Randwick tips and results

Our price $7.50 · SP $7.00 · Siena Grima

Eleven starts at 1200m have yielded three wins and three further placings, and 55kg from gate one is a genuine weight-and-map edge.

Our price $8.50 · SP $9.50 · Rachel King

Today she drops to 55kg and maps to settle midfield from barrier 10 - precisely the position producing a 20% win rate here while the five genuine leaders fight out a very fast tempo.

Our price $8.00 · SP $12.00 · Tim Clark

He steps back to Class 2 level, gets the 100m rise in trip that his finishing pattern wants, and draws barrier 5 which maps him top three at the 400m into a very fast tempo.

Our price $10.00 · SP $26.00 · Alysha Collett

Manoora is the clearest overlay in the race. Her only soft-track start produced a win. Six career starts fits the lightly-raced, progressive profile that wins here on Soft. Each-way value with a strong place claim.

Our price $6.00 · SP $6.50 · Tim Clark

Three of his career wins have come on Soft going and he stays the trip well. Solid each-way rather than a win proposition.

Our price $8.50 · SP $21.00 · Kerrin Mc Evoy

The overlay of the race. McEvoy is riding in career-best recent touch and the Freedman combination clicks at 25%.

Our price $6.00 · SP $7.00 · Tommy Berry

The wet-track specialist of the race with five wins from nine soft-track starts, drawn in the ideal gate one. A slow tempo and a true rail let him take the shortest route.

Our price $9.00 · SP $14.00 · Tyler Schiller

The progressive type in a field of exposed performers. Two wins and two placings from his last four, all achieved with rain in the ground, and he gets in on the minimum 55.0kg for a stable that wins these.

Our price $11.00 · SP $26.00 · Rachel King

A clear overlay on wet-track credentials. Rain has returned 25.4mm in seven days, the surface now suits, she has genuine early speed from barrier 7, and 57.0kg is well within range.

Our price $3.60 · SP $6.00 · Dylan Gibbons

The most complete form case in the race. Record on soft is 6 starts for 5 wins, he has won his last two in Listed grade, and his only Randwick run at this track on Soft 7 produced a win under 59.5kg. Randwick soft winners are typically lightly raced, in-form and on-pace types - he ticks every box at 13 starts with a 54% win strike. The class rise is real but he beat a similar profile of rival in June, and 55kg is a genuine let-up on his recent weights. Gibbons rejoining is a clear intent signal.

Our price $11.00 · SP $26.00 · Kerrin Mc Evoy

His soft record is 10 starts for 3 wins and he places at better than one start in two. Last start over 1800m was too sharp for him and the return to 2000m on a rain-affected surface is his optimal setup. Gate 10 and a serial-placegetter profile keep him honest, but the each-way value here is clear.

Our price $7.00 · SP $10.00 · Dylan Gibbons

A progressive four-year-old mare on a genuine upward curve - winner of her past start at Rosehill on a Soft 5 and 1-2-1 in her past three. Just six career starts, 53kg, barrier 1 and a soft-track record of 3 starts for 2 wins tick every box the Randwick wet profile asks for, and she maps to be top three at the 400m.

Our price $11.00 · SP $17.00 · Adam Hyeronimus

Catch The Glory has won a Group 3 on Soft 6 and another on Heavy 8, holds the best wet record in the race (6 soft starts for 3 wins and a second), and is a bona fide fresh horse with 4 first-up starts for 3 wins - and she resumes today. She is distance-proven with 10 starts at 1100m for six top-three finishes and has won at this track and distance.

Our price $3.80 · SP $6.00 · Tim Clark

The most complete form case in a race full of fresh, lightly raced fillies. Agrarian Girl won first-up at Randwick in Listed grade, then ran second in a Group 2 over today's exact course and distance - the strongest black-type reference here. Barrier 7 maps her handy-to-midfield, exactly the profile Randwick soft rewards. Wet ground is unproven but the track data treats wet form as a tie-breaker, not a filter.

Our price $4.50 · SP $3.80 · Ben E Thompson

Genuine Group 2 winning form over this course and distance and a striking 3 wins from 4 starts. The reservations are the 131-day break with an unproductive first-up record, and 57kg on a compressed scale. Barrier 2 keeps her close enough to be top three at the 400m, which the Randwick soft data identifies as the dominant positional prior. A clear top-three chance rather than the anchor.

Our price $9.00 · SP $13.00 · Chad Schofield

The classic overlay. All four career starts have been at Randwick for two placings, and she has placed first-up.

Our price $3.40 · SP $5.50 · Tommy Berry

The class horse of the race on wet-track evidence. Three soft-track starts have produced two wins. Only five career starts, dropping to Group 3 with 56.5kg and Berry back aboard. The 124-day break and untried first-up record are genuine risks, but proven black-type wet form at track and distance outweighs them.

Our price $8.00 · SP $4.80 · Kerrin Mc Evoy

Track specialist with a Group 2 win and a Listed win at Randwick and a Group 3 second here on Soft 5 in February. Only 13 starts, so still lightly raced by the profile Randwick soft rewards. The tongue tie coming off is a positive tinker and barrier 2 with McEvoy should have him top three at the 400m in a slow-run race. Poor Group 1 finishes and a 103-day break temper confidence, but at Group 3 level with the fence he is well placed.

Our price $12.00 · SP $19.00 · Kerrin Mc Evoy

The overlay of the race. She is 2 from 2 at 1400m including a Group 1 win at Randwick over the trip, and her first-up record of 5 starts for 2 wins, a second and two thirds means the 131-day break is not a concern. Barrier 2 and an in-form McEvoy map her into the handy position Randwick's Soft surface rewards.

Our price $3.80 · SP $3.80 · Nash Rawiller

The most complete profile in the race. He fits Randwick's Soft winner profile precisely - lightly raced, high career strike, placed last start, and maps to be top three at the 400m from a handy settle. The 60.5kg is the only real query; on ability and wet-track evidence he rates clearly the most likely winner.

Our price $8.00 · SP $21.00 · Chad Schofield

The forgotten winner. His soft record of 9 starts for 2 wins, 2 seconds and 2 thirds covers today's conditions, barrier 7 gives a perfect midfield map, and Schofield stays aboard.

Our price $5.50 · SP $5.00 · Kerrin Mc Evoy

The sharpest finisher in the race. His soft record of 3 starts for 2 wins and 1 second is the best wet profile among the leading chances, he is second-up where his record is 2 starts for 1 win, and McEvoy is riding at 30%. Barrier 11 and a likely moderate tempo are the checks that keep him third rather than first.

Our price $7.00 · SP $21.00 · Reece Jones