Strathalbyn tips and results

Our price $8.00 · SP $5.50 · Connor Murtagh

A genuine roughie with a map advantage. He is the likely leader from barrier 3 at a circuit where on-pace runners are winning at nearly 18% recently and backmarkers are winless. His form reads poorly, but both defeats came after over-racing, and the tongue tie, compression hood and removal of the cross-over nose band are aimed squarely at that problem.

Our price $5.00 · SP $11.00 · Connor Murtagh

His last-start third on Heavy 8 at Murray Bridge came with a clear excuse - held up near the 400m - and he was closing on the winner. Drawn in barrier 8, which is Strathalbyn's most productive band, and mapped to be on the speed at a track where 1-3 at the 400m wins over 18% while backmarkers win under 2%.

Our price $4.80 · SP $16.00 · Todd Pannell

Maps ideally. Soft record of 3:1-0-1 includes his July maiden win on Soft 5 with Pannell, who returns. The Heavy 8 run last start is excusable. The 60.5kg topweight is the clear negative.

Our price $3.80 · SP $3.90 · Harry Grace

The map is the case. His single Strathalbyn 1200m start produced a win, leading at the 400m. Harry Grace returns having been aboard that day.

Our price $3.20 · SP $5.50 · Ben Price

Clear overlay.

Our price $4.50 · SP $3.90 · Connor Murtagh

The most credentialed runner at the venue. Prodigal Lad has won over this course and distance in this exact grade and from this exact barrier, and returns off a genuine effort at Murray Bridge where he was three deep and last on the corner before finishing a length off the winner on Heavy 8. The 60kg on a Soft 7 is the sticking point and the reason he sits behind Prince Kuro rather than in front, but the profile is a legitimate winning one.

Our price $4.80 · SP $6.00 · J Holder

Place value only.

Our price $5.00 · SP $8.50 · Todd Pannell

Aramoso has placed three times in five attempts over 1200m at Strathalbyn and was beaten only a length here over this trip on Soft 7 in stronger Restricted 58 company in July. He drops back from Class 2, gets a much better gate at barrier 5 which lets him sit closer than his usual last-third position, and picks up Pannell.

Our price $5.50 · SP $4.80 · Jordyn Weatherley

The 1350m failure last start is easily forgiven from gate 13 wide throughout. She returns to a suitable trip, drops slightly in grade, draws in the favoured mid-gate band and backs up quickly with a light weight. The riding booking is the clear reservation and the reason she rates below the top pick rather than alongside it.

Our price $8.00 · SP $16.00 · Brooke King

The one last-start winner in the race and the only runner with two career wins at today's trip. She was strong late on Heavy 8 at Murray Bridge, sweeping from seventh at the 800m to win, and Brooke King stays aboard. The 5kg weight rise off that win is the obvious brake, and her back-of-the-field pattern is against a track profile that penalises deep closers.

Our price $11.00 · SP $21.00 · Wesley Cave

The overlay of the race. Her only career win came on soft going and she now gets a slight grade drop, an inside gate and a quick back-up.

Our price $3.80 · SP $8.50 · Tala Hutchinson

Most consistent mile performer in the race. Nine starts at 1600m have produced a win and three placings. Light weight, familiar rider and a soft-track record of three placings from twelve make her the most likely winner despite the modest win strike rate.

Our price $5.00 · SP $6.00 · S H Sit

He has won at Strathalbyn over 1600m.

Our price $6.50 · SP $10.00 · Ashlee Stone

He has won at Strathalbyn over 1600m before and holds three soft-track wins from 23 attempts. The apprentice claim drops him to a workable 54.5kg.

Our price $3.00 · SP $2.20 · Ben Price

Chur Nibble beat Koratora here 11 days ago over the identical 1350m on an identical Soft 7, doing it tough three-wide-handy and finishing strongest of all. The 62.5kg is the one genuine query, but the horse is fit, in-form and stays in the same grade with the winning rider retained.

Our price $4.50 · SP $9.00 · J Holder

The best-value runner among the genuine winning chances. It now drops sharply in grade to the exact class in which it won at Strathalbyn in March. Barrier 2 and a forward, on-pace pattern match the track's dominant winning profile perfectly. A moderate tempo lets Holder park it just off the speed.

Our price $6.00 · SP $4.60 · Caitlyn Munro

Barrier 1 and proven soft-track ability (2 wins from 9) keep it right in the finish on a circuit that punishes backmarkers. The reservations are the riding booking, currently in a lengthy drought, and a career profile littered with poor efforts between the good ones. Solid place claims rather than a confident winner.

Our price $8.00 · SP $8.00 · Connor Murtagh

The overlay of the race. Victory Queen has won two of its past five and placed at this exact grade last start, all achieved on genuinely rain-affected surfaces, and today's Soft 7 following 33mm across the week suits. Murtagh, who partnered its Naracoorte win, returns. That is more than adequate compensation for a fit, in-form wet-tracker.