Northam tips and results

Our price $3.20 · SP $2.10 · Chris Parnham

However, a wide draw is a real negative at Northam over this trip, especially in a likely slowly run race, and he is untried on soft ground. He can win but is not the clear top pick.

Our price $5.50 · SP $4.20 · Steven Parnham

Mr Kaplan drops to maiden grade after two runs in stronger company where she was slow away and held up. She has shown good late speed and gets a favourable inside draw, but she must settle closer than she did last time. In a slowly run race, her get-back pattern is a risk, yet her class and connections give her a solid place chance.

Our price $6.50 · SP $12.00 · Jason Lyon

Run Rupert Run is a consistent maiden who has placed at this track and distance and was narrowly beaten last start. He maps to settle on the pace from an inside draw, which suits a slow tempo.

Our price $6.50 · SP $10.00 · Brad Parnham

Last prep he contested open two-year-old races and was only a couple of lengths away over 1300m on soft going when he could not get clear running, and he was a closing third at Pinjarra before that. Back in a plain maiden he is well placed, but gate 9 and a 148-day break mean he needs the race to fall his way.

Our price $4.20 · SP $2.70 · Jordan Turner

Ran the best maiden race of anything in this field when second over this track and trip last start, held up until the 250m and still finishing off strongly. Two runs back she was beaten a whisker at Bunbury and she also placed on a soft track at York. Drawn perfectly in five and naturally settles in the first four, which is exactly where you need to be at Northam with give in the ground. The knock is five tries without a win and a rider in a quiet patch.

Our price $4.60 · SP $6.00 · Brayden Gaerth

The wet-track horse of the race — eight soft-track starts for a win and two placings — and he maps perfectly: inside gate, sitting second behind a slow-tempo leader. His last-start fifth over this trip at Ascot was a tough effort, trapped outside the leader in a steady race before being checked late. The Northam soft-track profile strongly favours horses positioned in the first six at the 400m and he'll be there.

Our price $5.00 · SP $3.50 · Brad Parnham

His best recent effort was a strong-closing fifth over 1700m after being taken back from a wide gate; his latest, however, was a flat sixth when he enjoyed the box seat and had every chance. He has been well beaten in all three wet-track runs, and a month between starts adds risk.

Our price $7.00 · SP $5.50 · Holly Nottle

The value runner. With a slow tempo likely, her midfield spot will be close enough to make a run at them.

Our price $7.50 · SP $11.00 · Holly Nottle

Only two runs in and both had merit; last time at Kalgoorlie she came from near enough to last to be beaten under a length, running on strongly. The concern is a wide gate and a get-back pattern on a track where leaders and handy horses dominate.

Our price $2.20 · SP $1.70 · Holly Nottle

Clearly the class runner of a modest Northam maiden. Two starts for two nose seconds in city three-year-old handicaps, one of them over 1000m on a heavy track, so her formlines are far stronger than anything her rivals bring. She goes well fresh and handles cut in the ground.

Our price $7.50 · SP $12.00 · Giaan O'Donnell

Lightly raced three-year-old who gets in with just 51kg after the claim and draws perfectly in gate two, exactly where you want to be at Northam over 1000m. She has placed in both soft-track runs, including a 1000m third at Ascot where she ran to a winning standard, and she was honest again at Kalgoorlie last time on the same surface. An on-pace type in a race with genuine speed — hard to beat on that map and weight.

Our price $14.00 · SP $26.00 · Chanel Cooper

Raced up on a strong speed and was only collared late over this track and trip 21 days ago — the most convincing last-start run in the field. She is second-up with a placing already in that role and has the early dash to cross this field, but gate 14 forces her to work hard early and she has been run down when leading before.

Our price $21.00 · SP $51.00 · Natika Riordan

Has been around long enough to know the caper and owns three seconds from five starts at Northam over the 1000m, including a nose defeat here two starts ago that stands up as the best single run in this field. She was forced inwards and well beaten last time, so forgive that.

Our price $4.50 · SP $2.90 · Natika Riordan

An on-pace filly who maps to settle in the first few, which is exactly where winners come from at Northam. She was dominant when leading at this track last preparation and has been solid in stronger company since. The wide gate and a lack of a win over the trip are the concerns, but she should be in the finish.

Our price $5.00 · SP $4.00 · Clint Johnston-Porter

Has the best exposed form and a solid record here, and she closed well for second at this track last preparation. But she does her best work from the back half of the field, and Northam has been unkind to swoopers.

Our price $11.00 · SP $41.00 · Jason Li

Ran on strongly for second over this trip last start and drops back in grade with a claiming rider.

Our price $7.50 · SP $20.00 · Natasha Faithfull

Snippy Sean is racing well, with two narrow seconds this preparation including a strong rail run at Ascot. He maps to settle in the first four from barrier seven, which is a plus given Northam's soft-track pattern.

Our price $12.00 · SP $26.00 · Steven Parnham

Guarantor is the value play at 20-1. He is a proven soft-track performer with two wins and several placings on rain-affected ground, and he has already won and placed at Northam. His last-start fifth at Ascot was a sound effort and he has enough speed to settle in the first four, avoiding the backmarker trap.

Our price $9.00 · SP $9.50 · Holly Nottle

The likely front-runner who should control a moderate tempo over a mile he stays well. He has a fine soft-track record, has placed repeatedly at this trip and was Listed-placed two runs back off a similar lead. Two plain recent runs temper enthusiasm, but from a good gate he can dictate and prove hard to run down.

Our price $10.00 · SP $11.00 · Laqdar Ramoly

Our price $6.50 · SP $7.50 · Lucy Fiore

The likely leader and the one they all have to catch. A two-time winner over the short courses, including a Class 3 at Bunbury two starts back, she gets an uncontested lead in a race without much pressure. This track rewards the first few at the 400m, so she'll take catching. The query is whether she can see out a truly run 1300m on soft ground, having been run down late in similar conditions before.

Our price $9.50 · SP $6.00 · Victoria Corver

The class runner of the field, a Listed-placed mare dropping into a Class 3. She resumed with a close third at this track over 1000m and should be fitter second up. Top weight is the burden and she's yet to race on a rain-affected surface, but her best form is clearly good enough if she handles the ground. She'll need to settle closer than usual to be in the finish.

Our price $14.00 · SP $14.00 · Holly Nottle

The value runner of the field. A six-year-old mare who has found form late, winning her maiden last start over 1400m after two solid efforts. She maps to settle in the first three from a good gate and her recent runs are as sharp as anything here.