Punt like a Pro, without the know!
New Zealand · Wednesday 26 August 2026
Our top pick won 4 of 7 races at Riccarton Park Synthetic. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
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Kessey is the clear form horse. Her last six starts read 3-4-4-3-2, a genuinely improving line, and she is the only runner in the field with proven staying ability at 2200m on this synthetic. Barrier 7 falls in the middle band the recent bias data favours. The jockey statistics are the one soft spot, but the form gap is real.
Gasgal brings the deepest synthetic experience in the field, with 16 starts on the surface producing a second and a third. Barrier 6 and just 54.5kg help. The 35-start maiden status caps enthusiasm, but she is a legitimate place hope and the map should give her every chance.
His track record of 5 starts for a third confirms he is at home here.
Barrier 2 gives her the economical run this track rewards.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4 | Kessey | 7 | T R Moseley | Ms P Robson | 56.5kg | $2.00 |
| 2nd | 2 | Gap It | 4 | M Hashizume | J C Blackadder | 58.5kg | $11.20 |
| 3rd | 7 | Salacia Princess | 5 | Ashlee Strawbridge | M E Cunneen | 53.5kg | $7.40 |
| 4th | 6 | Gasgal | 6 | Jack Taplin | Ainsley Mcleod | 54.5kg | $13.50 |
| 5th | 8 | The Peony Xpress | 2 | B E Grylls | S E Dring | 56.5kg | $10.80 |
| 6th | 5 | Shocking Secrets | 3 | Sima Mxothwa | Andrew Carston | 53.5kg | $6.20 |
| 7th | 1 | Rufus | 8 | B M Murray | M L Price | 58.5kg | $9.50 |
| 8th | 3 | Patch Of Sunshine | 1 | Ohara Najib | Ms K C Murphy | 56.5kg | $25.00 |
The map is the case. With no genuine leaders engaged, Ayumi is the one runner projected to cross and dictate, and Riccarton Synthetic data shows leaders winning a third of races with a 78% place rate while backmarkers are winless. Fit off a five-day backup, she deserves favouritism.
Nothing in this field runs closer to its best more often. She maps perfectly — barrier 3, minimum weight, and a stalking spot just off the lone leader, which the track profile identifies as the safest winning position here.
The class relief is real — she has held her own in Open and Listed grade and drops sharply here — and barrier one is the best gate in the race on a track that rewards saving ground. But three warning lights are on: 143 days off with a modest first-up record, zero synthetic experience, and a jockey without a win from 25 rides for the stable or 18 at the track.
Barrier 6 lets her stalk in the first half of the field, the profile this track rewards.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Ayumi | 4 | Ashlee Strawbridge | D M Walsh | 56kg | $2.50 |
| 2nd | 6 | Our Sallyann | 3 | Ohara Najib | M & M Pitman | 52kg | $8.70 |
| 3rd | 2 | Steezy | 1 | Sima Mxothwa | Andrew Carston | 56kg | $2.00 |
| 4th | 4 | Mystic Ocean | 6 | B E Grylls | M & M Pitman | 54.5kg | $11.10 |
| 5th | 5 | Sailor Girl | 5 | Brandon May | T J Yesberg | 54.5kg | $28.30 |
| 3 | I'm Feeling Lucky | 2 | Jack Taplin | M & M Pitman | 52.5kg |
The most credible synthetic-mile form in the race. She maps to settle in the first half of the field from gate 6, which is the profile this track rewards at the 400m.
The Walker/Bergerson stable and Moodley engagement signal intent, and barrier 3 suits. But she is first up from 143 days with an unplaced first-up record, has never raced on synthetic, and finished 15th at her last outing.
The rail draw suits this tactical circuit.
Formline is the strongest in the race on raw evidence, having beaten Unshackled home when running second over this course and distance three weeks ago. Barrier 4 suits and the improving trend is genuine. The reservations are real: 23 starts without a win marks him as a chronic placegetter, he shoulders top weight of 58.5kg, and the jockey switch to Hashizume is not a positive.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 6 | Zambrosia | 3 | T C Moodley | Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson | 56.5kg | $1.90 |
| 2nd | 3 | Illusionist | 2 | Ashlee Strawbridge | Brenna Cook | 55.5kg | $48.10 |
| 3rd | 5 | Unshackled | 6 | B E Grylls | T J Yesberg | 56.5kg | $10.50 |
| 4th | 1 | Noivern | 4 | M Hashizume | J C Blackadder | 58.5kg | $4.60 |
| 5th | 8 | White Palace | 8 | Jack Taplin | Lisa Young | 54.5kg | $34.20 |
| 6th | 2 | Loose Knickers | 5 | K Bakker | J Land | 56.5kg | $26.70 |
| 7th | 4 | Cocomora | 1 | Y Atchamah | Anna Furlong | 56.5kg | $5.20 |
| 8th | 7 | Zashubo | 7 | Sima Mxothwa | Andrew Carston | 53.5kg | $13.70 |
The claiming rider's strike rate is a genuine concern and the wide gate adds tactical risk, but the class and time evidence is clearly the strongest in the race.
Harlows Pride is the most reliable improver in the race. The trip suits, the rider is retained, and only limited exposure suggests more to come.
She has the ideal draw and retains the rider. She is a legitimate place chance on last-start merit, but the maiden-grade volatility rule caps enthusiasm about a repeat win chance.
She now drops in grade, gets the minimum 52kg, draws barrier 2 on a track rewarding handy inside runs, and is a three-year-old with normal second-start improvement ahead of her.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Call To Arms | 7 | Sima Mxothwa | Andrew Carston | 55.5kg | $1.40 |
| 2nd | 7 | Pure Story | 2 | K Bakker | J C Blackadder | 52kg | $55.50 |
| 3rd | 3 | Vienna Game | 3 | B E Grylls | Anna Furlong | 56.5kg | $12.10 |
| 4th | 2 | Chino's Boy | 4 | Ashlee Strawbridge | J & K Parsons | 55.5kg | $4.30 |
| 5th | 5 | Lilybet | 1 | C K Kwo | Ms G Robinson | 56.5kg | $31.70 |
| 6th | 4 | Harlows Pride | 6 | M Hashizume | N R Mitchell | 56.5kg | $11.70 |
| 7th | 6 | San Reno | 5 | T C Moodley | J & K Parsons | 56kg | $24.10 |
Cape Horn brings the strongest recent line into this: a half-length second over this exact course and distance three weeks ago under 59kg, in a Rest. 60 that reads a shade stronger than today's. He is the only runner in the field with a synthetic win (7:1-1-1) and now drops a kilo. Barrier 5 lets Taplin sit just off Jack Attack, which is the profile this track rewards — within range at the 400m rather than swooping. Modest career strike rate and cold jockey form are the reservations, but the form case is clear.
The map is the case. Jack Attack is the only runner flagged as a genuine leader, he draws barrier 1, and the projected slow tempo lets him dictate — at a track where leaders have won a third of recent races with a 78% place rate. He has already won over 1400m here (4:1-0-0 at track and distance) and drops from Bench. 65 to Restricted 60. Two plain runs at 1200m temper enthusiasm, and his career strike rate is only 6%, so place cover is the sensible way in.
The least exposed runner in a field of well-known quantities. Untried at 1400m and lumbered with 59kg are genuine questions, and the synthetic sample is one run, so he rates a place proposition rather than a win play.
Barrier 4 in a small field gives Grylls, who rides this track well, an economical spot just off the lone leader — exactly the profile this surface rewards. The risks are real: first up from 115 days with no first-up win, and 2:0-0-0 on synthetic.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 6 | Miraqua | 3 | Alyssa Parris | D B Frye | 53.5kg | $7.80 |
| 2nd | 7 | Ardee Boy | 7 | Y Atchamah | Ainsley Mcleod | 56kg | $25.20 |
| 3rd | 4 | Right Of Appeal | 2 | Brandon May | Ms B M Woodsford | 58.5kg | $14.70 |
| 4th | 2 | Jack Attack | 1 | Ashlee Strawbridge | R D Holmes | 56.5kg | $3.80 |
| 5th | 5 | Warrior Of War | 4 | B E Grylls | Danny Crozier | 58kg | $14.70 |
| 6th | 1 | Cape Horn | 5 | Jack Taplin | M & M Pitman | 58kg | $1.60 |
| Scr | 3 | The Fed Express | 6 | K Mudhoo | Andrew Carston | 59kg |
The strongest form profile at the trip and surface. His only recent blemish came on a Heavy 9 over an unsuitable 1800m from gate 13 with 60kg, which can be forgiven entirely. Back to his pet track, distance and surface with a 1.5kg drop and a middle draw that suits, he maps to be within striking range at the 400m.
Sarissa is honest and suited by the return to 2200m after two runs over a short-of-best 1600m here, and gate 3 gives her the stalking position this track rewards.
Enormously consistent at the trip with six top-three finishes from her last 10, and she is a course and distance winner from July. The knock is obvious: one win from 25 starts means she finds one more often than not, so she is an each-way proposition rather than a confident winning play.
The clearest overlay in the race. His course and distance record of 11 starts for two wins and four seconds is the most credentialled at the venue, and gate 12 sits in the middle band the track data prefers.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Roca Mile | 9 | Ashlee Strawbridge | R E Didham | 56.5kg | $3.30 |
| 2nd | 5 | Light Of Plutus | 1 | K Mudhoo | L Callaway | 56.5kg | $15.10 |
| 3rd | 7 | Sarissa | 3 | T C Moodley | N Wigley & K Milnes | 56kg | $2.90 |
| 4th | 4 | Private Treaty | 8 | M Hashizume | R E Didham | 56.5kg | $9.00 |
| 5th | 2 | Devil In Disguise | 12 | Alyssa Parris | L M Robinson | 55kg | $5.70 |
| 6th | 11 | Honoka | 6 | Sima Mxothwa | J & K Parsons | 51kg | $21.10 |
| 7th | 8 | El Fuego | 4 | B M Murray | M L Price | 56kg | $63.70 |
| 8th | 9 | La Evita | 2 | B E Grylls | Ms K C Murphy | 54kg | $31.70 |
| 9th | 3 | Allthekingshorses | 5 | Jack Taplin | Ainsley Mcleod | 55kg | $20.30 |
| 10th | 6 | Aviva | 7 | Ohara Najib | R Mckay & A Harrington | 54kg | $32.70 |
| 11th | 10 | Wal | 11 | Brandon May | Ainsley Mcleod | 54kg | $78.00 |
| Scr | 12 | Ruby Sunrise | 10 | S E Dring | 54kg |
Nothing in this field can match her course-and-distance evidence: 30 starts at Riccarton Synthetic over 1600m for four wins and three placings, plus a 39-start synthetic record of 5-3-1. 65, is the strongest recent 1600m line in the race and she now drops to Restricted 60 with the minimum 52kg. The 20 Aug 14th came from barrier 13 and is easily forgiven. Slow tempo suits a horse that knows every metre of this circuit.
The most credentialed synthetic horse in the race on raw numbers - 18 synthetic starts for three wins and three seconds, including a nose second in this exact grade here in June. Barrier 2 gives a cheap run just behind the speed, which is the safest map profile at this circuit. The drop from Bench. 65 back to Restricted 60 is meaningful. The reservation is the sharp distance drop from 2200m staying trips back to a mile, plus a jockey booking without a win here.
The most obvious improver in the race. The second-up profile (4:0-2-0) is positive. Against him: only two career wins, a wide gate at 11 and no natural pace to take up a forward spot, meaning he needs the race to unfold with cover.
He now gets the inside gate, 54kg with the claim and a genuine grade drop.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 7 | La Voisin | 5 | Ashlee Strawbridge | D M Walsh | 54.5kg | $6.50 |
| 2nd | 5 | Correction | 3 | T R Moseley | Brian Court & Jesse O'flaherty | 58kg | $9.90 |
| 3rd | 1 | Rollins | 7 | Y Atchamah | L M Robinson | 60kg | $5.70 |
| 4th | 11 | Da Vinci Girl | 10 | Jack Taplin | M & M Pitman | 52kg | $12.40 |
| 5th | 10 | Cutout | 6 | Brandon May | J & K Parsons | 55.5kg | $29.50 |
| 6th | 9 | Frosbie | 1 | Ohara Najib | T J Yesberg | 54kg | $4.70 |
| 7th | 3 | Lanikai | 11 | T C Moodley | J Land | 58.5kg | $3.40 |
| 8th | 12 | Ruby Sunrise | 9 | B E Grylls | S E Dring | 54kg | $39.70 |
| 9th | 2 | Sincere | 2 | Sima Mxothwa | Andrew Carston | 56.5kg | $10.30 |
| 10th | 4 | Bernardo | 8 | K Mudhoo | Andrew Carston | 58kg | $46.30 |
| Scr | 6 | Honor Mission | 4 | K Bakker | L M Robinson | 55.5kg | |
| Scr | 8 | Miraqua | 4 | D B Frye | 57.5kg |
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