Eagle Farm tips and results

Our price $5.50 · SP $7.00 · Bella Youngberry

Win Star brings the strongest raw class in the race, having contested Listed and Group 2 grade before dropping right back to Maiden company. She trialled well at Beaudesert 12 days out. The negatives are real — 3 starts for no placings and a first-up record of 2 starts for no wins or placings — which caps enthusiasm at second rather than first.

Our price $7.00 · SP $5.50 · Jag Guthmann-Chester

Barrier 4 falls in the most productive draw band at Eagle Farm on Good, and Guthmann-Chester's retention after riding the trial reads as intent. Everything is projection rather than proven, which caps confidence, but the shape fits the progressive, well-drawn winner profile this track rewards.

Our price $6.00 · SP $11.00 · Ben E Thompson

Three starts have produced two thirds and he now steps to 1200m for the first time, which reads as an obvious progression for a Snitzel gelding closing off strongly over 1000m. Barrier 12 is the flaw and keeps him third rather than higher, but the raw closing speed and proven track-and-going form give him a live winning hope.

Our price $3.60 · SP $4.40 · Jag Guthmann-Chester

The most solid form line in a maiden full of non-winners. Gate three lets Guthmann-Chester park her in the first three, which is exactly the winning shape at Eagle Farm on Good ground. Three placings from five at 1200m confirm the trip. The only concern is her habit of running into the placings rather than winning.

Our price $4.00 · SP $3.60 · James Orman

Irreverent brings the strongest black-letter form to the race with three seconds and a third across Victorian maidens, and six runs on good ground have yielded five placings. The Gollan transfer plus ear muffs suggests a horse being aimed at this. Against her is a 125-day let-up, no first-up win from two attempts, a tame last start and a midfield map on a track rewarding prominent positions. Sound each-way value at best, so I take the safer option.

Our price $8.00 · SP $21.00 · Cejay Graham

Blinkers coming off reverts her to the gear worn during her best efforts, and she maps to sit handy from gate seven.

Our price $3.20 · SP $6.00 · Jace McMurray

The most credible form horse in the race. Top weight and 116 days off are the only genuine queries; barrier 4 gives him the map on an on-pace-friendly surface.

Our price $5.50 · SP $5.00 · Ben E Thompson

The reservation is the map: she profiles as the sole genuine backmarker in a race projected to run a slow tempo, which is the hardest pattern to win from at Eagle Farm on Good.

Our price $13.00 · SP $41.00 · Cejay Graham

The distance record of 5:1-2-0 also holds up in this grade.

Our price $6.00 · SP $12.00 · Jag Guthmann-Chester

Fitness and distance suitability line up here. Gate 4 lets him take a forward position, which matters on this surface.

Our price $8.00 · SP $16.00 · James Orman

The classic Eagle Farm placegetter who is now getting the distance he wants. The 1840m is untried but the way he has been finishing over shorter trips suggests the step up helps rather than hurts.

Our price $4.40 · SP $2.80 · Leah Martyn

Siesta is the horse with the strongest track-and-distance credential in the race, winning over this course and trip on July 1 and following up with a close second at Doomben. The reservations are the modest outside gate, the first-time blinkers and the fact she has placed rather than won in four Good-track starts.

Our price $11.00 · SP $14.00 · Emily Lang

Our price $2.10 · SP $2.70 · James Orman

The class act of the race dropping sharply in grade. Her 1000m record of 5 starts for 3 wins and 2 seconds is the outstanding distance line in the field, and all three wins plus two BM74 seconds came on Good ground, which she gets today. The Caulfield failure came at 1100m on Soft 7 - conditions that have consistently found her out - so it is easily forgiven. Handy gate, sharp trip, right grade.

Our price $7.00 · SP $20.00 · James Orman

A reliable, honest sprinter who runs well fresh, with a first-up line of 5:2-1-1. Barrier 9 is the obstacle in a very fast-tempo sprint, but with genuine pace up front he can sweep home from the one-out line.

Our price $11.00 · SP $26.00 · Emily Lang

With three genuine leaders setting a very fast tempo, her finishing pattern is ideally suited.