Muswellbrook tips and results

Our price $7.00 · SP $17.00 · Jack Baker

A quality-bred gelding whose Hong Kong runs were competitive at a much higher level, so maiden company on country soil should be much easier. Two trials show he is ready, and the claim and draw help. Against that he has never won, is returning from a spell, and may be too far back in a slow-run race at a track that favours horses on the pace.

Our price $14.00 · SP $21.00 · Olivia Dalton

She carries only 54kg and has the blinkers fitted for the first time.

Our price $12.00 · SP $21.00 · Daniel A Northey

A trial fifth beaten just over a length at Scone last week over the same distance and on the same ground.

Our price $5.80 · SP $7.00 · Heavelon Van Der Hoven

Her second at Canberra over 1300m on soft ground was arguably the best run in this field, beaten only narrowly after sitting handy. She maps ideally from gate four to settle in the first few in a race with little early pressure, which is exactly the profile that wins here. First-up in a stronger grade at Newcastle she was plain, but she strips fitter second-up. A stable without a recent winner is the obvious risk.

Our price $8.00 · SP $19.00 · Olivia Dalton

Consistent without winning — one victory from seven starts but rarely far from the action. Her third over 1600m at Tamworth was a solid staying effort and she was beaten under five lengths in a Class 1 on soft ground at Goulburn last time. She gets in with a claim and stays at a suitable trip, but she tends to be one-paced when the sprint goes on and her stable is without a recent winner.

Our price $6.00 · SP $8.00 · Braith Nock

She is drawn to get a soft run just behind the speed, which is where this track wants you, and her rider is here for this one ride only. Slightly behind the stable's leading hope, but well capable of filling a hole.

Our price $5.00 · SP $4.40 · Mikayla Weir

Maps as the winner if the race is run to script. He is the only horse in the field with a leading record, the tempo is predicted slow, and he gets in with just 55.5kg. His last three runs read second, first and second and he was only run down late last time. The question is the extra 100m and the class rise, but from the front on a soft track he will take catching.

Our price $6.00 · SP $3.80 · Gabrielle Johnston

A hard-fit four-year-old who won at Tamworth then ran two brave seconds, including one that had Hinto behind him. He has the gate speed to negate a wide draw and sit right on the leader's heels, which is where you want to be here. The knock is the class rise and the step to 1500m for the first time, but his form is the most dependable in the race.

Our price $16.00 · SP $26.00 · Liberty Smyth

The blinkers come back on, which may sharpen him up, and he gets in light with a claim.

Our price $8.00 · SP $7.50 · Aaron Bullock

Rising and improving, with a recent soft-track win and a map that should see him in the first six.

Our price $5.00 · SP $6.00 · Mikayla Weir

Currumbin Alley is the one to beat. He draws the inside, maps to settle handy and has a strong first-up profile plus a smart soft-track record. His latest prep included a win and multiple placings, and he drops into a suitable grade. The concern is a 126-day break and a plain trial, but the map and class edge outweigh that.

Our price $7.00 · SP $4.20 · Liberty Smyth

Jason Darren looks the likely leader from a good gate and should get an easy time in front. He has a solid soft-track place record and has been around the mark at this track, including two seconds. His overall win rate is modest and he is yet to win first-up, but the map is a big plus in a race where on-pace runners are favoured.

Our price $7.50 · SP $6.00 · Anna Weatherlake

Flamboyant Lad drops from stronger company and has a win at this track and trip on his record. He has the speed to be handy, but the wide gate is a real worry at this start, and he carries top weight. His last run in a better race was only fair when he led and weakened.

Our price $8.00 · SP $26.00 · Daniel A Northey

Ode So Much is the value runner. He is a progressive young horse with a strong soft-track record and a good second-up profile. His last-start third here over this trip was honest after settling off the speed, and he should be better for that run. He is not the most likely winner, but he is overpriced relative to his form.