Northam tips and results

Our price $4.50 · SP $4.00 · Zephen Johnston-Porter

The 500m jump beyond his previous maximum and a tendency to settle last-third are the reservations, particularly with the Northam bias punishing backmarkers.

Our price $6.00 · SP $21.00 · Brandon Louis

The value angle is the map. She rates the quickest away in the field, draws barrier 4 and with only two genuine leaders in a slowly run 2200m she should get a soft run in the first two - precisely the shape Northam Maidens reward. Her Northam run on Heavy 9 last start was better than the bare 5th suggests, holding a forward berth throughout under 56kg.

Our price $4.50 · SP $3.60 · C Johnston-Porter

Blinkers now go on and she arrives off a Lark Hill trial win on Soft 5 ten days ago, so fitness and readiness are covered. Barrier 8 and a back-half settling position are the obstacles on a track whose broader profile favours handy runners, but the raw ability signal is the strongest in the field outside Supersmash.

Our price $8.00 · SP $26.00 · Chris Parnham

Our price $2.30 · SP $1.85 · Chris Parnham

The class drop is decisive. Barrier 5, 53.5kg and Chris Parnham complete a package that fits Northam's on-pace, low-mid barrier sprint profile.

Our price $9.00 · SP $13.00 · Jefferson Tsang

He gets barrier 4, 55kg with the claim, and a rider going at 15% at Northam. Worth an each-way interest.

Our price $3.20 · SP $3.40 · Jefferson Tsang

The obvious risk is his 3-from-47 strike rate, but on raw ability and current fitness he is clearly the best-credentialled runner.

Our price $8.00 · SP $14.00 · Brandon Louis

She has won first up before (3 starts first up for 1 win, 1 second) and had a Belmont trial on 3 August. The concerns are 59.0kg, one soft-track start without a placing, and a cold jockey.

Our price $4.20 · SP $7.00 · T Turner

He maps to settle around fourth, exactly the profile Northam's on-pace, low-barrier bias rewards, and his soft-track record reads 2 starts for 1 win.

Our price $3.60 · SP $3.60 · Taj Dyson

The reservations are real though: one win from ten starts, barrier 9 against a track showing 0 winners from 22 middle-barrier runners, a jockey at 5% recent strike, and an untried 1300m.

Our price $12.00 · SP $51.00 · C Johnston-Porter

His three soft-track starts have produced a win, a second and a third. Barrier 4 and an on-pace map fit Northam's bias precisely.

Our price $3.20 · SP $3.30 · Taj Dyson

The most credentialled runner in a weak maiden. His soft record of 2 starts for a second and a third confirms wet-ground ability. Barrier 3 on a track biased to low draws and on-pace runners is a significant plus, and the first-time bubble cheeker addresses the laying-in that has cost him. He needs to find a length but the map is right.

Our price $8.00 · SP $8.00 · Natika Riordan

The forecast fast tempo from three genuine leaders is tailor-made for her finishing pattern, and 54kg helps in the ground. Against her is the outside gate, a poor Northam record, and 19 starts without a win. She will get every chance if the leaders overdo it, but needs the race run to suit and clear galloping room from wide, so she rates a place proposition rather than a win risk.

Our price $10.00 · SP $61.00 · Jefferson Tsang

The step to 1600m is the obvious progression, and at 50.5kg she has a genuine weight advantage in ground that will be testing late. Barrier 5 sits in the inside band Northam currently favours and Tsang is riding well at the track.

Our price $5.00 · SP $3.90 · Natika Riordan

The 1600m record of 5 starts for no wins or placings is a real flaw, the last start capitulation from the front half was ugly, and the jockey is winless in her last 20 rides.