Belmont Park tips and results

Our price $5.50 · SP $4.20 · Brad Parnham

The form line is the best in the race on paper — a fourth in Open company over this course and distance on a rain-affected surface only a fortnight ago, and he gets substantial class relief today. Against that, he has never won, he has begun awkwardly at both starts and hung badly last time, and his rider is out of form.

Our price $2.90 · SP $2.60 · William Pike

The most credible Class 3 form in the race. Her 1000m record of 15:3-3-1 is the best in the field and Pike's engagement at 21% Belmont strike is a clear intent signal. The wet-track record is the one blemish, but she has placed on Soft and gate 2 gives every tactical option.

Our price $5.00 · SP $3.60 · Natika Riordan

Won over this exact course, distance and Soft going three weeks ago when he led throughout, and has the 8:1-1-1 record at track-and-distance to back it up. The 52kg with claim is a genuine advantage against 60kg topweight. The negatives are the Class 1 to Class 3 rise and the recent Belmont positional bias showing leaders winless from 15, so he needs a soft lead rather than a contest with Great Promise and Earth God.

Our price $2.60 · SP $1.80 · William Pike

Miller readies them fresh and Pike is retained from gate 3. Concerns are the 287-day gap, an unproven wet record and a get-back pattern on an on-pace-leaning track, but raw ability and connections make her the most likely winner.

Our price $5.80 · SP $8.00 · Lucy F Fiore

Class relief is obvious after facing Listed company, and this mare has placed five times in maiden and Class 1 grade. However barrier 11 is the least productive draw band here, she is first up from 192 days, and she has never won in 11 attempts. Ideal for place purposes rather than at the win.

Our price $9.00 · SP $21.00 · Brayden Gaerth

The overlooked runner of the race. That is the only form line in the race achieved at today's exact trip and surface.

Our price $3.60 · SP $6.50 · Brad Parnham

The most credible form line in the race.

Our price $6.00 · SP $4.80 · Lucy F Fiore

Assessed on the debutant proxy framework rather than penalised for absent form. Bivouac progeny are precocious and suited to sprint trips, and barrier 5 falls squarely in Belmont's strongest band.

Our price $9.00 · SP $21.00 · Paul Harvey

Her last start reads terribly, but she was wide throughout over 1000m, a trip well short of her best. Barrier 4 lets her take up her natural forward position on a track that rewards exactly that. Wet ground is unproven, hence value rather than confidence.

Our price $3.50 · SP $3.60 · Brad Parnham

The most condition-suited runner in the race. Barrier 3 keeps her in the productive part of the track at Belmont, her Belmont third over 1000m confirms she handles the circuit, and with only five starts she remains open to improvement.

Our price $11.00 · SP $21.00 · Steven Parnham

Every specific condition she has ever won under is present today: Class 1, Belmont Park, 1200m, rain-affected. Her track and distance record is 3 starts for 1 win and her soft record 5 starts for 1 win. Barrier 4 and a forward pattern suit the on-pace lean on a slow-tempo Belmont sprint.

Our price $8.00 · SP $20.00 · Jefferson Tsang

The overlooked tactical advantage in the race. With no genuine leader engaged and a slow tempo forecast, she can stride forward from barrier 5 and dictate on a surface where Belmont data shows leaders outperform every other running style.

Our price $5.00 · SP $4.60 · Chris Parnham

Our price $7.00 · SP $6.50 · Jefferson Tsang

He now drops significantly in class and his soft-track record reads 4 starts for 1 win and 1 second. The reservations are barrier 11 in the track's weakest draw band, a slow projected tempo that blunts a closer, and just one win from fourteen starts. Solid place claims.

Our price $7.50 · SP $7.00 · Steven Parnham

That gear change is the plausible explanation rather than luck. He draws barrier 4 today instead of gate 13, and both his soft-track and distance records read 1 start for 1 win.

Our price $2.90 · SP $3.10 · Holly Nottle

The most credible winner on form. Rainline won over this trip on a Soft 6 last start in Open grade and now drops significantly in class. Her wet record reads 7 starts for 2 wins, 1 second and 1 third, and her 1400m record is 7:2-2-0. Top weight of 58.5kg is the one genuine query, but the class relief more than offsets it.

Our price $5.50 · SP $7.00 · William Pike

Holds the strongest course-and-distance profile in the race: 6 starts at Belmont over 1400m for 1 win, 2 seconds and 1 third. Pike staying aboard at his 21% Belmont strike rate is a firm intent signal.

Our price $6.50 · SP $10.00 · Paul Harvey

He was a solid third first up at Belmont on Soft 5 under 58.5kg and now gets 3kg relief plus a class drop. Barrier 1 and forward speed fit Belmont's on-pace lean perfectly. Against him: the 1000m-to-1400m jump is severe, his second-up record is 3:0-1-0, and Harvey strikes at only 5% here.

Our price $3.20 · SP $2.80 · Holly Nottle

With one genuine leader and a slow tempo forecast, his forward pattern is the right one here.

Our price $8.50 · SP $14.00 · Lucy F Fiore

Lucy Fiore is in excellent touch and knows him well. Each-way value.