Sha Tin tips and results

Our price $4.30 · SP $9.00 · Brenton Avdulla

Golden Fortune is the form horse in an open Monday Class 5. He won over 1800m at Happy Valley twelve days ago, settled third and was still there at the 400m, and Avdulla rides him again from barrier 3. He has also run second at this trip at Sha Tin when on the speed. A moderate tempo suits a horse that can hold a forward spot.

Our price $5.20 · SP $5.50 · Nichola Yuen

He has won twice from nine at Sha Tin over 1800m, and first-up he led and ran second in the same Valley race Golden Fortune won. The claim and barrier 5 help him control a moderate tempo. He is second-up, where he is 0 from 2, and the stable is cold. That record keeps him as a place chance rather than the horse to beat.

Our price $6.50 · SP $4.10 · Zac Purton

Star Brose is the class dropper. He was seventh at Sha Tin over 1800m in a Class 4 after getting keen and finding himself last on the turn, then earlier ran third at the Valley in the same grade and second over 2000m when he raced closer. Purton is the right booking to give him a more forward steer from barrier 8. He has one win from 22 starts and none at this track and trip, so he is a place runner in a race that favours horses already on the speed.

Our price $4.20 · SP $3.70 · Matthew Poon

Shotgun is the form horse. From barrier 1 he can hold a forward spot, which is what wins at Sha Tin, and a fortnight ago he raced on the speed and finished third in this class over 1400m. He has already won at the track and trip on good ground. A hot pace is the danger for a leader, so the stake stays measured.

Our price $4.00 · SP $2.30 · Andrea Atzeni

Barrier 4 helps again.

Our price $5.50 · SP $4.40 · Zac Purton

Invictus has the race shape Sha Tin likes: Zac Purton, barrier 3, and a habit of racing in the first two. He was a close fourth when he led this class over 1400m, and he ran an honest fourth first up at the Valley. He has still never won, and with two other leaders the early speed can be too strong.

Our price $6.00 · SP $3.30 · Harry Bentley

Lucky Year has the strongest single piece of recent form in the race, chasing home the winner over the Sha Tin mile in September ahead of several of today's rivals. Her sixth here over 1800m last start was better than it reads after being held up at a key stage. The reservations are real though: she is yet to win, the stable is cold, and she tends to drop back further than is ideal on this track.

Our price $9.00 · SP $9.00 · Matthew Poon

Lucky Balerion is the on-pace runner best suited to the Sha Tin pattern. He has been drawn wide at his last two starts yet still raced prominently and ran to a winning standard both times, including the strong September mile where Lucky Year finished second. From barrier 6 he should sit in the first three or four and give a kick turning for home.

Our price $10.00 · SP $31.00 · Karis Teetan

He now drops a class and keeps the gear that sparked the improvement. He is the quickest away in the race and should settle second or lead, which is exactly the profile that wins at Sha Tin.

Our price $5.00 · SP $4.70 · Zac Purton

One of the few runners in the field with genuine upside. His first-up fourth over 1200m was run to a winning standard after a poor start and late crowding, and the step to 1400m should suit his pedigree. Purton replacing a lesser rider is the clearest intent signal on the card.

Our price $7.00 · SP $6.00 · Karis Teetan

On the map he is the pick of the field, drawing three with a light weight and the speed to sit in the first four. His best 1400m form this year would win a race like this, and his first-up run over 1200m was sound.

Our price $6.50 · SP $4.90 · Lyle Hewitson

He is included because that recent run and his Class 3 placing put him among the three most likely winners. He is not the top pick because Sha Tin rewards horses already in the first few at the turn, and he again maps midfield. He has not won on Good or at this track, and both horse and stable are cold at the moment.

Our price $14.00 · SP $32.00 · Brenton Avdulla

In a moderate tempo he is the horse most likely to control it from barrier 5, and his recent Class 4 efforts have been good enough to be in the finish. Each-way covers the win-shy profile.

Our price $3.60 · SP $4.80 · Zac Purton

He has four starts at Sha Tin over 1000m for a win, a second and a third, and last time he sat second early, took over and won a Class 4 under Zac Purton. He has also placed twice on good.

Our price $6.00 · SP $9.50 · Brenton Avdulla

He resumes after a winning Sha Tin trial with a first-up record of four starts for a win and three placings, and he drops out of Class 3. He is the quickest to begin, and barrier 12 is a plus on the straight course. He has six placings from 12 runs at Sha Tin over 1000m without a win there, and he has raced from the back in several recent starts.

Our price $7.50 · SP $4.60 · Britney Wong

Zouper Fellow led all the way and just missed at this course and distance three weeks ago, and a three-kilo claim leaves him very light from barrier 2. That forward map fits a fast straight sprint. The same pattern has also seen him weaken badly after racing handy, his only second-up run was unplaced, and his rider has yet to win at Sha Tin.

Our price $5.00 · SP $6.70 · Matthew Poon

Ka Ying Radiance produced the strongest performance in this field last start when a close second from a handy spot, and he had already won a trial coming into that run. He is fit, racing at his preferred track and trip, and carries a light weight. The knock is a winless record from eight starts and a wider gate that could leave him a pair further back than ideal.

Our price $10.00 · SP $15.00 · Andrea Atzeni

Prime Ace is the forgotten horse. His debut third at this track and distance was one of the best efforts in the race on time, and he had legitimate excuses last start when he raced fiercely and his rider lost the whip. John Size adds ear plugs to settle him.

Our price $6.00 · SP $12.00 · Derek Leung

A young, improving horse whose Derby and Classic Cup form is above most of this field. It can sit handy from barrier 8 and carries only 52kg. It steps up in class, and its connections are modest.

Our price $6.50 · SP $2.50 · Alexis Badel

An improving, high-strike-rate horse who gets a favourable draw and weight. The step into Group 2 is a real test, and its tendency to settle back is a concern at this track.

Our price $7.20 · SP $5.30 · Lyle Hewitson

Happy Shooter won a Class 4 over this course and trip last start carrying 61kg, racing on the pace and still finding enough late. He drops to 54.5kg and draws barrier 1, so he can hold a forward spot in a race that favours horses in the first few. The rise into Class 3 and a second-up record of none from two keep him third.

Our price $8.00 · SP $16.00 · Nichola Yuen

He is mapped to lead, carries only 50kg after Nichola Yuen's claim, and last start ran third in this class at Sha Tin after being crowded and taken back from gate 13. A forward ride removes the luck he needed that day. Gate 9 means he must use petrol early, which is why he stays the value horse rather than a top-three selection.

Our price $6.00 · SP $4.50 · James Orman

Joyful Joy is the progressive horse in the race. Three starts, two wins and a third, all at Sha Tin, and the last two efforts were strong enough to suggest Class 3 is within reach. The mile is new and he has been winning from the back, which is the wrong pattern if the leaders do not overdo it. Barrier 3 gives Orman a chance to slot closer. Each-way covers the class and distance questions.

Our price $8.50 · SP $6.10 · Alexis Badel

Master Lucky maps to be in the first few from barrier 2 with the lightest weight in the race. He has been a regular placer at Sha Tin, winning a Class 4 1400m on good and finishing fourth first-up in Class 3 when he pulled.

Our price $12.00 · SP $43.00 · Brenton Avdulla

Mister Dapper is the value. The knock is that he races on the speed in a race that looks genuinely fast and he has not won for a while, so each-way is the right shape.

Our price $8.00 · SP $11.00 · Nichola Yuen

Aeroinvincible is the overlay in the race. He won this class over this trip three weeks ago from the front and has run to a winning level in each of his last four starts, something only the two best-fancied runners can match.