Bordertown tips and results

Our price $2.80 · SP $5.00 · Jordyn Weatherley

Karma Queen is the form horse and maps perfectly. As the predicted leader with 54.5kg on a Bordertown soft track where on-pace runners dominate, she has every tactical advantage.

Our price $4.50 · SP $3.20 · Harry Grace

The step to 1550m, light weight and inside draw all help, but the map is a serious concern: he settles near the rear on a Bordertown soft track where backmarkers rarely win.

Our price $10.00 · SP $15.00 · Todd Pannell

He has already placed at this track and distance, maps to sit second on a Bordertown soft track that strongly favours on-pace runners, and his Port Augusta form at 1500-1600m is consistent with a 2nd and multiple 4ths. Todd Pannell is a meaningful booking. The negatives are real: 0 from 7 on soft and 28 starts without a win.

Our price $4.50 · SP $3.60 · Will Price

Our price $6.00 · SP $4.20 · Brooke King

Her soft-track placings tick the wet-form box. The problem is entirely tactical: she settles last in a race with a moderate tempo on a track that strongly punishes backmarkers. If the leaders compress she can run over them, but she needs luck, so place exposure only.

Our price $8.00 · SP $21.00 · Jordyn Weatherley

Don't Say Do is the overlay. With 54.5kg, a mid draw and the ability to go forward if the pace is slack, she maps well for the on-pace bias. The lack of a win and the new-stable variable justify each-way rather than win-only exposure.

Our price $3.50 · SP $3.00 · D Caboche

On The Map has the most reliable recent profile in a very weak Restricted 54 field, running competitive margins in Restricted 56 grade on heavy and soft ground and closing best of all at Warracknabeal. The pace runners here are poor quality, which softens the on-pace bias. Caboche's Bordertown strike rate and the inside draw help.

Our price $5.00 · SP $4.40 · A Stead

Hallstatt is the main threat.

Our price $4.50 · SP $7.00 · Jemma Gutte

He is a genuine wet-tracker with two soft wins and a heavy win, has won at this track and over 1508m in Rst56 grade, and drops to Rst54. Second-up he has won before and the 1200m return run on Soft 7 was a sound blowout.

Our price $3.80 · SP $2.80 · Harry Grace

However she has won once in 23 starts, never on soft, and has been getting back in her runs, which is the losing pattern at Bordertown on wet ground.

Our price $7.00 · SP $8.00 · Ms S Metcalfe

Unwind has the most reliable recent form at Rst54-56 level with placings at Bordertown and over 1600m on soft ground, and Kayla Crowther is riding well. The concern is purely positional: she settles near last and is often slow away, and backmarkers win under 5% of Soft races here. With only two genuine leaders the tempo may be moderate, limiting her late run. Solid place chance rather than a confident win selection.

Our price $12.00 · SP $31.00 · D Caboche

Hasta La Amnesty is a genuine 2000m horse with 3 wins and a Bordertown BM58 third from five attempts at the trip, and Caboche is the leading local rider in this field. His last-start flop on a Heavy 9 was poor but the June Bordertown run over this exact course and distance was competitive.

Our price $5.50 · SP $7.00 · Rochelle Milnes

Full Commitment returns to the grade she dominated mid-prep, winning BM56 races at Echuca (Heavy 10) and Strathalbyn (Soft 7) before being outclassed in BM66 company. Her on-pace racing style is exactly what the Bordertown Soft-track profile rewards, and the projected slow tempo behind lone leader Mrs Harris means she should be within striking distance turning in.

Our price $6.50 · SP $6.50 · Connor Murtagh

Victory Queen maps as well as anything in the race from barrier 1 with an on-pace pattern, and she has already won over this track and distance. The reservation is that every one of her wins came on Heavy 8 ground and she has yet to win in three attempts on soft going, with her last start at Strathalbyn showing she fades when the track is not genuinely heavy.

Our price $8.00 · SP $21.00 · Stephanie Wright

Mrs Harris is the pure map play. With one genuine leader and a slow tempo forecast on a track where front-runners win a quarter of soft-ground races, she gets to dictate with only 56kg on her back from barrier 2. Her last-start collapse on a Heavy 9 is the obvious blemish, but Soft 6 is a very different surface and her Victorian BM62 form is clearly better than this grade.

Our price $3.60 · SP $7.00 · Ms K Walters

Melissa Kate is the form horse of the race. Her last six runs (2-2-3-4-4-1) have all been on rain-affected tracks at this grade or higher, and her Restricted 54 margins are tight. She drops back from a strong BM62 second at Warrnambool, draws barrier 1 and maps to settle handy, which is exactly the profile that wins Bordertown sprints in the Soft.

Our price $4.80 · SP $4.00 · Connor Murtagh

Rob The Bank has the map in his favour with the best early speed in the race and a track that rewards on-pace runners in the Soft. His runs at Restricted 56 level have been consistent without winning, and he has won first-up before. The concerns are 59kg on a wet track he has never won on and a poor last-start effort in the heavy.

Our price $6.00 · SP $4.00 · A C Goindasamy

He is the horse most likely to lead, and the positional data at Bordertown in the Soft heavily favours on-pace runners. His last-start third at a higher grade on Soft 7 was solid and he ran second at Restricted 58 when leading in June. Each-way covers the high variance.

Our price $5.00 · SP $6.00 · Brooke King

He is not the top pick because the map works against him: a get-back sprinter at a track where backmarkers rarely win in the wet, with only two genuine leaders to soften the pace, plus a 3kg rise and a rider with a poor Bordertown record.

Our price $7.00 · SP $6.50 · Tala Hutchinson

Exonumia is the reliable place profile in a race the BM58-and-lower rule flags as high-volatility. He holds a forward position, handles soft going and has been in the first three at 19 of 42 starts, but he is a very hard horse to actually get over the line - no wins from 14 attempts at 1200m and a 7% career strike rate. The drop back in trip and better ground than last start should have him in the finish again. Place only.

Our price $10.00 · SP $12.00 · Caitlyn Munro

A map-driven roughie rather than a form horse. Immortal Spirit's raw form is poor but he is one of only two genuine leaders in a race where Bordertown Soft data strongly favours the front, he has already led all the way to win here in this grade on heavy ground, and he gets in with 54kg. If Affaire Vue fails to handle the going again he could find himself alone in front.

Our price $7.00 · SP $4.80 · Ms S Metcalfe

Costless drops from Morphettville Parks BM64 to a country BM64 and draws the fence, which is critical at Bordertown where low draws lead and on-pace settlers win a quarter of Soft races.

Our price $8.00 · SP $11.00 · Tayla Cameron

Sunday Fun Day is the each-way value. The last-start failure was with 59.5kg from barrier 10; today he sheds 8kg to 51.5kg, draws barrier 5 and maps to sit on the speed where Bordertown winners come from.