Lismore tips and results

Our price $5.50 · SP $2.40 · B Looker

His debut reads worse than it was: 1025m on a Soft 7 under 59kg was never going to suit, and the stewards noting he was not fully tested supports that. He won his Casino trial on a Good 4 and the sharp rise to 1310m is the change of conditions this Ole Kirk gelding needs. Barrier 4 gives Looker the option to be handy, which is where Lismore races are won.

Our price $3.00 · SP $2.90 · Emily Lang

The map is everything at Lismore over 1110m, where leaders win at 22% and backmarkers have failed to win from 20 attempts. She has been placed twice on Good ground and is beaten small margins in stronger Queensland maidens. Blinkers off with winkers applied should settle her keenness. Barrier 8 is the query, not the ability.

Our price $4.80 · SP $4.80 · Jett Newman

The problem is the map: from barrier 11 with a backmarker profile, she lands in the one position that has produced no winners in the recorded Lismore sample, and her trials have been unremarkable.

Our price $8.50 · SP $26.00 · R Spokes

She now gets winkers, a natural second-start fitness lift and, most importantly, a map that has her in the first three at a track where on-pace runners dominate.

Our price $6.50 · SP $6.00 · D L Turner

Genuine debut merit at a track that rewards exactly his profile. Barrier 1 with an on-pace style is the strongest positional draw in the race given inside gates and forward positions dominate Lismore sprints, and he is the lightest weighted runner at 56.5kg.

Our price $2.60 · SP $1.95 · Amelia Heinrich

Lismore sprints reward exactly his profile — barrier 1, natural leader, on-pace winners at 20%+ while backmarkers have won none of 20. He has been getting to the front and only weakening late under metro pressure; here he should get an easier lead. Weight and the light jockey booking are the risks, but the map and class relief outweigh them.

Our price $5.50 · SP $11.00 · G Spokes

Poseidon's Son returns first up with a strong fresh profile — five first-up starts for two wins and a placing — and a flawless single visit to Lismore, where he led throughout to win. Against him: 60.5kg fresh, a scratchy Beaudesert trial, and the likelihood of a speed duel with Tiger Tie from the inside. Class and track affinity make him a solid each-way proposition rather than a confident win play.

Our price $3.20 · SP $3.20 · Jai Williams

Constellation is the strongest blend of map, track form and class in this race. Good-track record of 5:2-0-2 fits the surface. Jockey stats are the only genuine concern; the map and class evidence outweigh it.

Our price $4.60 · SP $4.00 · Archie Mc Colm

The map and the weight scale are the case here. The reservation is his habit of missing the start, which would strand him in the backmarker bracket that has won nothing at recent Lismore meetings.

Our price $8.00 · SP $9.00 · Jasper Franklin

This is a map-driven selection. Lismore's bias toward leaders is pronounced and Golden Copper is the only established front-runner in the field, racing at her own grade off a solid 5th at Coffs Harbour where she was beaten under three lengths. The barrier 9 draw is the obstacle, forcing her to expend early energy to cross, and she has a history of stopping when pressured in front.

Our price $11.00 · SP $26.00 · J L Taylor

He has run a placing or better in all four starts at this exact course and distance, including a win, draws barrier 2, and gets in on 55.5kg after carrying 59kg when running second at Grafton last start. His projected settling position of 3rd is precisely the profile Lismore rewards. The obvious caveat is an 8% career win rate and no victories on Good going, which makes each-way rather than win the correct play.