Punt like a Pro, without the know!
New South Wales · Sunday 30 August 2026
Our top pick won 2 of 7 races at Mudgee. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
top pick wonanother tip wonno tip won
The most reliable form horse in a weak maiden. His 1400m record of 5 starts for 2 seconds is the best distance profile in the race and he has already run this trip at Mudgee. A 3.5kg weight drop to 55.5kg helps. The negatives — barrier 9 and a get-back pattern — are real at a track that punishes wide draws, but the class and fitness edge is clear enough to overcome an ordinary field.
Blinkers return, the gear change that lines up with her best recent effort at Tamworth. Working against her: barrier 10 at a track that has shut out wide draws, a soft-ground record of 6 starts without a placing, and a last-start fade at Newcastle after sitting handy.
Barrier 3 suits a track that rewards low draws, and he maps to settle midfield with cover. Solid each-way claims rather than a confident winning play.
The value case is the barrier and the surface. Her last three runs came from barriers 9, 12 and 10 with stewards noting wide trips and being taken back; from gate 2 at a track where inside draws dominate she gets her first fair run in weeks.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 10 | Tamieka Warrior | 9 | Donovan Dillon | Liam Ruddy | 55.5kg | $3.40 |
| 2nd | 6 | Forwarding | 8 | Ms M Weir | G D Lunn | 55.5kg | $3.00 |
| 3rd | 5 | Cobocco | 4 | Jacob Stiff | Connie Greig | 54kg | $7.00 |
| 4th | 3 | Promise You | 6 | O A Dalton | Nikki Pollock | 54kg | $7.50 |
| 5th | 4 | Chrislyn | 1 | D I Montes De Oca | G D Lunn | 56kg | $9.50 |
| 6th | 9 | Summer Sonata | 3 | A Layt | Troy Mc Carney | 55.5kg | $26.00 |
| 7th | 8 | Rock'n On Uptown | 2 | Clayton Gallagher | Carlos Antonio | 55.5kg | $8.00 |
| 8th | 7 | Pallene | 5 | A Farragher | Ms G Williams | 55.5kg | $51.00 |
| 9th | 1 | The Matrix | 7 | Gabrielle Johnston | T S Howlett | 57kg | $41.00 |
| Scr | 2 | Thirty Degrees | 3 | Cassandra Stummer | 56.5kg |
The one runner in the field with proven form at this trip on rain-affected ground: he won over 2000m on Heavy 8 at Bathurst two runs back, and his wet record reads 7 heavy starts for 2 wins, 1 second and 1 third. Trainer and jockey have kept him ticking on 13 days. The class rise from BM58 and a back-of-the-field map into a likely slow tempo are the risks, but he has repeatedly closed off from last-third positions on wet tracks, and 56kg is a real help.
Held his form at the exact class last start, finishing third at Scone after settling eighth, and the wet-track numbers stack up with 2 wins from 6 soft starts. Bullock is the best-credentialled local rider in the race and a 22% partner for the stable, with blinkers on again and bar plates added for the ground. The 2000m and the Mudgee record are genuine queries, but he is drawn to get a fair run and is well placed if the tempo holds up.
Barrier 3 is a genuine plus at Mudgee where low draws dominate. Against him: one win from 19 starts, no soft-track win from 11 attempts, and a jump from 52kg last start to 58.5kg today. Reliable to run into the finish, harder to trust to actually win.
The map is the case. His two starts at this trip both produced seconds, including a 2000m Soft 5 second at Kembla Grange where he was carried wide twice. Stiff is riding at 35% strike from his last 20.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 7 | Green Pineapple | 5 | Clayton Gallagher | Ms G Williams | 56kg | $3.70 |
| 2nd | 5 | Vondel | 4 | Brodie Loy | Brad Widdup | 57.5kg | $2.35 |
| 3rd | 3 | My Greek God | 2 | A Farragher | Matthew Smith | 58.5kg | $3.50 |
| 4th | 6 | King Cornelius | 1 | Donovan Dillon | Ms M Harrison | 56.5kg | $21.00 |
| 5th | 4 | Wolf Club | 3 | Ms M Weir | M D Griffith | 58.5kg | $8.00 |
| Scr | 1 | Jessandi | 3 | Ms S Jeffries | 60kg | ||
| Scr | 2 | Just Shane | 7 | T & P Vigouroux | 59kg | ||
| Scr | 8 | Casterly Rock | 1 | Todd Smith | 55kg |
The genuine class runner here. Lava Flow ran third on a Soft 6 at Hawkesbury under a big 58.5kg just ten days ago behind city maidens, and won two Rosehill trials on soft ground beforehand. He is the only runner in the field with a soft-track placing to his name. Big class edge dropping to a country maiden.
The most professional closer in the race. She now gets the ideal barrier one at a track where low draws dominate, is fitter second up, and drops from Warwick Farm and Group 3 company into a country maiden. The unknown is wet ground - untried on soft and a poor heavy trial - which is why she is not the top pick.
A talented but awkwardly placed runner. The natural second-run improvement is real and the class relief is genuine. The concerns are structural rather than ability based - gate 10 sits in Mudgee's poorest barrier band, he maps to settle last, and a moderate tempo gives closers little to work into.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 12 | Strollin' By | 7 | Ms R Freeman | G Portelli | 55kg | $2.15 |
| 2nd | 8 | Lava Flow | 6 | Brodie Loy | Bjorn Baker | 57.5kg | $2.40 |
| 3rd | 4 | Miss Maverick | 9 | Donovan Dillon | Connie Greig | 57kg | $15.00 |
| 4th | 10 | Cool Art | 1 | A Farragher | Annabel & Rob Archibald | 55kg | $11.00 |
| 5th | 13 | La Chaparron | 4 | Deon Le Roux | Ms A Smith | 55kg | $41.00 |
| 6th | 14 | Carisbrooke Queen | 2 | Izzy Neale | Derek Piper | 57kg | $51.00 |
| 7th | 11 | I'll Be Back | 3 | Clayton Gallagher | Ms A Smith | 55kg | $11.00 |
| 8th | 5 | Souline | 8 | J Pracey-Holmes | Paul Theobald | 57kg | $61.00 |
| 9th | 1 | Cubis Gold | 5 | Jasmine Urquhart-Warren | T S Howlett | 56kg | $101.00 |
| Scr | 2 | Finance Work | 7 | Peter Reynolds | 59kg | ||
| Scr | 3 | Lucky Monkey | 1 | Ms K Outtrim | 57kg | ||
| Scr | 6 | Binnaway Bullet | 3 | Ms M Weir | Dar Lunn | 56.5kg | |
| Scr | 7 | Bound For Pattaya | 9 | C Karakatsanis | 56.5kg | ||
| Scr | 9 | My Name Is Jeff | 7 | Ms M Harrison | 56.5kg |
She meets today's rivals on far better terms at 55kg, draws to get cover in barrier 3 and should be produced late on a track drying from Heavy 8 to Soft 7.
His sole Mudgee visit produced a win. The last-start Dubbo Heavy 9 fifth reads better than it looks given he was taken back from a wide gate. The barrier 9 draw is the clear negative at a track where wide gates struggle badly, which is enough to keep him just behind the top pick.
A tough veteran who knows this circuit better than anything in the race - seven starts at Mudgee over 1400m for a win and three placings. He maps to sit third on a track that rewards forward runners and drops slightly in grade.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Tainui | 4 | A Layt | G A O'Brien | 57kg | $11.00 |
| 2nd | 9 | Flamboyant Lad | 5 | O A Dalton | Liam Ruddy | 53.5kg | $2.80 |
| 3rd | 1 | Lockdown Gamble | 6 | Jasmine Urquhart-Warren | David J Smith | 59kg | $7.50 |
| 4th | 8 | Feirme Prince | 7 | J Pracey-Holmes | Toby Pracey | 55kg | $31.00 |
| 5th | 6 | Nomorenightshift | 9 | Ms M Weir | M D Griffith | 55kg | $3.40 |
| 6th | 5 | Deion | 8 | Donovan Dillon | Brett Robb | 56kg | $18.00 |
| 7th | 4 | Fetes Des Meres | 3 | Jacob Stiff | G D Lunn | 55kg | $7.50 |
| 8th | 2 | Craving Magic | 1 | Brodie Loy | Rob Potter | 59.5kg | $9.00 |
| 9th | 7 | Lady Tino | 2 | D I Montes De Oca | G D Lunn | 56kg | $101.00 |
Miss Karis is the field's proven wet-tracker — 19 combined soft and heavy starts with a win on each surface and repeated placings — and her Narromine fifth was full of merit given she settled last from barrier 11 and raced keen and wide. Barrier 4 and A Bullock's 20% Mudgee strike are genuine positives.
Best of the on-pace brigade on a track leaning that way. She also ran second over 1400m on Soft 5 in this grade. The concern is the tame Goulburn effort last start and a rider out of touch, so she rates as a place proposition rather than a win risk.
The value angle rests on the surface. Street Swagger has won 5 of his 9 heavy-track starts and saluted three weeks ago over 1420m at Dubbo on Heavy 9 with today's rider aboard, and Mudgee is drying from Heavy 8 rather than a settled Soft. Blanch is in strong form and holds a 33% record for this stable.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5 | Showmara | 9 | Jacob Stiff | Alexandre Lemarie | 58kg | $7.00 |
| 2nd | 6 | Sunday | 5 | J Pracey-Holmes | Simone Thompson | 59kg | $5.50 |
| 3rd | 9 | Miss Karis | 4 | Donovan Dillon | Brett Robb | 57kg | $7.00 |
| 4th | 8 | Backhander | 2 | A Farragher | Annabel & Rob Archibald | 57.5kg | $12.00 |
| 5th | 4 | Street Swagger | 3 | Liam Blanch | Ms J Galea | 60kg | $16.00 |
| 6th | 3 | Akauwheo | 8 | A Layt | G A O'Brien | 60.5kg | $21.00 |
| 7th | 11 | Brogans Creek | 7 | Ms M Weir | Toby Pracey | 55kg | $26.00 |
| 8th | 10 | Commando Jack | 10 | Amy Mc Lucas | David J Smith | 56kg | $3.20 |
| 9th | 7 | Wandaye | 6 | Clayton Gallagher | Ms G Williams | 58.5kg | $8.00 |
| 10th | 2 | Maid In Dubai | 1 | Deon Le Roux | Brett Robb | 60kg | $9.50 |
| Scr | 1 | Damascus Gate | 6 | Carlos Antonio | 63.5kg |
That is a clear class edge over these. She has won on Soft going and trialled successfully on Heavy 8, so the drying Soft 7 holds no fear. Barrier 3 places her in the sweet spot at Mudgee where low draws dominate. The 60kg is the query, but the ability gap justifies favouritism.
The lone confirmed leader in a field short on early speed, and at 1200m on a drying Soft 7 that tactical control matters. Bullock is the key - 35% for the stable and 20% at this track - and he knows the horse. He ran second here over 1400m in Class 1 and has six soft-track runs producing two seconds and a third. Gate nine forces some work early, and the one-from-fifteen record is the obvious brake, but the map and the booking make him the main threat.
Baker sending her to Mudgee with Loy reads as intent. Against that, she is first up after a long absence carrying 59.5kg, rising in grade, and her Randwick trial was poor. The wet-track and track-specific credentials are genuine, but the fitness and weight questions cap the confidence.
She drops back to Class 1 with 55kg, draws advantageously in seven, and maps to settle handy on a track favouring forward runners. Hunt has won on her.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Manoora | 2 | Izzy Neale | Brett Robb | 60kg | $2.70 |
| 2nd | 3 | Dunquin | 9 | A Farragher | Liam Ruddy | 59kg | $7.50 |
| 3rd | 4 | Jagerschnitzel | 8 | J Pracey-Holmes | Cameron Crockett | 57.5kg | $8.50 |
| 4th | 6 | Archaic Force | 5 | Ms M Weir | T S Howlett | 56kg | $17.00 |
| 5th | 7 | Celestial Grace | 10 | Ms R Freeman | G Portelli | 56kg | $9.00 |
| 6th | 9 | Spring Prospect | 6 | Zoe Hunt | David J Smith | 55kg | $19.00 |
| 7th | 8 | Manaftermidnight | 1 | Donovan Dillon | Holly Williams | 56kg | $31.00 |
| 8th | 10 | Wootton Please | 4 | K Dunbar | Ms K McCarroll | 55kg | $41.00 |
| 9th | 5 | Cante Libre | 3 | Clayton Gallagher | R J Nutman | 57kg | $71.00 |
| 10th | 2 | Curie | 7 | Brodie Loy | Bjorn Baker | 59.5kg | $3.20 |
| Scr | 11 | Krystina Kerima | 12 | L K Roberts | 55kg | ||
| Scr | 12 | Injair | 1 | Ms S Bigg | 55kg |
The most credible winner on form. Soft ground is proven (2 wins from 10 starts). Barrier 5 gives Pracey-Holmes options to improve her position early rather than being stranded last, which is the key tactical requirement.
The soundest form line into the race. He is the only Mudgee winner in the field and drops in grade today with a lightly raced profile — 9 starts, 2 wins, 2 thirds. Barrier 10 is a genuine concern at a track where wide draws struggle badly, which is why he sits second rather than first.
The 55.0kg is a real edge. Barrier 11 and a moderate tempo are the offsetting negatives, capping her at third.
His 45% career place rate is the best here, and barrier 2 is the standout draw at a track where inside gates dominate sprints.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 12 | News Bound | 9 | Zoe Hunt | Natalie Pearce | 55.5kg | $71.00 |
| 2nd | 13 | Golden Vader | 8 | A Farragher | Liam Ruddy | 55kg | $7.00 |
| 3rd | 7 | Zoucratic | 6 | Ms M Weir | T S Howlett | 59.5kg | $6.00 |
| 4th | 10 | Yorkel | 2 | Clayton Gallagher | M E Jones | 56.5kg | $13.00 |
| 5th | 9 | Western Warrior | 7 | K Dunbar | Natalie Pearce | 58.5kg | $3.50 |
| 6th | 8 | Ivy Diva | 3 | J Pracey-Holmes | Tim McIntosh | 59kg | $5.00 |
| 7th | 5 | Street Parade | 5 | Donovan Dillon | Ms M Harrison | 60kg | $16.00 |
| 8th | 1 | Jolly Good Fellow | 4 | Jacob Stiff | D R Mirfin | 59kg | $9.50 |
| 9th | 6 | Reflecting Fame | 1 | Brodie Loy | Cameron Crockett | 59.5kg | $6.00 |
| Scr | 2 | Beaumista | 12 | Simon Casey | 60kg | ||
| Scr | 3 | Glowing Rapids | 10 | Ms M Harrison | 60kg | ||
| Scr | 4 | Shaggy Rogers | 2 | Kieren Hazelton | 60kg | ||
| Scr | 11 | Gelsey | 4 | Tim McIntosh | 56kg | ||
| Scr | 14 | Mean Girls | 1 | Kieren Hazelton | 55kg |
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