Punt like a Pro, without the know!
New Zealand · Saturday 16 May 2026
Our top pick won 2 of 8 races at Ellerslie. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
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Pure Lotus tops form assessment with recent strong 2nd at this track/distance (1:0-1-0 at T&D), second up from spell where it has placed once from one start. Barrier 1 ideal for likely fast tempo at volatile Ellerslie, McNab's track form (19%) adds edge. Best pure form chance despite maiden status.
Barrier 4 and 56.5kg advantageous in compressed weights, Rooke booking boosts. Fast tempo at Ellerslie's long straight suits closing style.
Flyhalf reliable consistent (recent 232x5), strong 1200m record (4:0-2-1) and second up placegetter. Lighter weight, barrier 7 neutral at bias-free Ellerslie, Collett's 20% recent form key. Suits fast tempo with prior closings, value place chance in high-volatility maiden.
Midfield map viable at long-straight Ellerslie, recent fitness trumps pure form rivals.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4 | Armagh | 11 | Warren Kennedy | Danny Walker & Arron Tata | 58.5kg | $10.70 |
| 2nd | 5 | Manolete | 10 | Joe Doyle | T W Cole | 58.5kg | $8.70 |
| 3rd | 8 | Flyhalf | 6 | Samantha Collett | T W Cole | 56.5kg | $11.20 |
| 4th | 1 | Requisite | 12 | Matthew Cameron | Ms K Stead | 58.5kg | $19.00 |
| 5th | 19 | Just Go Boom | 8 | Jack Taplin | B S Gillovic | 55.5kg | $44.20 |
| 6th | 9 | Silky Shuba | 4 | George Rooke | S B Marsh | 56.5kg | $4.20 |
| 7th | 6 | Our Lykoi | 2 | Matthew Cartwright | Sophia Nolan & Hanna Orting | 58.5kg | $11.20 |
| 8th | 2 | Pure Lotus | 1 | Michael Mc Nab | A W Pike | 58.5kg | $3.30 |
| 9th | 18 | Miss Caterina | 3 | Masahiro Hashizume | Ms D Logan | 56.5kg | $27.00 |
| 10th | 11 | La Tienda | 7 | Rihaan Goyaram | Ms J K Mahoney | 54.5kg | $13.50 |
| 11th | 12 | Bellavinsky | 9 | Corentin Berge | Emma Faber | 56.5kg | $19.10 |
| 12th | 16 | Poise | 5 | Bridget Grylls | T W Cole | 56.5kg | $34.80 |
| Scr | 3 | Earlicheer | 14 | S B Marsh | 58.5kg | ||
| Scr | 7 | Golden Point | 13 | Ethan Jones | Ms A S Johnson | 58.5kg | |
| Scr | 10 | Stranger Times | 12 | S & E Clotworthy | 56.5kg | ||
| Scr | 13 | Osaka Girl | 18 | Ms D Jeffcoat | 56.5kg | ||
| Scr | 14 | Pact | 13 | Masahiro Hashizume | Ms D Logan | 56.5kg | |
| Scr | 15 | Sebastiano | 5 | Ms D Logan | 58.5kg | ||
| Scr | 17 | El Pronto | 14 | Ms K A Hoskin | 58.5kg |
Top form pick on pure merit. Recent narrow 2nd at this track/distance in BM75 off Soft5 shows peak fitness and suitability to Ellerslie's long straight. Improving pattern with 5 placings last 10, Joe Doyle retains, moderate tempo ideal for midfield runner. Barrier neutral at volatile Ellerslie.
Strong class drop player with elite Ellerslie stats (3 wins from 6). Recent 3rd at Arawa BM75 carrying today's weight, prior 2100m win. Barrier 4 perfect for likely leader role in moderate tempo.
Emerging lightly-raced type with excellent recent 2nd in BM75 at 2100m. High strike rates, Kennedy retains successful association. Ellerslie long straight suits backmarker profile despite wide draw in neutral bias track.
Fresh win at 2100m BM65 last start shows staying ability, consistent recent form with places. Lightweight advantageous in open weights, Ellerslie suits closers.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 11 | Super Fly | 10 | Michael Mc Nab | Conor & Sarah Fahy | 54.5kg | $4.60 |
| 2nd | 3 | Up The Anti | 1 | Masahiro Hashizume | L O'sullivan & A Scott | 58.5kg | $10.00 |
| 3rd | 1 | War Of Succession | 4 | Hayley Hassman | Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson | 57.5kg | $11.40 |
| 4th | 12 | Thrilling | 11 | George Rooke | Ms L Latta | 54kg | $13.90 |
| 5th | 8 | Ruach | 2 | Tayla Mitchell | A D Fuller | 55kg | $13.90 |
| 6th | 10 | Charlbury | 13 | Ethan Jones | Ms C Cameron | 55.5kg | $52.00 |
| 7th | 2 | Boxmoss | 6 | Samantha Collett | C J Wood | 59kg | $10.70 |
| 8th | 14 | He's Classic | 7 | Elen Nicholas | B Wallace & G Cooksley | 54kg | $39.60 |
| 9th | 5 | Hakata Bay | 8 | Corentin Berge | Ms M Falconer | 57kg | $12.90 |
| 10th | 6 | Play It Again Sam | 12 | Warren Kennedy | Barbara Kennedy | 57kg | $6.70 |
| 11th | 7 | Volunteer | 5 | Matthew Cartwright | G Richardson & R Norvall | 56.5kg | $14.00 |
| 12th | 4 | The Exponent | 9 | Joe Doyle | S B Marsh | 58kg | $7.30 |
| 13th | 9 | Bassoroc | 3 | Jack Taplin | S B Marsh | 52.5kg | $14.80 |
| Scr | 13 | Victorious Warrior | 13 | Matthew Cameron | D R Wiles | 54kg |
Direct rematch with Excite after 2nd in same Te Rapa Listed; Ellerslie winner previously with consistent sprint places. Moderate tempo and inside draw aid in volatile track. Black-type exposure and stable form make strong threat despite distance query.
Debut winner gets prime gate 1, light weight and top jockey McNab in Listed. Proxy strength via trainer/jockey combo offsets limited starts. Ellerslie neutrality and moderate tempo suit forward run. Value in upside despite class rise.
Clear form standout with recent Listed win at Te Rapa (1400m Good 4) beating key rival Incandescent; G1 4th shows black-type class edge over field. Neutral barrier suits Ellerslie's long straight. Elite connections enhance Listed prospects.
Respectable 6th latest behind Excite/Incandescent same race; prior Open 2nd. Neutral draw suits Ellerslie volatility.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Incandescent | 2 | Joe Doyle | R James & R Wellwood | 57kg | $2.50 |
| 2nd | 5 | Grocer's Girl | 5 | Samantha Collett | A W Pike | 55kg | $3.50 |
| 3rd | 6 | Bella Bonita | 4 | Lynsey Satherley | Ms L M Laing | 55kg | $29.30 |
| 4th | 3 | Royce | 3 | Masahiro Hashizume | T W Cole | 57kg | $4.00 |
| 5th | 4 | O'baby | 1 | Michael Mc Nab | K A Pertab | 55kg | $4.40 |
| Scr | 1 | Excite | 5 | George Rooke | R James & R Wellwood | 57kg |
Vegas Queen tops form assessment with proven elite class (G2 win, multiple Open successes), recent dominant win carrying 60kg at Te Rapa, and excellent Ellerslie record (7:2-2-0). Improving trend, handles Good 4 (3:1-1-1), suits fast tempo as midfield finisher on long Ellerslie straight.
Grande Gallo showed sharp form with recent 2nd at Ellerslie over 1200m, building fitness in regular prep. Solid Open record, Ellerslie stats (9:1-2-2), maps midfield to use long straight in fast tempo.
Frostfair reliable at Ellerslie (9:2-1-2), recent 3rd in this Open company, thrives on Good tracks (10:4-0-1). Class drop helps, midfield position ideal for Ellerslie's bias-neutral, long straight setup. Solid place chance despite low win rate.
Pokuru Gold offers value second-up (2:2-0-0 wins), from powerhouse stable, Ellerslie success (3:2-0-0). Recent trial run sharpens fitness for fast tempo; light weight and neutral barrier suit.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5 | Yaldi | 9 | Matthew Cartwright | Andrew Forsman | 56kg | $7.10 |
| 2nd | 3 | Pokuru Gold | 6 | Hayley Hassman | Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson | 56kg | $6.00 |
| 3rd | 9 | Lachie | 1 | Elen Nicholas | Barbara Kennedy | 54kg | $11.80 |
| 4th | 10 | Astoria Brooke | 8 | Michael Mc Nab | A W Pike | 54kg | $23.90 |
| 5th | 6 | Grande Gallo | 11 | Joe Doyle | L O'sullivan & A Scott | 55.5kg | $11.00 |
| 6th | 4 | Frostfair | 4 | Warren Kennedy | L R Noble | 56kg | $10.50 |
| 7th | 8 | Quick Fire | 7 | Joe Nishizuka | Ms K Fawcett | 51.5kg | $44.60 |
| 8th | 2 | December | 3 | George Rooke | R James & R Wellwood | 59kg | $5.30 |
| 9th | 1 | Vegas Queen | 10 | Masahiro Hashizume | K I Rae | 60kg | $4.30 |
| 10th | 11 | Atlanta Gold | 2 | Tayla Mitchell | A J Morley | 53kg | $23.50 |
| 11th | 7 | Super Photon | 5 | Jack Taplin | S B Marsh | 52.5kg | $12.10 |
Second up stats solid, barrier 5 exploits inside bias, light weight aids in fast tempo. Ellerslie volatility suits progressive profile.
Zivou leads pure form with consistent black-type placings, recent strong 2nd at Ellerslie carrying more. Kennedy retains ride (40% combo), handles topweight well. Fast tempo suits midfield map, barrier OK at bias-neutral track. Superior class/recency edges second pick despite no distance win.
King's English barrier 1 leverages moderate inside bias, track winner on good going suits conditions. Second up record solid, likely leader in fast tempo. Recent G3 excused by wide draw; form holds for place claims in volatile Ellerslie sprint.
Second up sharpener suits, high place strike despite wide draw. Ellerslie long straight aids backmarkers in fast tempo; overlay in high-volatility race.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | King's English | 1 | Masahiro Hashizume | Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson | 58kg | $5.20 |
| 2nd | 3 | Bulgari | 6 | Joe Doyle | Darryn & Briar Weatherley | 57kg | $8.30 |
| 3rd | 7 | Arwen | 5 | George Rooke | R James & R Wellwood | 55kg | $12.20 |
| 4th | 6 | Lubeck | 10 | Tayla Mitchell | S B Marsh | 55kg | $5.30 |
| 5th | 1 | Zivou | 7 | Warren Kennedy | R James & R Wellwood | 58kg | $5.50 |
| 6th | 11 | Oratia Beauty | 8 | Samantha Collett | Ms K A Hoskin | 55kg | $22.20 |
| 7th | 10 | Hot Card | 3 | Matthew Cameron | L R Noble | 55kg | $30.50 |
| 8th | 4 | Lady Iris | 9 | Matthew Cartwright | S B Marsh | 56.5kg | $14.00 |
| 9th | 8 | Biding My Time | 4 | Michael Mc Nab | D G Greene | 55kg | $3.80 |
| 10th | 12 | Shiniqua | 2 | Hayley Hassman | S R Autridge | 55kg | $55.30 |
| Scr | 5 | Ruby Rush | 2 | Jack Taplin | L O'sullivan & A Scott | 53kg | |
| Scr | 9 | Elusive Faith | 12 | K A Pertab | 55kg |
Elite closing ability trumps minor barrier concern.
First-up stats decent, barrier 5 ideal for fast tempo, McNab booking positive (19% track strike). Form consistent with 6 placings last 10, suits Good 4.
Miss Bo Peep's recency stands out with BM75 win 19 days ago (Heavy 9, barrier 15), 50% win rate impressive. Second-up stats perfect, barrier 4 exploits Ellerslie inside moderate bias. Improving trend outweighs class rise in volatile Saturday metro sprint.
Walker stable elite, Good 4 record perfect (3:3-0-0).
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 7 | Grinzinger Moon | 7 | Ethan Jones | R James & R Wellwood | 56kg | $2.50 |
| 2nd | 11 | Live On Air | 8 | Joe Nishizuka | Ms D Guy | 51kg | $23.80 |
| 3rd | 2 | Egyptian Queen | 2 | Hayley Hassman | Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson | 58kg | $7.30 |
| 4th | 6 | Dramatic Miss | 9 | Tayla Mitchell | S B Marsh | 55kg | $16.20 |
| 5th | 8 | Midori Glory | 3 | George Rooke | T W Mitchell | 56kg | $11.20 |
| 6th | 12 | Lady Impending | 1 | Masahiro Hashizume | S B Marsh | 54kg | $9.20 |
| 7th | 3 | Miss Bo Peep | 4 | Jack Taplin | L O'sullivan & A Scott | 56.5kg | $5.70 |
| 8th | 9 | Miss Fladgate | 5 | Michael Mc Nab | S B Marsh | 55.5kg | $9.70 |
| 9th | 5 | Perfect Dividends | 6 | Rihaan Goyaram | J & R Vance | 56kg | $13.00 |
| Scr | 1 | Legally Binding | 10 | Hyeontaek Oh | Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson | 57.5kg | |
| Scr | 4 | Reptak | 6 | Masahiro Hashizume | L O'sullivan & A Scott | 59kg | |
| Scr | 10 | Scolera | 10 | Samantha Collett | J C Collett | 55.5kg |
Good 4 form solid at 3:1-1-1. Long straight nullifies barrier 8.
Recent 3rd BM65 Te Rapa shows class handling. Rooke/Wellwood stable hot (18% combo). High track suitability for Good 4. Ellerslie's long straight aids backmarkers.
Ashoka tops form assessment with exceptional consistency (6 top-3 in 8 starts) and proven Good 4 performer (2:1-0-0). Ellerslie record reads 2:0-2-0 showing track affinity. McNab booking signals intent. Moderate-fast tempo suits closing style on long Ellerslie straight. Clear form leader over inconsistent rivals.
5 top-3 last 10 starts, Good 4 record. Moderate-fast tempo suits on-speed runner at leader-biased Ellerslie historically. Value play despite class rise given sharp fitness.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Hakushu | 5 | Jack Taplin | S B Marsh | 57kg | $7.00 |
| 2nd | 6 | Wine Rocs | 12 | Lynsey Satherley | Debbie Sweeney | 59kg | $23.80 |
| 3rd | 10 | Cosmic Dream | 11 | George Rooke | R James & R Wellwood | 57kg | $4.60 |
| 4th | 1 | Fleeting Star | 8 | Joe Nishizuka | G Richardson & R Norvall | 57.5kg | $3.60 |
| 5th | 5 | To The Max | 2 | Matthew Cartwright | R James & R Wellwood | 59kg | $9.40 |
| 6th | 16 | Durrani | 1 | Samantha Collett | C J Wood | 56.5kg | $12.70 |
| 7th | 12 | Foxglove | 13 | Hayley Hassman | L O'sullivan & A Scott | 55kg | $25.30 |
| 8th | 19 | Atkins | 9 | Matthew Cameron | T W Cole | 56.5kg | $16.90 |
| 9th | 3 | Nicconi County | 10 | Rihaan Goyaram | J & R Vance | 58kg | $63.00 |
| 10th | 7 | Esternay | 6 | Warren Kennedy | L R Noble | 58kg | $10.00 |
| 11th | 18 | Amusement | 4 | Tayla Mitchell | Darryn & Briar Weatherley | 55.5kg | $16.40 |
| 12th | 20 | Smooth Warrior | 7 | Bridget Grylls | D R Wiles | 58.5kg | $35.20 |
| 13th | 17 | Burnished | 3 | Elen Nicholas | M & K Murdoch | 56.5kg | $40.80 |
| Scr | 4 | Ashoka | 14 | Michael Mc Nab | A W Pike | 59kg | |
| Scr | 8 | Suavetta | 15 | S & E Clotworthy | 57.5kg | ||
| Scr | 9 | Tale Of The Gypsy | 16 | Masahiro Hashizume | S B Marsh | 57.5kg | |
| Scr | 11 | Cosmopolitan | 19 | G Richardson & R Norvall | 57kg | ||
| Scr | 13 | Hasstorock | 17 | Corentin Berge | R James & R Wellwood | 57kg | |
| Scr | 14 | She's Untouchable | 13 | Joe Doyle | S B Marsh | 57kg | |
| Scr | 15 | Al Azhar | 21 | L O'sullivan & A Scott | 56.5kg | ||
| Scr | 21 | Santita | 17 | B Wallace & G Cooksley | 56kg | ||
| Scr | 22 | Iridescent | 17 | Ms M L Bradley | 56kg |
Pukana tops form assessment with consistent recent placings (543), barrier 1 positioning as likely leader in moderate-fast tempo suiting Ellerslie's long straight.
Form consistent but lacks Pukana's recency edge.
Wee Nessy third on recent Ellerslie win breaking maiden, strong track record (4:1-1-0) and Kennedy booking signals intent. Competitive best time, suits moderate-fast tempo on long straight despite class rise.
Orson Stone value pick from top stable Forsman, lightly raced with consistent form (2416x6), second up suits. Wide barrier 20 explains recent 6th but Ellerslie neutral bias and long straight aids backmarkers.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Inside Out | 4 | Michael Mc Nab | Darryn & Briar Weatherley | 59kg | $4.90 |
| 2nd | 16 | Wee Nessy | 12 | Warren Kennedy | Barbara Kennedy | 56.5kg | $3.90 |
| 3rd | 4 | Orson Stone | 15 | Elen Nicholas | Andrew Forsman | 59kg | $9.30 |
| 4th | 9 | Cheeky Devil | 7 | Masahiro Hashizume | Ms L Brennan | 57kg | $12.40 |
| 5th | 18 | Clear Conscience | 3 | George Rooke | Ms P Gerard | 56kg | $8.80 |
| 6th | 13 | Sharapova | 16 | Corentin Berge | Ms M Falconer | 57kg | $54.50 |
| 7th | 8 | Marriage Vows | 5 | Rihaan Goyaram | L K Collins | 55.5kg | $28.30 |
| 8th | 1 | Pukana | 1 | Hayley Hassman | Tim & Margaret Carter | 58kg | $9.10 |
| 9th | 15 | Vanilla Storm | 11 | Joe Doyle | Andrew Forsman | 56.5kg | $29.80 |
| 10th | 14 | Lyin' Eyes | 9 | Matthew Cameron | C J Wood | 56.5kg | $17.20 |
| 11th | 20 | With Grace | 8 | Tayla Mitchell | Ms K A Hoskin | 54.5kg | $58.90 |
| 12th | 11 | My Fair Lily | 14 | Matthew Cartwright | S B Marsh | 57kg | $25.00 |
| 13th | 6 | Trafalgar | 13 | Samantha Collett | T W Cole | 58.5kg | $24.70 |
| 14th | 19 | New Castle | 6 | Ethan Jones | Ms M L Bradley | 58kg | $35.20 |
| 15th | 17 | Shining Pearl | 2 | Jack Taplin | T J Miller | 53kg | $34.60 |
| 16th | 10 | La Querida | 10 | Joe Nishizuka | Ms M Falconer | 54kg | $50.00 |
| Scr | 2 | I Park | 13 | Ms L Brennan | 59kg | ||
| Scr | 5 | Radradra | 18 | C J Wood | 58.5kg | ||
| Scr | 7 | Imperial Empress | 16 | Tayla Mitchell | S B Marsh | 57kg | |
| Scr | 12 | Rumours | 17 | Joe Doyle | Darryn & Briar Weatherley | 57kg | |
| Scr | 21 | Tarzador | 15 | Team Rogerson | 54.5kg | ||
| Scr | 22 | Lady Mak | 14 | P A Coutts | 54kg |
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