Punt like a Pro, without the know!
Queensland · Saturday 11 July 2026
Our top pick won 1 of 8 races at Gold Coast. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
top pick wonanother tip wonno tip won
Bollinger Miss gets the nod as top pick based on the critical combination of class drop and map advantage. Dropping from BM70 where she's been competitive to Class 2 is a significant edge, and barrier 1 allows her to settle in the ideal position to exploit Gold Coast's strong bias toward horses positioned top-3 at the 400m. While she hasn't won at 1400m, the class drop and track bias more than compensate.
The barrier 2 draw is ideal for settling in the midfield position that Gold Coast rewards, and the slight class drop from BM65 gives him an edge. His consistency is both a strength and weakness - he places regularly (35% strike rate) but struggles to win (12%).
However, there's a critical flaw in the selection: from barrier 3, this horse maps as a backmarker on a Gold Coast track where horses settling 7+ at the 400m win at only 5% compared to 19% for those on-pace. The track bias data is emphatic and recent (114 races). While the class advantage is real, it must overcome a structural disadvantage that has proven durable.
Archie Maximus represents the value play based on his perfect Gold Coast record and last-start victory at this exact track and distance. This is a speculative value play on track specialization.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4 | Gambino | 2 | Rob Thorburn | K M Schweida | 56.5kg | $4.40 |
| 2nd | 3 | Wrigley Field | 3 | Brandon Lerena | Jack Bruce | 59.5kg | $3.30 |
| 3rd | 5 | Bollinger Miss | 1 | Boris Thornton | Chris & Corey Munce | 58kg | $2.40 |
| 4th | 6 | Archie Maximus | 5 | Karl Zechner | M J Dunn | 57kg | $4.80 |
| 5th | 10 | In Great Spirit | 9 | Micheal Hellyer | Chris Anderson | 54kg | $31.00 |
| 6th | 11 | Icewater | 7 | Kirk Matheson | Daniel Bowen | 54kg | $51.00 |
| Scr | 1 | Ikasara | 10 | Bella Youngberry | Todd Pollard | 60.5kg | |
| Scr | 2 | Think Like Paddy | 4 | Nick Heywood | M J Dunn | 60kg | |
| Scr | 7 | Atlantic Coast | 11 | Adin Thompson | G Heinrich & B Rodgers | 55kg | |
| Scr | 8 | Cheerful Cat | 10 | James Moore | 54.5kg | ||
| Scr | 9 | King Cobama | 8 | Tiffani Brooker | Renita Beaton | 54.5kg | |
| Scr | 12 | Besiege | 6 | Nozi Tomizawa | Michael Nolan | 54kg |
However, barrier 14 is a significant concern at Gold Coast where position at the 400m is crucial. While she has the class to win, the wide barrier and 0-from-10 record prevent a top selection, making her a solid place chance.
Torque So Hot enters calculations primarily on trainer/jockey combination strength and recent placing form. The M J Dunn/Nick Heywood partnership strikes at 43%, and the gelding showed improvement when 2nd at Ballina last start. Barrier 7 allows him to settle in the first four, crucial at Gold Coast. Each-way value only.
Debutant with elite credentials. While the wide barrier is a concern, the jockey's tactical ability and the stable's form (three runners today) indicate readiness. Gold Coast maidens reward well-prepared types, and the gear setup (barrier blanket, ear muffs) shows professional debut planning.
From barrier 5, he's ideally placed to lead or sit outside the leader in what shapes as a fast tempo. The nasal strip removal is a positive gear change.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 9 | African Evening | 11 | Karl Zechner | Nicholas Beck | 57.5kg | $101.00 |
| 2nd | 13 | Yattazou | 14 | Jaden Lloyd | C J Waller | 56.5kg | $2.50 |
| 3rd | 5 | Best Eagle | 2 | Brandon Lerena | Ben Hull | 58.5kg | $26.00 |
| 4th | 14 | Secret Rose | 6 | Danny Peisley | P L Shailer | 56kg | $3.60 |
| 5th | 10 | Dancin In Moonlite | 1 | Boris Thornton | Matthew Hoysted | 57.5kg | $6.00 |
| 6th | 4 | Prophet Of Destiny | 8 | Courtney Bellamy | Chris Anderson | 57.5kg | $21.00 |
| 7th | 1 | Torque So Hot | 7 | Nick Heywood | M J Dunn | 60kg | $5.50 |
| 8th | 17 | Akku | 10 | Melissa Laming | 54kg | $31.00 | |
| 9th | 2 | Bang Its On | 9 | Kirk Matheson | Daniel Bowen | 59.5kg | $101.00 |
| 10th | 12 | Miss Dechambeau | 3 | Frederick Larson | A J Edmonds | 57.5kg | $31.00 |
| 11th | 11 | Helluva Road | 12 | Micheal Hellyer | Gary Doughty | 57.5kg | $101.00 |
| 12th | 6 | Take Shelter | 18 | Bailey Wheeler | Ben Ahrens | 58.5kg | $151.00 |
| 13th | 16 | Successismagic | 15 | Brooke Mackie | 57kg | $81.00 | |
| 14th | 18 | Be An Angel | 4 | G Heinrich & B Rodgers | 54kg | $151.00 | |
| Scr | 3 | Precise Star | 13 | Bella Youngberry | T J Gollan | 57.5kg | |
| Scr | 7 | Carpet Ride | 17 | Matthew Hoysted | 58kg | ||
| Scr | 8 | Subpoena Colada | 16 | Jag Guthmann-Chester | Matthew Hoysted | 58kg | |
| Scr | 15 | Pippie Pomar | 14 | Tony & Maddysen Sears | 55.5kg | ||
| Scr | 19 | Mildura Lad | 5 | H J Norman | 54kg | ||
| Scr | 20 | Elroy | 19 | K C Anderson | 54kg |
She has won two of her last three starts and returned with a solid 3rd in a CL2 fresh. From barrier 1 with 54.5kg, she maps perfectly to be prominent. This is the horse to beat.
She is building towards a win and should be right in the finish.
Watermelon is the epitome of consistency, having placed in five of his last six starts including a close 4th last time over this course and distance. He may lack the killer instinct to win often, but he rarely runs poorly and should be in the finish again. The top weight of 59kg is a query, but his fitness and track knowledge make him a solid place chance.
Vacillation is the value runner in this race. Despite never racing over 1800m, his recent form in CL5/BM65 level is superior to this BM68 grade. From barrier 2, he should get every chance and his consistent placing record suggests he is overdue.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5 | Old Song | 7 | Aidan Keeley | S J Morrisey | 56.5kg | $5.50 |
| 2nd | 8 | Sarah's Sonnets | 1 | Frederick Larson | Tony & Maddysen Sears | 54.5kg | $3.30 |
| 3rd | 6 | Notes | 8 | Karl Zechner | Vishan Venkaya | 56kg | $9.50 |
| 4th | 1 | Watermelon | 5 | Jaden Lloyd | R H Dart | 59kg | $4.80 |
| 5th | 4 | O'caldino | 4 | Bailey Wheeler | Christos Zintilis | 56.5kg | $9.00 |
| 6th | 3 | Vacillation | 2 | Adin Thompson | Ms M Brosnan | 57.5kg | $7.50 |
| 7th | 7 | Aima Sun | 3 | McKenzie Apel | Allan Chau | 53kg | $7.50 |
| 8th | 2 | Loyalty Counts | 6 | Brandon Lerena | P H Duncan | 58.5kg | $21.00 |
Edited By is the class horse of the race with strong credentials: a win here over track and distance in Open company last December and a superb second-up record (3-1-1 from 5). Despite a last-start failure, he gets conditions to suit with a slow tempo allowing him to control from the front or just off it. The weight is a concern but he carries class.
Living Free brings solid recent form, having placed in two of his last four including a strong-finishing 3rd over 1200m here. A slow tempo may leave him with too much ground to make up from midfield. Still a clear threat and each-way appeal.
He draws ideally in barrier 2 and should be able to control the slow tempo from the front or just off it.
Badgers Nuts is a proven 1400m specialist with 7 wins from 16 starts at the trip and a track win at Gold Coast in Open company. Worth an each-way ticket.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Living Free | 4 | Nick Heywood | Adam Campton | 58.5kg | $4.20 |
| 2nd | 6 | Ikasara | 2 | Micheal Hellyer | Todd Pollard | 54kg | $4.60 |
| 3rd | 3 | Badgers Nuts | 7 | Adin Thompson | Ms M Brosnan | 57kg | $19.00 |
| 4th | 5 | Zambezi Khan | 6 | Nozi Tomizawa | T D Cowan | 54kg | $18.00 |
| 5th | 8 | Demitasse | 1 | Frederick Larson | Jay Bellamy | 54kg | $18.00 |
| 6th | 1 | Edited By | 3 | Brandon Lerena | Michael Freedman | 60kg | $2.45 |
| 7th | 4 | Capital Asset | 8 | Dale Smith | S Strazzieri | 56kg | $6.00 |
| Scr | 7 | Tribbiani | 5 | Karl Zechner | Allan Chau | 54kg |
Thrash A Bully presents the strongest winning case despite the class rise. The 55kg impost is a significant advantage in a compressed weight scale, and barrier 3 positions her perfectly to settle on-pace where Gold Coast winners come from.
He won here over 1000m on Good 4 in March and has a strong overall Gold Coast record. The main concern is barrier 8, which will require him to work forward to get into the crucial top-3 at the 400m position.
While the perfect record and stable confidence are positives, this is a major step up in both class and distance. The complete lack of 1000m form is a critical concern - both starts were at 800m. The jockey's poor recent form (0 from 20) is another negative. The horse has ability but needs to prove it can handle the distance and class rise.
The synthetic win shows ability, and the 1000m distance suits. Barrier 4 positions him perfectly to settle on-pace where Gold Coast winners come from. However, this is a significant class rise and his turf form is questionable - the last turf run resulted in an 8th placing. This is a roughie play for punters seeking value, banking on improvement from the good draw and progressive profile, but the class rise makes this a risky proposition. Small stakes only.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 12 | Thrash A Bully | 3 | Bella Youngberry | Kurt Goldman | 55kg | $2.90 |
| 2nd | 4 | Sort Cha Mess | 6 | Chloe Lowe | Pat W Webster | 56.5kg | $3.20 |
| 3rd | 8 | Jeans | 8 | Nozi Tomizawa | J P Wallace | 59kg | $12.00 |
| 4th | 2 | Coincide | 9 | Jasper Franklin | B A Gentle | 59.5kg | $6.50 |
| 5th | 11 | Rouge Angel | 7 | Scott Sheargold | Ms K Purdy | 57kg | $26.00 |
| 6th | 7 | Far Beyond | 4 | Courtney Bellamy | Chris Anderson | 57kg | $7.50 |
| 7th | 9 | Southampton Nicco | 10 | Sariah Champkin | Stephanie Sixtus | 56.5kg | $41.00 |
| 8th | 13 | Russian Pins | 12 | Brandon Lerena | S J Morrisey | 56.5kg | $26.00 |
| 9th | 5 | Chayse'n'scotty | 2 | Dale Smith | Ryan Tyrell | 59kg | $19.00 |
| 10th | 1 | He's A Saint | 5 | Yvette Lewis | S J Morrisey | 60kg | $41.00 |
| Scr | 3 | Funky Zebra | 11 | Boris Thornton | Chris & Corey Munce | 59.5kg | |
| Scr | 6 | Copper Star | 1 | Jaden Lloyd | James Moore | 59kg | |
| Scr | 10 | Goose Step | 13 | Jake Capewell | 57kg | ||
| Scr | 14 | Li'l Rex | 13 | David Murphy | 54.5kg |
Count Nicholas drops down to BM65 after a solid 4th in a stronger race. he maps well from the inside gate and owns the best track-and-distance record in the field.
She was disappointing first-up but second-up statistics strongly favour improvement.
Rose Noir comes off a gutsy win at the track and trip, suggesting she has found her niche. The step up in class is a query, but her style suits Gold Coast and the inside gate ensures an economical run.
Eagle's Fire has been knocking on the door with back-to-back thirds in tougher company. The wide draw is a concern but if he can slot into midfield, his finishing burst will be dangerous.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Spirit Of Brodie | 3 | McKenzie Apel | Adam Campton | 61kg | $4.40 |
| 2nd | 2 | Count Nicholas | 1 | Bella Youngberry | Adam Campton | 59.5kg | $4.80 |
| 3rd | 10 | Miss Force | 6 | Frederick Larson | Tony & Maddysen Sears | 58kg | $9.00 |
| 4th | 5 | Rose Noir | 2 | Bailey Wheeler | Renita Beaton | 60.5kg | $13.00 |
| 5th | 7 | I Am Voodoo | 8 | Jaden Lloyd | R H Dart | 60kg | $20.00 |
| 6th | 9 | Exuberance | 4 | Brandon Lerena | T J Gollan | 58kg | $2.50 |
| 7th | 11 | Eagle's Fire | 10 | Nozi Tomizawa | Ms S Batten | 57kg | $9.50 |
| 8th | 12 | Stoinka | 5 | Yvette Lewis | D W Dwane | 57kg | $101.00 |
| 9th | 8 | Wanjina Rose | 7 | Courtney Bellamy | Aiden St Vincent | 56.5kg | $61.00 |
| 10th | 3 | Harbour Gold | 9 | Tiffani Brooker | Taryn Churchill | 61kg | $101.00 |
| Scr | 4 | Jacka Stands Alone | 11 | Chloe Lowe | Pat W Webster | 58kg | |
| Scr | 6 | Certified Copy | 11 | S B Laming | 60kg |
Ran well for 4th here last start and won 3 straight prior at BM60-62 level. Perfectly drawn in barrier 3 to settle handy in the anticipated fast tempo, which suits Gold Coast's positional bias.
Logical threat based on last start victory here, but faces significant class test. The 1-from-1 record at track/distance is compelling, and fitness is assured. However, the sharp rise from Class 2 to BM65 combined with top weight 60.5kg and quick backup presents genuine concerns. Jockey's poor recent form (5%) is also a negative.
Has zero experience at Gold Coast and no wins on Good tracks, preferring Soft conditions. First up from a spell without a proven fresh record at BM65 level, and the removal of gear (Norton bit and tongue tie) raises questions about stable intent. While Gollan is an elite trainer and Youngberry is riding well, the 5% jockey/trainer combination strike rate is concerning. Victorian form at lower grades doesn't justify favouritism in this stronger Queensland BM65.
However, the lack of a declared jockey is a major red flag, and the poor Good track record (0 wins from 3) combined with strong Soft preference makes this the wrong surface. This is a speculative value play only - the speed is there but conditions don't suit.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 6 | Cat Call | 1 | Brandon Lerena | Gary Doughty | 57kg | $4.20 |
| 2nd | 7 | Charlie Tango | 5 | Anthony Allen | D J Bougoure | 57kg | $11.00 |
| 3rd | 3 | Mishani Extreme | 10 | Olivia Kendal | Donna Stanbridge | 59kg | $7.50 |
| 4th | 9 | Swift Duke | 12 | Danny Peisley | Ben Ahrens | 57kg | $9.00 |
| 5th | 10 | Ode To Beauty | 14 | Tiffani Brooker | Ms H Page | 56.5kg | $31.00 |
| 6th | 1 | Seams Logical | 3 | Chloe Lowe | Pat W Webster | 58.5kg | $5.00 |
| 7th | 4 | Zousain's Choice | 11 | Harrison Shaw | William Kropp | 59kg | $6.50 |
| 8th | 2 | American Conquest | 4 | Karl Zechner | Nicholas Beck | 60.5kg | $4.00 |
| 9th | 8 | Solidude | 8 | McKenzie Apel | Allan Chau | 55kg | $91.00 |
| Scr | 5 | Miss Force | 12 | Tony & Maddysen Sears | 58.5kg | ||
| Scr | 11 | Crypto Miss | 13 | R G Lipp | 56kg | ||
| Scr | 12 | Kiwi Raider | 7 | Bella Youngberry | T J Gollan | 53.5kg | |
| Scr | 13 | Estee Emm | 9 | Rob Thorburn | K M Schweida | 52.5kg | |
| Scr | 14 | Steffi Electrica | 2 | A J Edmonds | 54.5kg | ||
| Scr | 15 | Jeans | 6 | Nozi Tomizawa | J P Wallace | 56kg |
Rock Hard Love presents the strongest winning case despite first-up concerns. The significant class drop from BM78 to Class 4 is crucial - this mare won at this level here last preparation and has been competitive in much stronger company. The 119-day break and 0-2-0 first-up record are concerns, but the class edge and second-up pattern outweigh these negatives.
This gelding has won first-up before and drops slightly in class from Class 5. The Thornton/horse combination shows promise (50% strike rate from small sample). However, significant concerns exist: the 9-length defeat last start at this track, 140-day spell, and poor overall jockey form (5%). Maps reasonably from barrier 7 for Gold Coast's positional bias.
Golden Copper presents a classic speed-and-weight scenario but faces a significant class test. The jump from Class 3 to Class 4 is substantial, and this mare has never faced this level.
Galpin presents as the most likely winner based on current trajectory and class positioning. Two wins from her last three starts, including a dominant Doomben Class 3 victory, demonstrate she's racing in career-best form. Barrier 3 is ideal for Gold Coast's prominent-runner bias, allowing her to settle midfield with scope to be positioned top-three at the critical 400m mark. Her 2-1-3 record on Good tracks confirms surface suitability. The main concern is the absence of a listed jockey and lack of Gold Coast experience, but her form superiority and class advantage outweigh these negatives.
Winchman is the classic each-way value proposition - a consistent placegetter with strong track affinity but questionable winning ability. The gelding won at this track last start and boasts a 60% place rate with 1-3-1 Gold Coast record.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Stanislaus | 7 | Boris Thornton | Declan Maher | 59.5kg | $8.00 |
| 2nd | 4 | Winchman | 6 | Danny Peisley | P L Shailer | 59.5kg | $5.00 |
| 3rd | 6 | Tribbiani | 4 | Allan Chau | 58.5kg | $5.50 | |
| 4th | 9 | Destinys Summit | 10 | Micheal Hellyer | B A Gentle | 55.5kg | $31.00 |
| 5th | 2 | Rock Hard Love | 8 | Brandon Lerena | Gary Doughty | 60kg | $3.30 |
| 6th | 11 | Ma's Epic | 9 | Scott Sheargold | Leanne McCormick | 54kg | $31.00 |
| 7th | 12 | Constant Cafe | 2 | Frederick Larson | Ms P Barron | 54kg | $41.00 |
| 8th | 8 | Araletta | 5 | Aidan Keeley | Matthew Hoysted | 55.5kg | $8.00 |
| 9th | 10 | Golden Copper | 1 | Courtney Bellamy | Aiden St Vincent | 53.5kg | $5.00 |
| Scr | 1 | Lovewillcomelater | 11 | Stephen & Jordan Lee | 60kg | ||
| Scr | 5 | Galpin | 3 | Phil Bobic | 58.5kg | ||
| Scr | 7 | Certified Copy | 8 | S B Laming | 57kg | ||
| Scr | 13 | Vetoed | 12 | Noriyuki Masuda | D W Dwane | 54kg |
Before the races, not after
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