Punt like a Pro, without the know!
New Zealand · Wednesday 15 July 2026
Our top pick won 2 of 7 races at Avondale. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
top pick wonanother tip wonno tip won
Heavenly Lady's last-start placing at Tauranga over this same distance and identical Heavy 8 conditions is the strongest form reference in this maiden field. The rapid back-up suggests the stable sees her as fit and ready, and the barrier draw supports a forward, within-range position by the 400m - the key winning profile at Avondale on heavy ground.
The step to 2100m on Heavy is untested.
Lady Charlton has shown more tangible placing form than most in this field, with a recent close-up 3rd on Soft ground.
Zee Heights offers value given her vast experience on heavy tracks and ideal inside barrier, both known positives at Avondale. While she remains winless, her past hurdle placings show genuine determination, and dropping back to a flat maiden with a good draw could see her play a forward role, making her overpriced relative to her wet-track proficiency.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4 | Sidetrack | 6 | Monique Dey | Ms C Mckee | 68.5kg | $13.70 |
| 2nd | 6 | Heavenly Lady | 2 | Scotty Macnab | S & E Clotworthy | 66.5kg | $3.30 |
| 3rd | 8 | So Like Zee | 3 | S N Rees | 66.5kg | $5.90 | |
| 4th | 1 | Teams | 5 | Skye du Plessis | D R Wiles | 68.5kg | $9.10 |
| 5th | 5 | Zee Heights | 1 | Alexandra Reed | G A & D G Rogerson & Clint Isdale | 68.5kg | $9.40 |
| 6th | 7 | Lady Charlton | 4 | Michelle Northcott | P & J Brosnan | 66.5kg | $10.30 |
| 7th | 3 | Sacred Sin | 7 | A E Taiaroa | N P Bishara | 68.5kg | $2.90 |
| Scr | 2 | Janka | 4 | Nick Smith | Shelley Wright | 68.5kg |
Gin And Bare It has the most reliable and in-form profile in the race - placed in all 3 starts with a recent heavy-track win.
Portland is a highly consistent performer with a strong distance record and favourable barrier, but the first-up assignment after a lengthy spell and modest heavy-track win record introduce some risk. Still rates as a leading contender given her overall reliability and positioning advantage.
Elite Choice has shown a genuine spark with a heavy-track maiden win last start and carries a feathery weight suited to testing ground. The overall sample is thin and inconsistent, but the upward trajectory and wet-track aptitude make her a credible third pick in an open-looking Open race.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Gin And Bare It | 4 | Hayley Hassman | Ms K Fawcett | 54.5kg | $1.60 |
| 2nd | 4 | She''s A Boss | 6 | Craig Grylls | W Hillis & R Cole | 56.5kg | $6.50 |
| 3rd | 2 | Elite Choice | 2 | Tom Wigram | Ms J K Mahoney | 52.5kg | $11.00 |
| 4th | 5 | Confectionist | 3 | Michael Mc Nab | S B Marsh | 55.5kg | $5.60 |
| 5th | 6 | Miss Kipling | 5 | A Lawson-Carroll | M & K Murdoch | 55.5kg | $19.80 |
| 6th | 1 | Portland | 1 | Jack Taplin | S B Marsh | 55.5kg | $8.30 |
Capote presents the most reliable form profile in this maiden field, with three placings from his last seven starts and solid form on both Heavy and Soft going. Barrier 1 suits the Avondale bias toward handy runners.
Batu offers third-leg value through connections rather than raw form — Craig Grylls' strong recent strike rate and course experience add weight to an otherwise modest formline. With workable barrier and moderate wet-track exposure, Batu rounds out the picture as a each-way threat in a genuinely open maiden.
Barrier 5 is workable, and with no evidence against, this represents an intriguing our outsider in a race lacking standout proven types.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Capote | 1 | Samantha Collett | B S Gillovic | 58.5kg | $1.90 |
| 2nd | 5 | Hit The Gas | 2 | Sam McNab | S D Cole | 56.5kg | $23.20 |
| 3rd | 6 | Midnight Flair | 7 | Tom Wigram | Ms J K Mahoney | 54.5kg | $24.10 |
| 4th | 3 | Batu | 6 | Craig Grylls | Tayla Sherwood | 58.5kg | $12.50 |
| 5th | 10 | Must Bee | 4 | S & E Clotworthy | 56.5kg | $8.40 | |
| 6th | 7 | Cav''s Boy | 9 | Erin M Leighton | J Hatton | 58.5kg | $28.50 |
| 7th | 2 | Sombr | 8 | George Rooke | Ms L Brennan | 58.5kg | $3.90 |
| 8th | 11 | Tainted Love | 3 | Jack Taplin | Ms D Jeffcoat | 54.5kg | $28.30 |
| 9th | 4 | Jack High | 5 | Hayley Hassman | Josh King & Maija Vance | 56.5kg | $22.80 |
| 10th | 9 | Perfectly Set | 10 | Sienna Brown | S T Wenn | 53.5kg | $46.20 |
| Scr | 8 | President Fir | 5 | Masahiro Hashizume | Ms D Logan | 58.5kg |
Black Diamond was narrowly beaten in a Heavy 9 maiden last start and arrives with the best jockey/trainer combination in the race (Grylls/Forsman). Her only run shows she handles rain-affected ground and fights on.
Golden Point has been knocking on the door with a placing last start on Heavy ground and again holds solid form claims. The barrier 4 draw suits the described track bias favouring handy runners, and his previous Avondale experience (4th at this track on Heavy) adds context. A key form threat to the top pick.
Forester has run at Avondale on Heavy ground previously, finishing 4th just 2 lengths from the winner, and has shown placing form at this class level. The outside barrier (10) is a slight negative given the track's preference for handy, inside-to-midfield runners, but the profile of consistent placings and course experience keeps him in contention.
Donita Rose is unproven at the winning post but has been racing honestly without ever being far off the pace over similar distances. The booking of in-form rider Jack Taplin, who is 20% at today's track, adds confidence, and the workable barrier draw suits the described positional bias.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Golden Point | 4 | A Lawson-Carroll | Ms A S Johnson | 57.5kg | $4.00 |
| 2nd | 1 | Forester | 10 | George Rooke | Ms A S Johnson | 57.5kg | $4.40 |
| 3rd | 7 | Black Diamond | 11 | Craig Grylls | Andrew Forsman | 55.5kg | $3.20 |
| 4th | 5 | Swey Fortune | 8 | Joe Doyle | S D Cole | 57.5kg | $37.50 |
| 5th | 3 | Dragonstone | 1 | Tom Wigram | Ms D Logan | 53.5kg | $6.10 |
| 6th | 13 | Pallenis | 6 | Samantha Collett | T W Cole | 55.5kg | $18.50 |
| 7th | 4 | Royal Canter | 9 | Masahiro Hashizume | L O''sullivan & A Scott | 57.5kg | $10.10 |
| 8th | 10 | Donita Rose | 7 | Jack Taplin | S B Marsh | 53.5kg | $15.70 |
| Scr | 6 | The Tumbling Paddy | 3 | M L Rogers | 57.5kg | ||
| Scr | 8 | Pact | 5 | Sam McNab | Ms D Logan | 53.5kg | |
| Scr | 9 | Miss Kipling | 3 | M & K Murdoch | 55.5kg | ||
| Scr | 11 | Must Bee | 2 | Erin M Leighton | S & E Clotworthy | 55.5kg | |
| Scr | 12 | Bellavinsky | 12 | Jasmine Fawcett | Emma Faber | 55.5kg |
Chasing Warrior presents the most complete case in this Restricted 60: proven Avondale Heavy-track winner at 1400m, in career-best form with alternating placings, dropping in class, and drawn conveniently in barrier 3. With no genuine leader in the race and a slow-tempo scenario, this horse's tactical speed and wet-track proficiency give it the clearest path to control a forward position and sustain through the line.
Horrie boasts one of the strongest genuine heavy-track profiles in the race, with a win and four minor placings from 8 heavy-track starts. Recent runs have been slightly plain but the horse remains competitive with a good recent trial of fitness. Barrier 7 is workable and the horse has shown it can sit forward and sustain, fitting the ideal Avondale heavy-track winning profile.
Chicago Jack arrives in career-consistent form at the right class level, with past Heavy-track success and a strong runner-up effort last prep at Ellerslie in similar Restricted grade. The wide barrier of 11 is a slight query given Avondale's preference for forward position, but the horse's proven wet-track ability and class suitability make him a solid each-way threat in an open race.
Her last run was underwhelming, but with barrier context and wet conditions again prevailing, she represents an overlay opportunity if she can rediscover her maiden-winning form.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Chicago Jack | 11 | George Rooke | S D Cole | 59.5kg | $12.70 |
| 2nd | 7 | Zenzero Girl | 1 | Hyeontaek Oh | G & T Shaw | 54kg | $5.80 |
| 3rd | 5 | Horrie | 7 | Elen Nicholas | M & K Murdoch | 59kg | $14.20 |
| 4th | 2 | Chasing Warrior | 3 | Jack Taplin | B Wallace & G Cooksley | 57.5kg | $3.40 |
| 5th | 13 | Koro''s Princess | 2 | Jasmine Fawcett | G K Opie | 54kg | $21.70 |
| 6th | 6 | So Be It | 8 | Hayley Hassman | S N Rees | 56kg | $16.80 |
| 7th | 10 | Stage Three | 5 | Courtney Barnes | A J Morley | 57kg | $21.20 |
| 8th | 1 | Interplanetary | 4 | Tom Wigram | S & E Clotworthy | 56kg | $15.90 |
| 9th | 9 | Atlanta Gold | 9 | Masahiro Hashizume | A J Morley | 57.5kg | $3.40 |
| 10th | 8 | Zeffert | 6 | Erin M Leighton | P & J Brosnan | 58kg | $46.10 |
| 11th | 11 | Aramaki | 10 | Craig Grylls | S L Crawford | 56.5kg | $24.20 |
| Scr | 4 | Timetoplaythegame | 5 | Joe Doyle | D G Greene | 59.5kg | |
| Scr | 12 | Capote | 2 | B S Gillovic | 56kg |
Colgate presents the strongest form case in this maiden - his only start was a narrow 2nd at this exact distance on a similarly Heavy track, showing both class suitability and wet-ground competence that none of his rivals can match as convincingly. Wide barrier is a mild concern but overridden by the strength of the form claim.
Chicflix is the most experienced wet-tracker in the race with a strong Heavy record and a placing at today's track over a similar journey. Consistent minor-placegetter who could easily hit the frame again, though her inability to win in 29 attempts caps upside.
Sneaky Cyclone offers the most raceday-tested profile against these conditions with 5 runs on Heavy ground and a minor placing to show for it. Consistency without brilliance, but a workable barrier and manageable class puts him in the finish another day. Considered without the ceiling of the top two picks.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 8 | Classic Grace | 11 | Sam McNab | B H King | 54.5kg | $10.90 |
| 2nd | 2 | Sneaky Cyclone | 8 | Michael Mc Nab | D J Miller | 58.5kg | $3.50 |
| 3rd | 7 | Chicflix | 6 | Joe Doyle | P P Mirabelli | 56.5kg | $28.40 |
| 4th | 9 | Queen Sansa | 1 | Jasmine Fawcett | Emma Faber | 56.5kg | $7.20 |
| 5th | 13 | Seduire | 9 | Hayley Hassman | Sophia Nolan & Hanna Orting | 54.5kg | $10.80 |
| 6th | 4 | Rebel Rouser | 7 | George Rooke | S D Cole | 58.5kg | $20.00 |
| 7th | 1 | Colgate | 12 | Masahiro Hashizume | S & E Clotworthy | 58.5kg | $6.60 |
| 8th | 5 | Sebastiano | 4 | Tom Wigram | Ms D Logan | 54.5kg | $19.40 |
| 9th | 6 | The Tumbling Paddy | 5 | Erin M Leighton | M L Rogers | 58.5kg | $61.20 |
| 10th | 3 | Just Go Boom | 2 | Samantha Collett | B S Gillovic | 58.5kg | $4.80 |
| 11th | 14 | Septima | 15 | Craig Grylls | Andrew Forsman | 56.5kg | $28.50 |
| 12th | 15 | Woman Of Mine | 3 | A Lawson-Carroll | Ms D Logan | 56.5kg | $31.30 |
| Scr | 10 | So Like Zee | 10 | Hyeontaek Oh | S N Rees | 52.5kg | |
| Scr | 11 | Local Mischief | 14 | Elen Nicholas | G J Old | 56.5kg | |
| Scr | 12 | Miss Margot | 13 | Jack Taplin | Ms D Logan | 54.5kg |
Elle Mcfab presents the most complete profile for this Heavy 8 test at Avondale - strong wet-track record, consistent recent placings, and fitness from a solid recent run.
Morning Cocoa is the model of heavy-track reliability with 10 placings across her career on this surface.
Empressive is lightly-raced but has shown she loves the heavy ground with a strong maiden win in similar conditions.
Sacred Combatant offers value given his outstanding heavy-track record and prior Avondale win in near-identical conditions.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 9 | Final Reason | 1 | Hayley Hassman | R P Liefting | 54.5kg | $11.90 |
| 2nd | 6 | Sacred Combatant | 7 | Sam McNab | B Wallace & G Cooksley | 55.5kg | $3.50 |
| 3rd | 2 | Ocean Road | 5 | Jasmine Fawcett | Ms P Wilkinson | 59kg | $8.50 |
| 4th | 7 | Morning Cocoa | 12 | George Rooke | Andrew Forsman | 57kg | $10.20 |
| 5th | 11 | Opera Belle | 14 | Tom Wigram | Ms K A Hoskin | 52.5kg | $29.60 |
| 6th | 8 | Empressive | 6 | Samantha Collett | B H King | 56.5kg | $15.10 |
| 7th | 3 | Los Salsero | 10 | Jack Taplin | S B Marsh | 56.5kg | $30.50 |
| 8th | 10 | Go Joanna | 16 | Erin M Leighton | N P Bishara | 56.5kg | $6.30 |
| 9th | 5 | Elle Mcfab | 9 | Masahiro Hashizume | D G Greene | 57.5kg | $6.60 |
| 10th | 12 | Berry Brown | 8 | Joe Doyle | Andrew Forsman | 56kg | $15.50 |
| 11th | 16 | Polamalu | 15 | Bridget Grylls | Ms C Pomare | 54kg | $89.70 |
| 12th | 14 | Highly Anticipated | 4 | S L Cameron | 54.5kg | $18.70 | |
| 13th | 13 | Izola | 2 | Michael Mc Nab | Ms K A Hoskin | 55kg | $38.80 |
| 14th | 15 | Verdi''s Opera | 3 | Sienna Brown | Ms D Waddell | 51kg | $98.10 |
| Scr | 1 | The Nomad | 13 | P & J Brosnan | 60kg | ||
| Scr | 4 | Bertie Wooster | 9 | A Lawson-Carroll | C J Wood | 58kg | |
| Scr | 17 | So Be It | 11 | S N Rees | 55.5kg |
Before the races, not after
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