Newcastle tips and results

Our price $6.50 · SP $7.00 · Andrew Calder

Don's Party has the second-best recent Class 1 form in the race with his Hawkesbury second, and his maiden win was well above average. The distance rise may help him find a rhythm.

Our price $12.00 · SP $31.00 · Lee Magorrian

Meritage is the overlay. She is the only runner besides Tacitly with a Class 1 win at a staying trip, and that Wyong win over 2125m came on a Good track. Her two runs this campaign were in stronger Midway races over distances too short, and she finished off well at Gosford.

Our price $7.50 · SP $26.00 · Christian Reith

The best recent form in the field. Second-up now and drawn to settle handy from gate three, with his yard and a strong trainer-jockey combination in form.

Our price $6.50 · SP $7.50 · Chad Schofield

Has mixed it with good company as a two-year-old — a close third in the Baillieu over 1400m and a midfield effort in the Champagne Stakes. Second-up and out to a suitable trip, he should improve. But he was well held first-up after a wide trip, and the map is against him: he settles back from a wide gate on a track that rewards on-pace runners.

Our price $26.00 · SP $51.00 · Shannen Llewellyn

Our price $3.00 · SP $1.75 · Tim Clark

Waterhouse and Bott have her fit and Tim Clark rides, and she maps to be handy from the outset.

Our price $3.80 · SP $3.70 · Zac Lloyd

Spartus is the only horse in the race winning at this class right now, and his last four runs have all been at or above a winning standard against similar opposition. The map is the key: Miss Trentino and Generous Harry will go hard early with others pressing, which should tow him into the race late. The Newcastle on-pace bias is a real caveat, but recent meetings have been kinder to closers and the pace scenario neutralises much of it.

Our price $6.00 · SP $6.00 · Tommy Berry

Miss Trentino gets the ideal Newcastle set-up: barrier 3, 57kg and the front. Her Canterbury run two back when leading was competitive at this class, and her last-start failure came after a poor start on a heavy track. The risk is that Generous Harry makes her work early in a very fast race, leaving her vulnerable to Spartus late. A place chance with upside if she can get a soft enough lead, but the unnamed jockey and declining form cap her at third.

Our price $10.00 · SP $17.00 · Liberty Smyth

Not Written Off is the overlay. She won her last two starts at Tamworth at BM74 and BM82, both against solid fields, and comes back to BM72 with a trial win under her belt. She draws inside and has the tactical speed to sit behind the leaders, which is exactly the profile Newcastle rewards over 900m.

Our price $5.50 · SP $6.00 · Regan Bayliss

Rates the one to beat on form. Her two recent seconds at Stakes level are the strongest recent form in the field, and she has already won and placed at Newcastle over 1400m. The predicted fast tempo plays into her hands as a strong closer and her stable is going well.

Our price $4.50 · SP $13.00 · Tommy Berry

However she led and was beaten last start, and with a second leader engaged the fast tempo could soften her. She remains a leading winning hope from the inside gate, but the closers may have her measure late.

Our price $8.00 · SP $18.00 · Sam Clipperton

She races handily and should get a good run from a middle gate.

Our price $11.00 · SP $20.00 · Jason Collett

The value runner. The wide gate is a genuine worry at Newcastle, but she settles handy and can finish over the top if she gets a clear run.

Our price $8.50 · SP $14.00 · Kerrin McEvoy

Ran a close third in the Wyong Cup and has been consistent without winning in stronger company. Waller and McEvoy is a potent combination and barrier two is a plus. The knock is his get-back style on a day that should favour on-pace runners, and he does not win often, so he looks the safest of the placings rather than a winning threat.

Our price $16.00 · SP $21.00 · Dylan Gibbons

The value in the race. She was only two lengths off the winner over 2400m at Randwick last start and ran to a standard that none of her rivals have matched recently.

Our price $13.00 · SP $31.00 · Ben E Thompson

Brings the best closing numbers in the race and a hot win rate, and his stable is flying. The concern is the map: he settles well back at a track that rewards forward positions, in a race unlikely to be run at a strong tempo.

Our price $8.00 · SP $5.50 · Jason Collett

Shamedy is the value on form. He owns the best dry-track record in the race with six wins on good ground and comes here in excellent order, having charged home for second in Open company last start after being slowly away and forced wide without cover. He drops sharply in grade to a BM64 and draws to get the right run. The knock is that he is yet to win at 1500m and tends to settle a long way back.

Our price $8.50 · SP $12.00 · Shannen Llewellyn

Drawn ideally in barrier two, he should settle in the forward division the Newcastle 1500m rewards.