Kilmore tips and results

Our price $4.00 · SP $4.20 · Teodore Nugent

The Maher stable steps him to the mile which should suit on breeding, and his ability to race forward is critical given Kilmore's on-pace bias at 1600m.

Our price $6.00 · SP $3.60 · A Mc Cabe

However the map is a serious problem: he has been slow away in both starts and is predicted to settle last, on a track where backmarkers in maidens rarely win.

Our price $9.00 · SP $18.00 · J Duffy

My Alpha Sonic offers value as the runner best positioned to exploit Kilmore's pronounced on-pace bias at 1600m, mapping to settle in the first three where the favoured trio all get back. He has placed on Heavy 10 and run well on Soft 7, and his last-start 6th was compromised by a slow start. The tongue tie and Duffy booking hint at stable intent.

Our price $3.50 · SP $2.40 · Teodore Nugent

With zero visible form, a rider out of form and no indication he will be on the speed, the risk that he does not exploit the on-pace bias is real. Place only.

Our price $9.00 · SP $15.00 · C J Parish

Miss Navratilova is the overlay.

Our price $5.00 · SP $2.90 · M Aitken

He should sit fourth on the fence behind the leaders, which is the winning position at Kilmore.

Our price $7.00 · SP $10.00 · Teodore Nugent

Ocean Surge is the best-mapped runner in the race as the likely leader, which is a decisive edge at Kilmore where backmarkers win 0-3% of Maidens. The step up to 1450m at his second start for a strong stable is a positive trajectory signal.

Our price $5.50 · SP $3.20 · Neil Farley

Slate Ripper has the most solid grade form with three placings in Restricted 56 company including a narrow third at Kilmore, and he handles Soft ground. The concern is race pattern - he is frequently slow away and settles sixth or worse, which is where Kilmore winners rarely come from, and his heavy-track runs this winter were beaten 5-6 lengths.

Our price $4.50 · SP $4.20 · Teodore Nugent

Our price $5.50 · SP $3.20 · C J Parish

Frozen Tide shares favouritism and has the more forgiving map of the two, having sat third last start with barrier 3 to do it again. That puts him in the bias-favoured zone.

Our price $6.00 · SP $6.50 · Neil Farley

Avonview is the reliable each-way angle. He maps forward from barrier 2 on a track where he has won and placed at this grade on wet ground, and he has run top-3 in nine of his last ten.

Our price $3.80 · SP $4.00 · Chelsea Thompson

Dusty's Deel is the form horse for this map. He is the field's dominant leader from barrier 2 on a Kilmore Soft 5 where on-pace runners dominate and backmarkers rarely win. With 55kg, a track-and-distance win to his name and two close thirds at this grade last two starts, he has every chance to dictate a moderate tempo and kick clear at the 320m straight.

Our price $7.00 · SP $13.00 · J Duffy

The veteran has quietly found his best form this preparation, winning this exact grade and distance on a wet track last month and then running on into 4th after a torrid trip at Casterton. His soft and heavy record is the most robust in the field and he sits in the on-pace group in the speed map. Duffy's re-engagement is a positive intent signal.

Our price $7.00 · SP $11.00 · Jack Martin

She is a genuine soft-track performer and her Wangaratta 3rd over 2000m is a strong piece of form, but the last-start failure with a 'failed to respond' comment, a 5-day back-up, a winless jockey and a get-back running style on a leader-biased Kilmore track are too many negatives. She belongs in the top three on ability, but only as a place proposition.

Our price $8.00 · SP $13.00 · C Newitt

Cuban Dawn is a legitimate roughie. His two recent failures came at unsuitable sprint trips, one with a documented respiratory issue, and he has had 40 days to recover. Back at 2000m, where his form reads 3rd and 2nd in comparable grade, and mapping to sit second behind the leader from barrier 5, he is positioned exactly where Kilmore winners come from.

Our price $4.50 · SP $6.50 · Sam Kennedy

In a weak Restricted 56 sprint the map is the key, and Balgowan fits the Kilmore blueprint best: early speed from a mid-inside draw, light weight, and a previous win at this track and trip. Her last-start third at Wodonga over 1100m on Soft 6 was better than the result after being held up at the 400m, and she ran second on Heavy 9 two starts prior.

Our price $5.00 · SP $4.40 · B Rawiller

Our price $7.00 · SP $4.60 · C J Parish

Wambeen is included purely on the strength of the map: he is the only genuine leader, draws barrier 1, and has already won at Kilmore leading throughout on soft ground. If he jumps and finds the front uncontested on a moderate tempo, the short 320m straight makes him hard to run down.

Our price $9.00 · SP $5.50 · Melea Castle

Alpinova is the value each-way runner. Kilmore historically punishes backmarkers, but the most recent soft-track sample here has run more open and she draws the rail to save ground.