Morphettville Parks tips and results

Our price $5.00 · SP $5.00 · Caitlyn Munro

The natural on-pace alternative and the one runner turning the tables on the topweight at the weights. Gate 1 with 53kg in a race with just one genuine leader means she should be handy at the 400m, the strongest positional signal at this circuit. The jockey booking is the obvious knock and the reason she is not the top pick.

Our price $6.50 · SP $15.00 · Dominic Tourneur

The value angle. Having been thrown into Listed grade at Flemington and Morphettville earlier in the prep, this is a genuine drop in company relative to the opposition she has faced.

Our price $4.60 · SP $10.00 · Stacey Metcalfe

The most reliable form line in a weak maiden.

Our price $7.00 · SP $5.00 · Will Price

The most genuinely progressive runner in the race. Barrier 6 and 54kg let her sit handy in what maps as a slow tempo.

Our price $6.50 · SP $18.00 · Brooke King

Morphettville Parks maidens reward exactly this map profile with an 18% on-pace edge.

Our price $7.00 · SP $16.00 · Todd Pannell

The most reliable place proposition in the field. Aquaholic has hit the top three in five of his last ten and was beaten just half a length in each of his last two before a close third on Heavy 10. He returns to a kinder Soft 6 and steps into metropolitan grade off a genuine country winter campaign. The concerns are a modest strike rate, an unproven record at 1579m and a jockey out of form, which caps him at a place rather than a win prospect.

Our price $11.00 · SP $21.00 · Kayla Crowther

Hidden Bounty has the highest career win rate in the field at 25%, wins on rain-affected ground (5:2-0-0 soft, 3:1-0-2 heavy) and gets 4kg relief from the 61kg she humped into third at Mt Gambier last start. Crowther, who has won twice on her, retains.

Our price $8.50 · SP $14.00 · Jason Holder

Extra Hot is the most reliable placegetter in the field with 6 course-and-distance starts producing a second and four thirds, including a solid third here over 1400m on Soft 6 just three weeks back. Her soft record of 13 starts for 3 wins and 4 placings is the strongest wet profile engaged. The negatives are real - an exposed 6YO carrying 58.5kg from gate 9 who needs luck from back in the field on a track where backmarkers win only 7%. She keeps finding the frame though, and rates a solid place proposition.

Our price $8.00 · SP $17.00 · Ben Price

Last start over an inadequate 1250m she was only a length and a half away in stronger tempo terms.

Our price $4.20 · SP $4.60 · Noel Callow

Polunin is the progressive type this track rewards. The 1400m looks a natural progression rather than a query given he was strong to the line each time, and the winkers should help him settle. From barrier 7 with 56.5kg he maps to be handy at the 400m, which is worth three to four times the win chance at Morphettville Parks.

Our price $7.00 · SP $16.00 · Todd Pannell

72 over this course and distance. He drops back to a trip that suits after two sprint runs and meets an easier field than he has been tackling in Victoria. The negatives are real: gate 11 in a fast-run race, no win on soft ground in five attempts, and a modest strike rate for a horse that places far more often than he wins.

Our price $4.20 · SP $6.00 · S H Sit

Bristler has contested 18 races over this exact course and distance for 3 wins, 3 placings second and 1 third, and won a BM70 here in March. He has been racing in BM76/78 company and drops back sharply in grade with a featherweight after the claim. Maps handy, which is the winning shape at Morphettville Parks.

Our price $6.50 · SP $21.00 · Dylan Caboche

The progressive runner of the race with 3 wins from just 8 starts. Barrier 1 gives her a cheap run behind the speed at a track where being top three at the 400m is worth three to four times the win chance. Country-to-metro rise and limited wet form are the queries, but a drying surface helps.

Our price $4.50 · SP $4.00 · Alysha Warren

Barrier 3 maps him handy.

Our price $6.50 · SP $10.00 · Will Price

Almairac brings the best raw class and the best distance record in the race — 7:1-2-1 around 2000m including a second in a Caulfield Bench.78 on Soft 7. The queries are real: 36 days between runs sits outside the freshness window this track rewards, and gate 12 asks for a wider passage. Class and trip suitability keep him firmly in the placings equation.

Our price $8.00 · SP $19.00 · Harry Grace

The most literal form line in the race: Rikki Rikkardo won over 1966m at Morphettville Parks on Soft 7 on 1 August, the exact track, trip and going combination she meets today, and her track-and-distance record reads 2:1-0-0.

Our price $3.30 · SP $3.40 · Rochelle Milnes

Cicala is the classiest, most in-form runner engaged and every one of her 8 starts has been on rain-affected ground - 3 wins from 7 on Soft plus a Listed win on Heavy. The 1400m is untried and that is the genuine risk, but she is lightly raced, well weighted at 57kg, sectionally sharp and ridden by a jockey with a 50% record on her. She rates the most likely winner.

Our price $5.00 · SP $9.50 · Rose Hammond

The most credible combination of proven track-and-distance form and a genuine class drop. Bouncing Beyond has won over this exact 1250m circuit at Morphettville Parks, ran third in a Bench. 80 on Heavy going at Morphettville and was beaten under two lengths in a Bench. 84 here on Heavy 8. Soft 6 is well within his range.

Our price $6.50 · SP $14.00 · Will Price

Consistent and thoroughly track-suited, with two placings from three attempts at Morphettville Parks over this exact 1250m trip and a two-from-three record on Soft going.

Our price $6.00 · SP $10.00 · Jacob Opperman