Happy Valley tips and results

Our price $4.00 · SP $5.60 · Luke Ferraris

Runjeet's form has quietly turned the corner: his last two Class 5 runs were both better than the raw finishing positions suggest, and the last one was the strongest recent effort in this field. He drops to 56kg, draws the inside, and races in the handy-midfield slot that wins at the Valley. With eight genuine leaders likely to overdo it, he can pounce late. The maiden tag is the risk, but he has never had a set-up this favourable.

Our price $7.00 · SP $9.40 · Zac Purton

Always My Folks has the class to win this - he did exactly that in April and has run to a similar level in his two runs since under bigger weights. The problem is the outside gate: at the Valley over 1000m he either burns fuel crossing or gets caught wide, and with a fast tempo predicted that could be costly. Purton is the best rider to solve it, and a Class 5 field is weak enough that his ability can carry him into the placings even from there.

Our price $4.50 · SP $3.70 · Andrea Atzeni

But he is a confirmed bridesmaid with one win in 27 and none on good turf, and barrier 10 in a race with eight speed horses makes his job harder than usual.

Our price $10.00 · SP $7.80 · Karis Teetan

California Bay is the overlay. His last three runs were ruined by a checked start, a hampering and a poor beginning, yet he still finished close enough to matter, and his win four starts back was in this grade. With eight speed horses mapped to cut each other's throats, a midfield runner with a strong rider gets his chance.

Our price $5.00 · SP $4.30 · Zac Purton

He is a natural leader drawn widest of all, carries top weight and faces a stack of other speed horses; last time he led at the Valley over this trip he faded to 11th.

Our price $7.00 · SP $9.40 · Jerry Chau

Honest, consistent and drawn to get the run of the race, Romantic Laos will almost certainly be in the finish. His July second over this course and distance is one of the best form lines in the field, and a hot pace suits him.

Our price $12.00 · SP $7.20 · Angus Chung

He is not a reliable winner, so an each-way approach is the way to back him.

Our price $5.00 · SP $4.80 · Nichola Yuen

When these two clashed here in June he was beaten only narrowly, and today he meets Live Wire 5.5kg better off thanks to the claim. His last-start failure came from a wide draw without cover, and he bounced back with a strong trial. The stable's cold run and the inexperienced rider are real concerns, but the form and weight swing are compelling.

Our price $8.00 · SP $12.00 · Richard Kingscote

Starry Show turned his form around sharply with a course-and-distance win in July, and the manner and clock of that run say he is a genuine player if he repeats it. Barrier 1 lets him hold a forward spot without using petrol, which matters on this circuit. The doubts are whether the improvement was a one-off, the weight rise and the pressure a hot tempo may put on the front runners.

Our price $7.00 · SP $7.80 · Jerry Chau

Grouper is the progressive type in a field of exposed Class 4 sprinters. His Sha Tin second in June was a winning-standard run and his last-start sixth, after leading a very fast race from gate 10, read much better than the placing. Today he draws barrier 2, drops to 56kg and can take a sit behind the speed rather than making it.

Our price $8.00 · SP $8.20 · Derek Leung

Genius Baby is the pace-map play. He has been running on hard from the back for five straight starts, with his last two efforts good enough to win an average Class 4 sprint, and today he gets the dream gate plus a race full of speed horses who should set it up for him. Rider intent from barrier 1 could have him sitting midfield rather than last, which removes his main weakness.

Our price $13.00 · SP $20.00 · E C W Wong

Elegant Life is the clear overlay. Strip out the last start, where he missed the kick, and his two Happy Valley runs before it were the best form in this race - a win and a fast-time third under a big weight. The Fownes stable knows how to win at the Valley and the horse drops in weight.

Our price $8.00 · SP $18.00 · Andrea Atzeni

Super Unicorn is the reliable Valley specialist. Three wins and six placings from 18 starts at this track and distance, and both his last measured efforts here were up to winning standard; last start he was held up at a key stage and still ran third. From barrier 3 with a fast tempo forecast he should get every chance from midfield.

Our price $9.00 · SP $13.00 · Jerry Chau

Embraces is the overlay. His Happy Valley 1650m record shows two wins and a third from 10 attempts, and his third here in May measured up to winning standard. He then ran well at Sha Tin when caught wide the whole way. With eight speed horses set to make this a genuine test, a strong finisher with 54kg has a big edge if he gets luck from the wide draw.

Our price $5.00 · SP $5.60 · Zac Purton

Purton is the big plus. However he is expected to settle near the tail and this track punishes horses coming from worse than sixth, while his own win here came from a forward position.

Our price $6.00 · SP $8.80 · Andrea Atzeni

Horsepower is the honest type this race often rewards: four straight seconds in this grade over this trip at the Valley, then a wide-draw run that can be ignored. Today he draws barrier 2 and should sit just off a very hot speed, the position that has been producing winners here.

Our price $5.00 · SP $4.60 · Alexis Badel

Our price $6.50 · SP $10.00 · Zac Purton

Silvery Breeze is the most reliable horse in the race and a Happy Valley specialist, with Purton on board. The problem is gate 12, the widest of all, and outside draws win far less often here. He either has to roll forward early into a hot tempo or concede ground, and both scenarios cost him.

Our price $7.00 · SP $7.00 · Andrea Atzeni

Each-way value.