Cairns tips and results

Our price $4.60 · SP $2.70 · Sean Cormack

Sean Cormack is a Cairns track specialist and she has been racing consistently with placings in three of her last four. Her fourth over this C&D on Soft 7 reads well and barrier 5 should let her hold a forward position. Winless strike rate and the new ear muffs are the main concerns, making her a place option.

Our price $6.00 · SP $4.80 · Lacey Morrison

Very Good has the best win strike rate in the field and is still lightly raced and improving. She won her only soft-track start, ran third in Open company at Townsville, and was far from disgraced when fifth last start. Lacey Morrison is a track specialist and has two wins from seven rides on this mare. The wide barrier is a concern but her early speed should allow her to slot into a forward position.

Our price $8.00 · SP $12.00 · Krysten Swaffer

Our Addiction is a consistent veteran who has placed three times in his last five starts, including a 3rd in BM55 grade. He has twice placed from six starts over the Cairns 950m and gets a nice barrier with 56.5kg. The knock is that he has yet to win at this track/trip and his soft-track record is modest.

Our price $5.00 · SP $4.60 · Adam Sewell

He drops to Class 1, gets a suitable inside barrier and should be fitter third-up. The main risks are his lack of a win at the trip and limited soft-track evidence.

Our price $10.00 · SP $13.00 · Krysten Swaffer

Desarae Doll arrives off a controlled win at Innisfail and has very strong course-and-distance credentials, having placed in both attempts over 1250m at Cairns, including a soft-track second in Open company. She handles rain-affected ground well and is drawn to settle just off the speed.

Our price $12.00 · SP $11.00 · Masayuki Abe

Drawn in barrier 3, she maps to hold a forward position — the key profile at Cairns on soft ground.

Our price $6.00 · SP $3.70 · Tasha Chambers

Goodnight Romeo is a clear place/win chance off the back of a tough last-start victory in similar grade. His 1400m record is strong and he has enough soft-track form to handle the conditions, but he is yet to race at Cairns and changes to a less established rider. He should settle close enough to be competitive but is a touch behind the top two on overall profile.

Our price $9.00 · SP $16.00 · Mitch Goring

He has already won over this track and trip on a soft surface, and drops to 54kg with first-time blinkers that could produce improvement.

Our price $6.50 · SP $10.00 · Ivo Fry

He was third behind Miss Moneypenny in the key Townsville form race and has a much stronger wet-track record than most of these. He has already won at Cairns and placed there, which is important on a position-driven Soft surface. The wide draw is a slight concern, but middle barriers have been favoured in recent Cairns Soft data and he has enough tactical speed to hold a forward spot.

Our price $4.50 · SP $5.00 · Peta Edwards

Mind Over Matter is the clear next best. He has won five of ten and was strong in the same Townsville Open form reference, finishing level with Blue Stratum while 3kg better off. The inside barrier and low weight give him every chance to settle in the first half. Lack of Cairns/950 experience is the only serious query, but his soft-track strike rate and upward profile outweigh that.

Our price $5.50 · SP $4.60 · Ben Kennedy

Almighty Jab is the proven C&D specialist of the top three. His 3-from-4 Cairns 950m record, including a Soft 5 win, makes him a serious threat. Barrier 6 and a midfield map suit Cairns, though the jockey's poor track record keeps him slightly behind the top two.

Our price $10.00 · SP $18.00 · Lacey Morrison

Impardoo is the clear value runner. His pre-spell form was outstanding, with five wins from six, and his soft-track record is the best in the field.

Our price $4.80 · SP $7.50 · Sean Cormack

Canberra Legend maps to lead or sit on pace, which is a key advantage on Cairns Soft where position before the bend decides races. He drops from Open class to BM74 and has shown he can hold his own in stronger company over 1800-2200m. The query is 60kg and a modest 2-from-37 strike rate, so he rates second rather than top choice.

Our price $6.20 · SP $5.50 · Nathan Thomas

He has placed at 1900m before and arrives fit off a 4-day back-up. Gear changes and Nathan Thomas' 40% stable strike rate add confidence.

Our price $12.00 · SP $21.00 · Ivo Fry

Amalfi Amore is the value runner. He drops sharply from Open class and has the staying credentials, including a 4th in a 2100m BM70 on Soft7 and wins at 1800-2000m on rain-affected ground. The 54kg weight and barrier 3 suit the Cairns map.

Our price $6.00 · SP $16.00 · Nathan Thomas

Lazenby is a Cairns 1250m specialist with a 2-1-0 record over this exact course and distance, and two wins from two Soft-track starts. He beat BM55 company here last start on a Soft 7, and while the step up to BM65 is a query, he drops to 57.5kg and draws barrier 3. On a position-driven Cairns surface, he maps well and should be ridden close enough to strike. Arctic Bear is respected on class but his backmarker profile and winless Cairns record are concerns.

Our price $7.00 · SP $14.00 · Wanderson D'Avila

Irresistible Force is a proven Cairns performer with three course wins and a strong Soft-track profile (4 wins from 10). He was a solid 2nd at Innisfail in BM65 company last start and has the tactical speed to hold a forward position from barrier 9. His overall win rate is low but his consistency around this circuit and on wet ground gives him a strong each-way chance behind Lazenby.

Our price $8.00 · SP $8.00 · Ben Kennedy

Kirikan is the map horse of the race. From barrier 1 he should settle midfield and be within striking range at the 400m, which is the winning profile at Cairns on Soft ground. He has placed four times from six Cairns starts, including three thirds over 1250m, and his recent form is excellent. The knock is his poor conversion rate - 2 wins from 40 starts and no Soft-track win - so he rates as a strong place chance rather than a win selection.