ground and has been honest in recent starts, including a second here last start. She can sit just behind the speed in a moderately run race and gets weight relief.

Our price $4.20 · SP $3.40 · Shayleigh Ingelse

A solid chance who has been strong on wet tracks and should be handy in the run. The trainer is well suited to this track.

Our price $6.50 · SP $13.00 · John Allen

A lone leader in a moderate tempo has an obvious advantage, and he has already won on soft ground and first up. The poor Bendigo run on drier ground is a concern.

Our price $18.00 · SP $41.00 · Amy Herrmann

The one overlay in the field. She should be handy in a race with only one other likely leader.