Toowoomba tips and results

Our price $4.50 · SP $10.00 · Harrison Shaw

Thunder Award is the horse the map and the track profile point straight at. He won over this precise 1300m Toowoomba trip on a Good 4 only a fortnight ago, and his Toowoomba record is 2 starts for 2 wins, including a 1200m win here under 61kg. Clifford Park rewards runners who are top-three at the 400m, and he is one of the few genuine forward types engaged. Barrier 12 and 61.5kg are real obstacles, but he has overcome weight here before and the winning formline is fresher and more relevant than any rival's.

Our price $4.00 · SP $2.20 · Brandon Lerena

Better Sweet is a progressive, lightly raced mare with a metropolitan-class placing to her name, 55kg and a good gate. Against that, she is yet to win at 1000m from three attempts, rises in grade from Class 1, maps midfield rather than on-pace, and her second up sample is a single start.

Our price $8.00 · SP $18.00 · Leslie Tilley

The clear overlay of the race. A significant gear change and a 7-day back-up point to intent. Each-way value.

Our price $5.50 · SP $7.50 · Rob Thorburn

Drops sharply out of Bench. The jockey change and 60kg keep him just behind the top pick rather than level with it.

Our price $6.50 · SP $4.40 · Harrison Shaw

He can take the handy position that wins races here.

Our price $8.00 · SP $14.00 · Brandon Lerena

A genuine overlay on raw ability. Brandon Lerena is riding at 25% strike from his last 20. Each-way value rather than a win proposition.

Our price $3.00 · SP $2.45 · Archie Mc Colm

The most professional runner in a weak maiden. From barrier 5 with only 52.5kg after Mc Colm's claim, she should be handy or leading at the 400m - the single most durable winning trait at Clifford Park. Thirteen starts without a win is the obvious knock, but she is placed at the distance and meets a field where nobody has won a race.

Our price $6.50 · SP $17.00 · Brandon Lerena

The overlay of the race. Brandon Lerena is in the best form of any rider engaged with five wins from his last twenty. From gate nine she can take a forward spot in a moderate-tempo race.

Our price $6.00 · SP $4.40 · Sariah Champkin

Vega Sicilia is the value angle. Today he gets in on 53.5kg with the claim - a 6.5kg turnaround - from a handy barrier 2.

Our price $5.00 · SP $4.20 · Micheal Hellyer

Honest, consistent and drawn to get every chance from gate 2, which matters in a race with only one genuine leader and a likely slow tempo. His third at this track over 1890m under 60kg reads well and he gets 1.5kg relief today. Solid placing prospect rather than a value win play.

Our price $10.00 · SP $20.00 · Stacey Callow

Each-way play only.