Toodyay tips and results

Our price $1.90 · Zephen Johnston-Porter

On form she is clearly the one to beat. From barrier 5 she should settle about third, just behind Teabiscuit, which is the right spot in a slowly run race at a track where horses handy at the 400m do best. She's a young mare who is still improving, and she's hard to beat at the weights.

Our price $5.50 · Mollie Clark

His first-up run in a much stronger Class 3 on a Good 4 was solid enough to win this if he holds that form, and he should improve second up. Early speed from barrier 4 should put him handy behind or alongside the only genuine leader.

Our price $6.50 · Holly Watson

She has a good chance to bounce back on a Good track. Her recent defeats all came on soft ground, where she is 0 from 13, and every one of her wins has been on good ground. Her Kalgoorlie third while wide all the way was a run that could win this. Holly Watson has 3 wins from 5 rides at Toodyay and a good draw should give her cover.

Our price $3.60 · Jarrad Noske

The speed map gives her the race on a plate. She is the only genuine leader, starts from barrier 3 and should control a slow pace. At a mile she has been caught late, but her Kalgoorlie third when leading was the best run of anyone in this field. Coming back to 1350m against much weaker opposition, with fitness confirmed by a trial last week, she should be very hard to run down.

Our price $5.00 · Brayden Gaerth

But her recent runs have mostly been from well back, getting home late without threatening. With a lone leader likely to set a slow pace, she needs a lot to go her way, and her jockey is out of form.

Our price $6.00 · Kayla Holroyd

His recent runs are the most reliable in the race. He has kept running close to winning standard in northern handicaps, and he carries only 53kg with the claim. The slow pace and settling back are the real concerns, and he rarely wins.

Our price $2.90 · Brandon Louis

Che Figata has the soundest form in a weak maiden. He has run close to a winning standard in each of his last three races, including a solid 4th over 1300m at Belmont where he led early. He can adapt to the tempo and has a good draw, which should let him hold a spot closer to the lead than the map suggests. The stable and jockey are both quiet, but on form he is the one to beat.

Our price $4.00 · Jarrad Noske

Arno River's close second at Belmont was the best single run in the race and would win this. He should get the ideal spot on or near the lead from barrier 5. His last start was poor after a wide draw, so there's some doubt over which horse turns up, and 60kg over a new trip is a test.

Our price $5.00 · Holly Watson

His trials were mixed: a sharp jump-out second, then an ordinary 1000m hit-out. Keep him in exotics.

Our price $2.50 · Lucy Fiore

Those runs would win this race. He is at his best on good ground and should get a clean run sitting just behind Coondle, the only likely leader. That spot suits this track, where horses handy at the 400m win most often.

Our price $4.20 · Kayla Holroyd

Coondle should lead on his own and set a pace that suits him. Last start he led and was only run down by Mars Mission while carrying 3.5kg more. The weights now favour Coondle by five kilos between the two. His recent runs have been very even and would be good enough to win this grade.

Our price $5.00 · Ebony Johnson

His trainer also has a good record at Toodyay. This time he has five kilos the worse of the weights with Coondle and probably settles back in a race with only moderate pace. Both are against him. He is a strong place chance and can still win if the pace turns out quicker than expected.

Our price $9.00 · Jason Li

He draws barrier 1 and has the speed to sit just behind Coondle, which is how most winners race at Toodyay. His Derby second in a much stronger race would put him right in this. His form swings a lot and his stable is out of form, so keep the stake small.

Our price $2.30 · Chris Parnham

The clear form horse. That run rates as the best of anyone's recent form here. Sovereign Rock and Ribellato should take each other on early, which suits her finish. She is short and needs a clean run from the back, but she should improve from that first start.

Our price $5.00 · Victoria Corver

A genuine speed horse who returns to the 1100m trip that produced his best run, a third at Northam. He led and weakened over 1200m last start. That run leaves doubts about whether he can finish off a race, and Ribellato should ensure he doesn't get an easy lead.

Our price $8.00 · Jefferson Tsang

A well-drawn speed horse who arrives off a trial win for a stable in form. He should sit on or with Sovereign Rock, which gives him every chance on a track that suits handy runners. His record of 17 starts without a win is a real concern, and his race form has been plain. He is best treated as a place chance on his position in the run rather than as a winner.

Our price $13.00 · Sasha Starley

An honest mare whose recent runs stack up well against this field. She was fourth behind Chandra at Northam, finishing well from off the pace, and she should improve for that run. A fast pace should bring her into it late.

Our price $2.80 · Sharni Webster

The class runner of the race. She has run consistently in city restricted grades and won her last country race at this level by leading, and her second-up record (two wins from five) suits today. From barrier 4 she should settle second or third behind a moderate pace, which is the winning spot here. The 61kg is a real burden against lightweights, but on form she is the most likely winner.

Our price $4.50 · Kayla Holroyd

A tough, honest mare that keeps turning up in races like this. Her Derby second over 1120m would be enough to win this, and she ran second at her only Toodyay start. Barrier 1 lets her save ground, but she needs to be close enough by the turn to use her finish.

Our price $5.50 · Holly Nottle

Her early speed will be a factor from barrier 2, and her Bunbury run shows she has the ability when things go her way. The worry is that she keeps finding one or two too good late, and she will have to hold off stronger finishers carrying less weight than Cheryl's Shout. She has a place chance from the best spot in the run, but she is too short to back for the win as a maiden.

Our price $5.00 · Jason Lyon

On recent form this nine-year-old is as good as anything in the race, with placings in stronger Broome grades where he ran at a winning standard. Take the each-way value.

Our price $3.80 · Zephen Johnston-Porter

The in-form horse in the race. Two wins and a fourth from his last three starts, and he races handily from barrier 2, which suits a track where horses near the lead at the 400m win most often. The 59kg and the step up to 1850m are fair questions, but he has run well at around this distance before.

Our price $4.80 · Lucy Fiore

She has raced consistently, won her only start here over 1850m, and gets a big weight drop from Grandad's Adiction. The worry is that she was clearly beaten by that horse last start, has a low winning rate, and tends to find little late in her races. Her stable is also out of form.

Our price $6.50 · Victoria Corver

An improving young mare who ran a strong second at Bunbury last start and drops 2.5kg. She finishes well, and backmarkers who move into the race before the turn have won at Toodyay. Barrier 12, her keenness and the rise in class mean she needs some luck in running.

Our price $9.00 · Holly Watson

The value runner. His Bunbury run in a stronger race last start compares well with the leading chances here, and he should race on the pace, the position that wins most often at Toodyay. He stays the trip, and his jockey has an outstanding record at this track.

Our price $5.00 · Jason Lyon

Side Show is the most consistent performer in the field. In stronger handicaps he has run to a standard that would win this. His early speed should get him a sit on the leader at a moderate pace, and sitting handy is the best run style here. The gear back on can explain his weak Bunbury run. The main question is whether he can see out 1850m for the first time, and he doesn't win often.

Our price $7.00 · Brandon Louis

Point Of Luck has won over this course and distance, and she's 3:1-1-0 at the trip, so she'll suit the conditions. Her fifth at Northam last start looks better than it was, because she got home past beaten horses after a slow early pace. Sitting back near the tail at a moderate pace is a concern. Still, horses from the back have won here, and her track record keeps her in the finish.

Our price $8.00 · Kayla Holroyd

Kirrily's best runs in May and June would beat this field, and she drops a long way in class with a light weight. Her early speed from barrier 9 should get her in the box seat just behind the leaders.