Belmont Park tips and results

Our price $4.50 · SP $3.60 · Natika Riordan

Our price $7.00 · SP $10.00 · Patrick Carbery

Barrier 2 and 56kg provide tactical advantages in a slow tempo race. However, he's never won first up and faces a significant class rise to Open grade with no Belmont experience.

Our price $2.80 · SP $3.90 · William Pike

Yorga Pride presents as the most likely winner based on compelling statistical evidence. Her second-up record (67%) combined with exceptional Belmont 1200m form (75% strike rate) and proven soft track ability makes her ideally suited. The Pike booking and first-time gear changes indicate stable confidence. Last start can be forgiven as a typical fresh-up run, and she's shown she improves significantly second-up. Class edge dropping from Listed to BM72+ with the right conditions aligning.

Our price $5.50 · SP $9.00 · Steven Parnham

The Calabrese is a proven soft track specialist with a perfect 2-from-2 record on rain-affected ground, including a Belmont win on Soft 6. His recent form is solid with a close-up 5th last start showing he's race-fit.

Our price $7.00 · SP $10.00 · Brad Parnham

His 67% strike rate on soft tracks at Belmont 1200m is elite-level, and today's Soft 7 surface plays directly to his strengths. Last start can be forgiven as a first-up run, and he's shown he can win second-up.

Our price $2.00 · SP $1.70 · William Pike

Mt Shirataku is the standout selection despite the class rise and distance query. The booking of William Pike (40% with horse, 20% with Williams stable) is a major positive. While the step to 1400m is untested and the 61kg top weight in Open grade is a query, his class and current trajectory suggest he can handle both.

Our price $7.00 · SP $10.00 · Brad Parnham

Crucially, she's proven at 1400m with a win at Northam on Soft 5 and a place from 4 starts at the trip. Her Soft record is adequate (1-1-1 from 6), and she has experience at Belmont (1-1-2 from 9). However, the jockey change to Brad Parnham (no previous rides, poor recent form) is a concern, and she lacks the upside of the younger, progressive types.

Our price $8.00 · SP $11.00 · Holly Watson

Hedawood is a proven track/distance specialist with 2 wins from 4 starts at Belmont 1200m, including a Soft 5 victory. The wide barrier is a concern, but on Soft at Belmont, run-style is nearly neutral and backmarkers are viable. Race fitness is a positive with only 7 days between runs.

Our price $12.00 · SP $10.00 · Natika Riordan

The significant class drop from BM60+ back to Rest 1 Metro Win is a major positive, as is the return to his preferred Soft conditions. His autumn form included 3 straight wins, 2 on Soft tracks. Recent failures can be attributed to racing above his grade.

Our price $3.50 · SP $5.50 · Cassey Martinan

Startling Star is the form pick based on proven ability at this track/distance on Soft going. Won here 2 weeks ago at 2200m on Soft 6, and previously won at 2100m at Belmont. Her 40% win rate on Soft tracks is the best in the field among proven performers. Progressive 4yo mare with only 11 starts shows upward trajectory. The jockey change from Pike to Martinan is a minor concern, but her form and suitability override this.

Our price $10.00 · SP $21.00 · Shaun Mc Gruddy

Duchees Demerit is the reliable placegetter with a perfect record at this track/distance (2 runs for 2 seconds). His 50% place rate on Soft tracks and recent 2nd at 2100m last start demonstrate current form and suitability. While he's never won at this track/distance, his consistency makes him a strong each-way proposition.

Our price $7.00 · SP $6.00 · Jason Whiting

Savvy Ruler won impressively at this track/distance last start but faces a significant class test stepping from BM54+ to BM66+. The progressive 4yo mare has won 3 of her last 4 starts including her maiden just 3 starts ago, showing rapid improvement. However, this is a big jump in class and she's very lightly raced with limited wet track exposure. The jockey change from Galati to Whiting is also a concern.

Our price $7.00 · SP $4.80 · Brad Parnham

With Discretion is the intriguing gear change runner with blinkers removed for the first time. The barrier 6 draw is ideal, sitting in the optimal 5-8 zone for Belmont Soft conditions. His class credentials include a Listed placing and Class 1 win. However, significant concerns exist: he's never won second up (0 from 2), never won on Soft (0 from 2), and never won at 1400m (0 from 3). The blinkers-off gear change is a wildcard that could unlock improvement or have no impact.

Our price $9.00 · SP $11.00 · Natika Riordan

Monte Tremezzo represents the value play as a 3yo filly dropping significantly in class from Open/Listed grade to BM66+. The 7.5kg weight advantage (51.5kg) is substantial and her 1400m record shows a win at the distance. The class drop is the key angle - she's been competitive in stronger grades and now meets easier opposition. Concerns include her 0-from-2 second-up record, barrier 11 draw, and jockey Riordan's poor recent form (5%). Each-way appeal given the class edge and strong last start performance.

Our price $3.50 · SP $5.50 · Chanel Cooper

Simply Thinkin' is the standout selection based on her exceptional soft track record (4 wins from 8 starts, 50% strike rate) and last-start BM66+ win at 1650m on Soft 6. The barrier draw (8) is ideal for Belmont Soft conditions, sitting in the proven 5-8 sweet spot. While stepping up to BM72+ and the jockey change from Johnston-Porter to Cooper are concerns, her progressive profile (lightly-raced at 30 starts with strong earnings trajectory) and proven soft track ability outweigh these negatives. The slow tempo predicted suits her closer style, and Soft track data shows run-style is nearly neutral here, favouring class over early speed.

Our price $9.00 · SP $6.00 · Lisa Staples

Battle Commander is a value roughie selection based purely on his outstanding 1600m credentials (11:5-1-1) and ideal barrier 6 draw. The distance is clearly his optimal trip, and the barrier sits perfectly in the 5-8 sweet spot for Belmont Soft. However, the soft track record is a genuine concern - he's placed but never won on the surface. The slow tempo suits his style, and if he can overcome the soft track hoodoo, he's a genuine winning chance. This is a speculative value play on distance specialization and barrier advantage.