Happy Valley tips and results

Our price $5.50 · SP $11.00 · Lyle Hewitson

All Are Mine ran the best race of anyone in this field last start when closing hard for third at Sha Tin, and he has already won a Class 5 over this course and distance from the tail of the field. The forecast fast pace from four leaders is exactly what he wants.

Our price $5.00 · SP $4.80 · Luke Ferraris

Soaring Bronco was arguably unlucky last start, racing wide the whole way from the outside alley yet still finishing close up at a winning level. Blinkers for the first time could be the change that turns his consistent placings into a win. The draw in 4 is a big improvement and he has performed well at Happy Valley over 1650m. Weight and a low win rate are the concerns, but he is a genuine top-three chance.

Our price $3.50 · SP $4.50 · Andrea Atzeni

His Sha Tin second last start was the strongest recent run in this race and was achieved from midfield, which is precisely where he will be today as four leaders contest the early speed. He handled Happy Valley well enough from a wide gate in July and draws better here.

Our price $5.00 · SP $3.10 · Angus Chung

He gets the inside draw and light weight that this track rewards, and will sit on or just off the pace. The issue is whether he can hold his position when several leaders press him, and he has yet to win at the Valley in five attempts.

Our price $11.00 · SP $25.00 · Keith Yeung

Find My Love is the pick of the swoopers in a race that looks set to fall apart in front. Four runners want to lead and he is the one proven closer with a Class 4 win at Happy Valley over this trip to his name.

Our price $5.00 · SP $6.80 · E C W Wong

His win here in May and his fourth in June over this course and distance are the best track-and-distance efforts among these runners. Last start he was slowly away and hampered in a crawl, so that run can be forgiven. He drops in weight, draws well and races for the leading Happy Valley stable, with a fast tempo set to suit his midfield pattern.

Our price $6.00 · SP $2.70 · James Orman

However, the race was run at a crawl and the winning time was ordinary, so the form does not read as strongly as the result suggests. He carries 3.5kg more today, changes to a jockey with a modest record at the track and has a poor overall strike rate.

Our price $10.00 · SP $15.00 · Brenton Avdulla

Mega Mastermind is a value each-way play. The risk is his racing pattern, as a hot pace with three leaders could see him overrace.

Our price $8.00 · SP $6.10 · James Orman

Invictus is the improver in the race. His runs over 1000m and 1400m were both close to what wins a Class 4, and 1200m from barrier 4 looks the right set-up. The new headgear is a slight worry as it hints at keenness, and he is unproven at the Valley. Still, he maps to sit just off a hot speed and finish over the top of tiring leaders. Fair value at nine dollars as a place-with-upside proposition.

Our price $9.00 · SP $12.00 · Karis Teetan

Podium is the forgotten horse. His last three runs have all been of a quality that wins Class 4 races, including a luckless ninth last time after a bad start and a blocked run. He was only just behind Brownneedsfurther here in June and now draws barrier 1 with a feather weight. With three leaders set to burn each other off, he can sit fourth on the fence and be the first to pounce.

Our price $5.00 · SP $5.00 · Karis Teetan

He won this race in June from a wide gate and his third here in April was also of winning quality, giving him the most reliable form profile at this track and trip. The wide draw and long break are genuine concerns, but he has proven he can overcome an outside barrier at Happy Valley.

Our price $7.00 · SP $5.10 · E C W Wong

The problem is barrier 12, which forces him to either burn petrol crossing the field or accept a position further back than he likes at a track where backmarkers struggle.

Our price $7.50 · SP $10.00 · Harry Bentley

His second here in May would win most Class 4 races at Happy Valley and he was hampered in the straight that day. He draws to settle just behind the speed with a light weight, which is the ideal pattern on this track, and has had two trials to tune up. The jockey's cold run and a modest win rate keep him under the radar, so each-way is the sensible play.

Our price $9.00 · SP $19.00 · Britney Wong

Harmony Fire knows this course and distance better than anything in the race and his last two placings here were solid efforts. He settles just off the speed, which is exactly the position the track has been rewarding, and with six leaders likely to go hard he should be running on late. The light weight helps.

Our price $8.00 · SP $27.00 · Matthew L Chadwick

Happy United is the value in the race. His July win here was the strongest run any of these has produced at the distance, and he gets a huge weight relief for the class rise. The negatives are clear: a wide gate, a leader's style in a race full of leaders, and quiet connections.

Our price $4.20 · SP $5.60 · Jerry Chau

Flying Wrote has been a model of consistency in Class 3 at the Valley, with a win and two seconds from his four starts before a forgivable failure from a wide gate. He now draws barrier 4, has had a trial to sharpen him, and the anticipated fast pace plays right into his hands. The 60kg and cold connections are the only real knocks.

Our price $7.50 · SP $9.30 · Zac Purton

Akashvani produced the finest closing burst of anyone in this race when sixth at Sha Tin, making up a huge amount of ground from the rear after being taken back from a wide gate. He again draws wide and will again need to come from behind, which is a tough ask at the Valley, but the expected hot tempo and Purton's booking give him every chance of being in the finish. Best assessed as a place proposition.

Our price $11.00 · SP $17.00 · E C W Wong

Anode is badly overpriced given the quality of his last two race-day efforts, both of which were good enough to win at this level. He was hampered at the start and again in the straight last time, which disguised a strong performance. The unproven Valley record and apprentice booking are the risks.

Our price $8.50 · SP $19.00 · Luke Ferraris

Now he draws barrier 2 and can take a sit behind the speed rather than fight for the lead. Place only.

Our price $8.00 · SP $25.00 · Derek Leung

Overlooked because his recent racing has been at 1000m at Sha Tin, yet he has two wins from five at this track and trip and has run to a winning standard at his last three starts. A very fast speed with four leaders is exactly what a strong finisher wants.

Our price $5.50 · SP $14.00 · James Orman

Without Compare has done nothing wrong at Happy Valley, winning both starts in this grade including a strong last-start win from a wide gate with interference. He maps to sit handy from barrier 7 in a race with only moderate speed, which is exactly where Valley winners come from.

Our price $7.50 · SP $11.00 · Karis Teetan

The Auspicious is the quiet achiever of the race, with every recent run at the Valley over 1800m up to a winning standard and an actual win here from the tail in April. The problem is that he needs the race to unfold for him, and two ordinary trials plus a cold jockey-trainer combination temper enthusiasm.