Rotorua tips and results

Our price $8.50 · SP $7.90 · Stephan Karnicnik

The clear improver of the maiden brigade. Barrier one, a 2kg weight concession and a first crack at 2200m after 27 days off all point to further progress. The jockey booking is the clear negative and she is unproven at the trip, so she is a place proposition rather than a win chance.

Our price $9.50 · SP $12.20 · Jay Kozaczek

The overlay of the race. Barrier 2 and the 66kg allotment give her every chance to be handy in a slow-run staying maiden, and the step to 2200m should suit a mare who keeps finishing off.

Our price $4.00 · SP $7.30 · Hamish Mc Neill

Roc Up Ralph fits the Arawa Park Heavy winner profile better than anything else here: he placed last start (in fact won it) on Heavy 10, he is fresh at 17 days, and he has been placed twice at this course and distance. His wet record of 23:4-6-2 is the deepest in the race and he handles 68kg, having won under that exact weight a fortnight ago. Mc Neill stays aboard after their winning ride. Barrier 10 and a sharp drop in trip are the only real queries.

Our price $6.00 · SP $6.40 · Joshua Parker

His Heavy record is 18:3-2-3 and he owns the best career strike rate in the field at 19%, with wins this campaign over 2400m on Heavy 10 and 2800m in a hurdle.

Our price $6.00 · SP $8.20 · Jay Kozaczek

Arawa Park on Heavy rewards course-and-distance proven runners above all else, and Raajoices is the only runner here with a winning record at both — 3 wins from 7 at the track and 2 wins from 5 over this exact course and distance. Every one of his three career wins came on Heavy.

Our price $3.00 · SP $3.90 · Tom Wigram

The most reliable form line in a modest Restricted 60. Sir Fergus has been placed or close-up in three consecutive Bench. 65 and Rest. His distance record of 3: 1-0-2 and his soft-track record of 1: 1-0-0 both read well for today's Soft 6.

Our price $4.20 · SP $4.20 · Joe Nishizuka

The classiest, most distance-suited runner in a weak Restricted 60. Arawa Park on Soft rewards horses that are clearly classier than their rivals and proven at the trip, and Poetic Justice qualifies on both counts after campaigning in Bench 65 company over 2100-2400m. Second up he is 4:0-3-0, drops from Rest. 66, sheds 10.5kg from last start and draws barrier 1. The 1-from-25 record is the obvious flaw, but the weight, class and barrier swing is the largest in the race.

Our price $7.50 · SP $4.90 · Hayley Hassman

The least exposed runner in the race and the one whose profile improves most today.

Our price $8.00 · SP $7.00 · Masahiro Hashizume

Our price $4.50 · SP $5.60 · Jasmine Fawcett

Arawa Park on Heavy rewards proven course form above all — winners had won at this track roughly 30% of the time versus 18% for the field. Takeachance is the only runner here with a win at the course, and it came on Heavy 10 in this exact Restricted 60 grade. Her two career wins are both on Heavy. The recent form line looks flat, but those runs were 1150m-1400m sprints, well short of her winning trip.

Our price $6.50 · SP $4.90 · Hayley Hassman

The tactical key to the race. With no genuine leaders engaged and a slow tempo forecast, Camacho is the one runner who can stride forward and dictate on the bog. 65 into Restricted 60 with a claiming rider who has won on him before. Barrier 7 sits in the optimal band. The 1950m is untried and last start was poor, so he is a place proposition.

Our price $6.00 · SP $12.90 · Jack Taplin

The overlay. She comes out of a Woodville Steeple humping 66.5kg over 4800m into a Restricted 60 at 55.5kg over 1950m, a huge concession in both weight and trip. Taplin strikes at 30% for the stable.

Our price $3.30 · SP $3.00 · Joe Doyle

Arawa Park Heavy rewards proven distance form above all (winners had won at today's trip 47% versus 32% of the field), and no rival matches this profile. Barrier 11 is the flaw and the reason he is not shorter, but Doyle can push forward from the 1400m start.

Our price $5.50 · SP $4.80 · Jasmine Fawcett

Barrier 1 and 17-day freshness are helpful. Against him, seven starts without a win and a flat fifth last time under identical conditions temper the enthusiasm — this profile is a placegetter until proven otherwise. Fawcett's poor Arawa Park record is a further caution. Solid each-way rather than win material.

Our price $9.00 · SP $19.20 · Masahiro Hashizume

Barrier 2 is his best draw in months, all four starts have come on heavy ground, and Hashizume is riding well.

Our price $7.00 · SP $14.30 · Masahiro Hashizume

Lightly raced and improving with the strongest connections statistic in the race - Hashizume wins on nearly a third of his rides for the Alexanders. Barrier 12 and the absence of a placing keep confidence moderate, but the upside here is greater than the exposed form horses.

Our price $8.00 · SP $13.70 · Sam McNab

Three career starts, all on Heavy, including a second at Tauranga on Heavy 10. Barrier 9 is the main negative.

Our price $4.50 · SP $4.90 · Masahiro Hashizume

The reservations are that his 1400m record is 0 from 4 and his soft-track record is 3 starts without a placing, with all his best work coming on genuinely rain-soaked Heavy ground.

Our price $6.50 · SP $5.50 · Erin M Leighton

The last-start 12th at Te Rapa came over an unsuitable 1600m from a wide gate, so it is forgivable. The negatives are a modest 1-from-14 strike rate and no placings from three soft-track runs, which caps enthusiasm about her winning, but the draw and course affinity make her a sound each-way proposition.