Ballarat tips and results

Our price $6.00 · SP $3.90 · Luke Nolen

She has since won a jump out and draws ideally in gate five, able to settle just off what shapes as a hot early tempo. Strong stable-jockey combination and the one to beat.

Our price $6.50 · SP $8.50 · Luke Cartwright

Placed over this trip at Pakenham on good ground, settling second and fighting on to be beaten half a length. Draws nicely in seven and maps to sit third behind a hot tempo, which is the ideal spot over Ballarat's 1000m, though the stable's recent record tempers confidence.

Our price $5.50 · SP $4.80 · Luke Nolen

A filly who took on a Caulfield two-year-old handicap and was far from disgraced — the best single run in this field. Now with a leading stable and a smart rider, she drops sharply in grade and should be in the firing line from gate six. The concern is the hot early tempo with rivals sharing her speed; if she sits just off it she wins, if pressed she may be vulnerable late.

Our price $4.50 · SP $9.50 · Damian Lane

Twice placed at maiden level and his Seymour second, closing hard from last over 1300m on a good track, rates strongly. Drawn sweetly in six to settle third and gets a senior rider. The main query is the drop back to 1200m, a trip he has not tried, but his profile and map fit this race well.

Our price $5.50 · SP $17.00 · Thomas Stockdale

Knucklehead is the one runner proven over the staying trip, working home strongly for third over 2000m last start in a performance that stacked up to winning standard. Alexander and Stockdale are a high-percentage local combination, and the inside draw should see him parked just off a hot tempo. Still a maiden, but the step to this trip and the fast early pace look tailor-made.

Our price $6.00 · SP $6.50 · Daniel Stackhouse

Doublet brings the best recent closing effort in the race, storming home for second last start and finishing hard. He is rock-consistent without winning, which is the knock for a stable enduring a frustrating run. With three likely front-runners cutting at each other, his sit-and-sprint style is well suited, and he has already placed at this distance.

Our price $6.50 · SP $4.40 · Luke Currie

In a race that shapes for stronger finishers she looks short enough.

Our price $6.00 · SP $7.50 · Teodore Nugent

Ahab has been the model of consistency, finishing in the placings at each of his last three starts and running up to the mark when second in a stronger race last time. He settles on the pace, draws ideally in gate six and is proven over this trip, a profile that fits a moderate-tempo Ballarat staying test.

Our price $8.00 · SP $2.90 · Joe Bowditch

A lightly raced, progressive four-year-old who has won two of five, both times dictating from the front. He ran well on the speed when third in a stronger race last start and the staying trip at Ballarat suits on-pace runners. All his best form, however, is on rain-affected ground and he has never raced beyond 1800m, so place claims look stronger than his winning chance.

Our price $9.00 · SP $14.00 · Campbell Rawiller

An improving stayer whose last-start win over 2050m, carrying 61.5kg, was an emphatic display. His trainer is going at 40 per cent and the horse has already run a competitive race over this course and distance on a good surface.

Our price $15.00 · SP $21.00 · Olivia East

Our price $11.00 · SP $16.00 · Liana Wood

Won over 1000m at Echuca last start, settling midfield and finishing over the top of them. The stable is the hottest in this race, he's drawn well in six and he's a lightly raced four-year-old with upside at the trip.

Our price $9.00 · SP $7.50 · Holly Durnan

Proven at this level last prep with placings in stronger 66-grade sprints, and he gets the perfect set-up here: barrier four, early speed to hold a handy spot and a 3kg claim bringing him in light. Ballarat rewards on-pace runners and a lone leader means a moderate tempo.

Our price $6.00 · SP $5.00 · Harry Coffey

She settles handily, which suits a track that favours those on the speed, and she is consistent. The obvious query is the step back to 1200m, as her best form is all around 1400-1500m, and she returns off an autumn campaign. Still, on class alone she is a genuine top-three hope.

Our price $14.00 · SP $13.00 · Thomas Stockdale

Everything points to a horse who saves his best for a fresh run, as both career wins have come first-up. He has won in stronger company than this and his stable-and-jockey combination is going well. The negatives are the long break between races, the fact he has never won at 1200m and a get-back pattern that is not ideal here.

Our price $9.00 · SP $12.00 · Michael Dee

Craig is a get-back stayer with an excellent record on good ground and at 1600m. The query is the map: from barrier 13 he'll be near last in a race where Ballarat strongly favours on-pace runners. If the leaders overdo it, his late turn of foot makes him dangerous.

Our price $22.00 · SP $31.00 · Alana Kelly

He races well on good ground and has a stack of experience.

Our price $6.50 · SP $8.00 · Dakotah Keane

The class runner of the field. She was outclassed in a stronger city mares' race last time but won well two starts back and is far better placed against her own sex here. She handles a firm track and has the speed to take up a handy position, and this field lacks depth. Top weight and an untried 1500m are the queries, but she's the one to beat.

Our price $9.00 · SP $9.30 · Declan Bates

An improving, lightly raced filly who won at this trip before running a close second in a much stronger Flemington race over further — that reads well for a BM62. Her trainer is strong at Ballarat.

Our price $7.00 · SP $9.10 · Luke Nolen

A stakes-placed filly who has been pitched in the deep end at her last two starts and drops right back to her own grade here. Her staying breeding says the step to 1500m will suit and she has a senior jockey aboard. The query is her get-back style at a track that favours on-pace runners, plus the stable's quiet form, hence an each-way play.