Punt like a Pro, without the know!
Victoria · Wednesday 23 September 2026
Our top pick won 3 of 8 races at Geelong. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
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She is a first-starter with the most attractive package in the race: a winning Flemington hit-out that showed genuine acceleration, the ace draw at a track that rewards runners settling close, and one of the best riders in the state engaged. Against her are eight opponents, most of whom are either equally unexposed or exposed maidens who have repeatedly failed to win. Expected to be handy and hard to hold out.
His trial and jump-out form is the strongest of the debutants and the stable/jockey combination is a plus. The reservation is purely positional: barrier nine over the short Geelong course, at a track where wide gates and runners caught out of the first three at the 400m fare poorly, means he must either burn early or get back.
Easy to forgive his last start — wide and exposed at Randwick and vetted afterwards — and his first-up Warwick Farm run was the best raceday effort by any of the unexposed brigade in this field. He is freshened, the stable have added gear to help him focus, and he maps to sit in the first two or three from barrier four, which is exactly where you want to be over this trip at Geelong.
She is the natural leader, drawn ideally in barrier 3 at a track that strongly favours horses on the speed, and drops in weight.
Now she draws the inside gate for the first time this campaign with a rider who knows the track.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 7 | Avery Anna | 2 | Craig Williams | Leon, Troy Corstens and Will Larkin | 55kg | $5.00 |
| 2nd | 6 | Voltrix | 9 | Michael Dee | Ben, Will and JD Hayes | 57kg | $2.30 |
| 3rd | 4 | Big Lap | 7 | Jamie Melham | Adrian McGregor | 57kg | $3.10 |
| 4th | 3 | Servenia | 1 | Luke Currie | Vincent Hall | 57.5kg | $13.00 |
| 5th | 5 | First Act | 4 | Damian Lane | Chris Waller | 57kg | $7.50 |
| 6th | 2 | Pneuma | 5 | Dylan Dunn | Peter Jaques | 59.5kg | $51.00 |
| 7th | 1 | Montostratus | 6 | Brad Rawiller | Ken Fythe | 59.5kg | $101.00 |
| 8th | 8 | Madame Doubtfire | 8 | Valentin Le Boeuf | Ricardo Meunier | 55kg | $151.00 |
| Scr | 9 | Youmzaa | 3 | Matt Laurie | 55kg |
Meness was the on-pace horse in the Bendigo three-way finish and his run there was a genuine winning-standard performance rather than a slowly-run mirage. He now gets barrier 3, a jockey in red-hot form and a track that has been heavily favouring runners who settle in the first three.
He is not the top pick because his entire case rests on one run made from the back, at a track where get-back horses have been almost eliminated lately, with a stable out of form and a moderate tempo likely.
Trentino is the most consistent of the rest, running honestly on Good ground at every start and looking like a horse crying out for a step up in trip. The inside draw finally gives him a chance to save ground rather than go back from a wide gate.
She has been racing from poor gates and getting held up, and now draws the rail with a map that puts her right where Geelong winners come from.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 10 | True Rebel | 7 | Billy Egan | Danny O'Brien | 57kg | $1.80 |
| 2nd | 8 | Meness | 3 | Mark Zahra | Mark W Walker | 57kg | $2.10 |
| 3rd | 3 | Trentino | 4 | Beau Mertens | Julius Sandhu | 59.5kg | $21.00 |
| 4th | 2 | Top Rich | 9 | Michael Dee | Clayton Douglas | 59.5kg | $51.00 |
| 5th | 4 | Whatwashethinking | 10 | Liana Wood | Noni Shelton | 56.5kg | $101.00 |
| 6th | 7 | Moonlight Romance | 1 | Bailey Kinninmont | Noni Shelton | 54.5kg | $71.00 |
| 7th | 1 | Rat Pack | 6 | Brad Rawiller | Mark and Levi Kavanagh | 59.5kg | $81.00 |
| 8th | 6 | Kissattack | 5 | Damien Thornton | Danny O'Brien | 57.5kg | $51.00 |
| 9th | 9 | Rising Nine Top | 2 | Jabez Johnstone | Ciaron Maher | 55.5kg | $26.00 |
| 10th | 5 | Dejavast | 8 | Craig Newitt | Lee Hunter | 57.5kg | $151.00 |
Barrier four, a moderate tempo and a track that rewards handy runners all suit. The step to 1425m looks a positive for a Frankel filly, and the Maher–Allen pairing is the most dependable set of connections engaged. Short, but justified.
Her Bendigo debut read better than sixth — she raced keenly the whole way and still held her ground against the standard. The nose roll is a sensible fix and she draws to take up the running from gate two, which is exactly the profile Geelong is rewarding with the rail out six metres.
She bowled along in front at Hawkesbury and only surrendered late for third — a sound maiden effort. The Flemington jump-out win on a Good track shows she is forward, and the tongue tie addresses the one thing she has been doing wrong, which is losing traction late.
Her third at Sandown and narrow second at Seymour were both run to a winning standard, and no rival has matched that level. She led throughout last start and only got nabbed on the line. Geelong is currently rewarding leaders and on-pace runners, and with a moderate tempo she should control the race. Barrier 10 is the only concern, but her early speed should overcome it.
Her only start reads far better than the bare fourth: slowly away and crowded, she was still near last at the 400m before rattling home. That was the best closing effort produced by anyone in this race. She has since shown up well in a Bendigo jump-out and the lift to 1425m should be to her liking.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 12 | Stipulation | 4 | John Allen | Ciaron Maher | 57kg | $1.60 |
| 2nd | 3 | Fringilla | 2 | Jamie Melham | Ben, Will and JD Hayes | 57kg | $3.40 |
| 3rd | 9 | Roebuck Plane | 5 | Jordan Childs | Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott | 57kg | $13.00 |
| 4th | 1 | Autumn Deel | 11 | Declan Bates | Matt Cumani | 57kg | $26.00 |
| 5th | 10 | Scorching Beauty | 6 | Billy Egan | Dominic Sutton | 57kg | $101.00 |
| 5th | 11 | Star Je Taime | 8 | Damian Lane | Danny O'Brien | 57kg | $14.00 |
| 7th | 4 | Girl With A Pearl | 9 | Dylan Dunn | Sara Ryan | 57kg | $31.00 |
| 8th | 5 | Miss Capri | 7 | Patrick Moloney | John Moloney | 57kg | $61.00 |
| 9th | 2 | Delahra | 3 | Lachlan Neindorf | S Nichols and H Black | 57kg | $21.00 |
| 10th | 8 | Raisonic | 12 | Jye McNeil | Mark and Levi Kavanagh | 57kg | $201.00 |
| Scr | 6 | Moraza | 1 | David and Coral Feek | 57kg | ||
| Scr | 7 | Platinum Pearl | 10 | Ciaron Maher | 57kg |
He now gets 1325m with a fast tempo likely, and a leading rider on board from a stable firing.
He maps to settle in the first five from barrier 5, which is exactly where you want to be at Geelong.
So Royal makes her debut for a stable that rarely sends out unfit first-starters and her Mornington jump-out second was encouraging. The So You Think pedigree and minimum weight are pluses at this trip.
Silky Seth has a real pattern edge on this track. His Geelong placing over 1400m on Good ground was an excellent run, and all his placings have come on this surface.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Discover Lupino | 9 | Ethan Brown | Clifford Brown | 59.5kg | $13.00 |
| 2nd | 9 | Conquer The World | 14 | Ben Melham | Clinton McDonald | 57kg | $1.70 |
| 3rd | 5 | Silky Seth | 7 | Jamie Mott | Danny O'Brien | 59.5kg | $12.00 |
| 4th | 13 | Tanabata | 4 | Jye McNeil | Chris Waller | 55kg | $15.00 |
| 5th | 1 | Bel Runna | 1 | Melea Castle | Brooke Verwey-Mitchell | 59.5kg | $101.00 |
| 6th | 11 | Whitebait | 8 | Damian Lane | Chris Waller | 57kg | $3.40 |
| 7th | 6 | Sirvaldane | 5 | Teodore Nugent | John Moloney | 59.5kg | $17.00 |
| 8th | 4 | Irish Master | 6 | Brad Rawiller | Mark and Levi Kavanagh | 59.5kg | $61.00 |
| 9th | 3 | El Ferdinando | 12 | Lauren Burke | S Nichols and H Black | 56.5kg | $101.00 |
| 10th | 14 | Coldstream | 10 | Bailey Kinninmont | Michele Denham | 56.5kg | $151.00 |
| Scr | 7 | Vadar | 3 | Aaron Laing | 59.5kg | ||
| Scr | 8 | Cool Aza Breeze | 11 | Jabez Johnstone | Ciaron Maher | 56kg | |
| Scr | 10 | Travellingmerchant | 2 | Mark and Levi Kavanagh | 57kg | ||
| Scr | 12 | So Royal | 13 | Anthony and Sam Freedman | 55kg |
Her Pakenham maiden win in May was the best performance any runner in this race has produced, she has placed at all four starts and she races handy enough to exploit the forward bias at Geelong from barrier 4. The queries are a Good track, where her one run was her least impressive, and a long gap between races.
The overlay in the race. Her recent efforts at and around this grade have been up to a winning standard, and today she gets the ideal Geelong setup: barrier 7, forward position under 55kg on a track where the leaders and those close to them dominate. Each-way.
The issue is the map: he settles near the tail and Geelong has been near-impossible for backmarkers at recent meetings, and he lugs 60kg from barrier 10.
A consistent old sprinter who has placed at his last two starts in this grade, including at Geelong, and shapes as the leader on a track where front-runners have been dominant. Small each-way.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Cyber Link | 10 | Damian Lane | Greg Eurell | 60kg | $4.80 |
| 2nd | 8 | Aradeo | 4 | Jamie Melham | Ben, Will and JD Hayes | 58kg | $3.40 |
| 3rd | 3 | Victory Tune | 2 | Luke Currie | Robbie Griffiths | 60kg | $8.00 |
| 4th | 9 | Cushioned | 5 | Daniel Stackhouse | Anthony and Sam Freedman | 58kg | $6.50 |
| 5th | 13 | Naughty Sort | 7 | Jackson Radley | Glen Thompson | 55kg | $13.00 |
| 6th | 5 | Chip'n'dale | 1 | Melea Castle | Brooke Verwey-Mitchell | 59kg | $101.00 |
| 7th | 6 | Prestige Ole | 9 | Beau Mertens | Julius Sandhu | 58.5kg | $8.50 |
| 8th | 11 | Sumaluv | 12 | John Allen | Ciaron Maher | 57.5kg | $12.00 |
| 9th | 4 | Winning Toast | 3 | Neil Farley | Craig Conron | 59.5kg | $17.00 |
| 10th | 1 | Cryptic Clue | 8 | Bailey Kinninmont | Matthew Brown | 57kg | $151.00 |
| 11th | 10 | The Maggstar | 6 | Ryan Hurdle | Tetyana Furdetska | 58kg | $101.00 |
| 12th | 7 | Thunder Park | 13 | Alana Kelly | Simon Gebert | 58.5kg | $21.00 |
| Scr | 12 | Snakeinthegrass | 14 | Jye McNeil | Peter Gelagotis | 57kg | |
| Scr | 14 | Shades Of Stardom | 11 | Dean Yendall | Matthew Williams | 58kg | |
| Scr | 15 | Russian Front | 15 | Andrea Leek | 58kg |
Dragoon maps beautifully for this. His last-start win at Pakenham was earned in front and his overall form is consistent and competitive at just below this grade. The wide gate and the presence of Thunderbolt Way as a rival leader are the concerns, along with the untried 2440m.
Autumnheat is included for his positional advantage and his proven ability at this level. From barrier 1 he should settle behind the leaders, which is exactly where you want to be at Geelong right now, and his Caulfield run two starts ago showed he can measure up at BM78. He has already won over this course and distance.
Shultzy is the standout on form. His Sandown second at this grade over 2400m was the best performance in this field, and his prior Caulfield run at the same level also stacked up. He has three wins at Geelong, including one at this trip, and handles good ground.
Thunderbolt Way is the value runner. He has won both starts over this course and distance, his trainer is three from four at Geelong, and he will be on the pace with only 54kg on a track that has been very kind to leaders. His last-start tenth at BM78 looks worse than it was — he was drawn 13 and set a fast pace before fading, whereas today's tempo should be far more manageable.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 6 | Autumnheat | 1 | Harry Coffey | Matt Cumani | 55.5kg | $3.00 |
| 2nd | 2 | Dragoon | 10 | Jackson Radley | Greg Eurell | 57kg | $4.40 |
| 3rd | 4 | Black Peppermint | 8 | Logan Bates | Patrick Payne | 56.5kg | $6.00 |
| 4th | 7 | Chihuly | 5 | Jye McNeil | Greg Eurell | 54kg | $5.00 |
| 5th | 9 | Biratu | 7 | Craig Williams | Timothy Fitzsimmons | 54kg | $6.00 |
| 6th | 10 | Sir Rockford | 9 | Teodore Nugent | Aaron Laing | 54kg | $41.00 |
| 7th | 1 | Dictionary | 3 | Holly Durnan | John Moloney | 56kg | $14.00 |
| Scr | 3 | Shultzy | 2 | Adam McCabe | Pat Cannon | 57kg | |
| Scr | 5 | Euphoric | 6 | Craig Newitt | Greg Eurell | 56kg | |
| Scr | 8 | Thunderbolt Way | 4 | Jett Stanley | Nelson Smyth | 54kg |
His Seymour romp in the same grade was the best performance in this field by a margin, and he has run to a winning standard at every start. From barrier 1 he should lead a moderately run race on a track that has heavily favoured front-runners, and he is a fresh, improving type rather than an exposed handicapper.
His Tatura win with a big weight was a high-quality performance and he has been genuinely competitive at BM64-66 level in the city, so this grade is well within reach. The concern is the run style: he will settle behind the speed and Geelong has been unkind to horses giving a start.
The honest place horse of the field. He races handy, has already run a close second in this grade at this track and distance, and Good ground is his best surface.
His Bendigo win at this distance was a solid performance and his earlier maiden efforts on Good tracks were sound.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Just Desserts | 1 | Michael Dee | Ben, Will and JD Hayes | 62.5kg | $1.55 |
| 2nd | 2 | Stay Humble | 5 | Jabez Johnstone | Ciaron Maher | 60.5kg | $6.00 |
| 3rd | 6 | Superstock | 10 | Damian Lane | Reece Goodwin | 61kg | $18.00 |
| 4th | 12 | The Mansman | 7 | Jett Stanley | Peter Gelagotis | 58kg | $71.00 |
| 5th | 8 | Octane Reign | 6 | Dylan Dunn | Jason Warren | 60.5kg | $61.00 |
| 6th | 3 | Mickidabeel | 12 | Jamie Melham | Aaron Laing | 61.5kg | $12.00 |
| 7th | 4 | Rogue Warrior | 8 | Billy Egan | Danny O'Brien | 61kg | $18.00 |
| 7th | 10 | Sarapo | 13 | Craig Williams | Chris Waller | 59.5kg | $16.00 |
| 9th | 7 | Lunar Force | 2 | Jamie Mott | Robbie Griffiths | 60.5kg | $18.00 |
| 10th | 5 | She's Pretty Rich | 11 | Bailey Kinninmont | Matthew Brown | 58kg | $31.00 |
| 11th | 11 | King Camelot | 9 | Linda Meech | Paul Preusker | 59kg | $41.00 |
| Scr | 9 | Rich King | 4 | Matt Laurie | 59.5kg | ||
| 13 | Gold Relay | 3 | Sarah Robbins | Glen Gascoyne | 54.5kg |
He won this same grade at Geelong over 1100m twelve days ago, finishing over the top of them with the best closing effort in this field, and repeats the track, distance, going and rider. The anticipated fast tempo from Mr Assertive and Rosangela is exactly what he needs, and barrier 5 helps him avoid being too far back on a forward-biased track.
Three wins from seven on Good ground and a previous Geelong win give her the profile to be the main danger. The concern is racing style: she will settle near last on a track that has been punishing backmarkers, so she relies on the fast tempo materialising.
A lightly raced gelding whose two wins at Kyneton and Sale were sharp enough to suggest he can win a BM66 provincial race. He was well beaten in a strong Flemington 3yo race last time but that can be forgiven, and the Flemington jump-out win suggests he is ready. He has raced closer than the map indicates in his wins, which matters at Geelong.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 10 | Mr Assertive | 1 | Daniel Stackhouse | Mark and Levi Kavanagh | 58kg | $8.50 |
| 2nd | 12 | Pure Passion | 2 | Luke Nolen | Peter Moody and Katherine Coleman | 57.5kg | $7.50 |
| 3rd | 6 | Sea Poem | 7 | Craig Williams | Ben, Will and JD Hayes | 59.5kg | $7.00 |
| 4th | 8 | It's A Yes | 5 | Jamie Mott | Lindsey Smith | 59kg | $2.20 |
| 5th | 5 | Rosangela | 11 | Jamie Melham | Mick Price and Michael Kent Jnr | 59.5kg | $7.50 |
| 6th | 9 | Thailess | 10 | John Allen | Simon Ryan | 58.5kg | $14.00 |
| 7th | 4 | Sun Devil | 9 | Damian Lane | Danny O'Brien | 60kg | $8.00 |
| 8th | 1 | Bullets High | 4 | Nadia Daniels | Kelvin Bourke | 63.5kg | $101.00 |
| 9th | 13 | First Division | 13 | Caitlin Hollowood | Kelvin Bourke | 52kg | $101.00 |
| Scr | 2 | Shaime | 6 | Ethan Brown | Clifford Brown | 62kg | |
| Scr | 3 | She's My Ex | 12 | Jordan Childs | Mick Price and Michael Kent Jnr | 60kg | |
| Scr | 7 | Sussex Duchess | 8 | Billy Egan | Andrew Noblet | 59.5kg | |
| Scr | 11 | Arabella Star | 3 | Harry Coffey | Tony and Calvin McEvoy | 57.5kg |
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