Sha Tin tips and results

Our price $2.40 · SP $2.00 · Nichola Yuen

Jedi Spurs is the clear form horse. His last-start second behind a smart winner was the strongest run any rival has produced at this level, and he did it carrying 61kg from the front. Today he drops to 54kg with the claim and should control the race from barrier 6 on a track that rewards being on speed. The only doubt is whether he sees out 1200m, having weakened at this trip in July.

Our price $7.00 · SP $6.70 · Derek Leung

I Am The Walrus is the best of the debutants on trial evidence. His second Conghua trial was a clear step up on his first, and the time was the quickest among the unraced horses in this field. A mid-field draw in barrier 5 lets him take a handy spot, which is how races are won here. The pedigree is pure speed. The negatives are a cold jockey, a modest stable, and the obvious unknowns of a first-starter.

Our price $7.50 · SP $32.00 · Alexis Badel

Supreme Winner has been running to a good standard at this grade, and his 2nd last start came from midfield on the speed. He carries one of the lighter weights and has a workable gate.

Our price $4.50 · SP $2.30 · Zac Purton

Our price $8.00 · SP $5.50 · Jerry Chau

Vigor Elleegant won last start in a time that matches the best in the field and he gets handy positions.

Our price $4.00 · SP $8.10 · Harry Bentley

Amazing Duck is the form pick on class and conditions. He was a clear second with top weight in Class 5 last month in the best run this field has produced recently, and he ran within a length of Class 4 winners at this exact course and distance in mid-year. Dropping to the minimum weight from barrier 1 with a lone leader in front, he should sit second or third throughout and be the hardest to pass.

Our price $7.00 · SP $9.40 · Derek Leung

Absolute Awakened brings the sharpest recent form in the race, winning here at 24-1 in September with a strong finish and then running fourth under a big weight last time. The mile should suit a horse who was gathering momentum late over 1400m. The negative is his running style, as he needs the race to unfold and Sha Tin rewards horses in the first three on the turn.

Our price $9.00 · SP $18.00 · Angus Chung

Good Luck Babe is the value runner. He is the one proven leader in the race and with a moderate tempo expected he can control it under a light weight. He has won here over this trip, ran well in September in the gear he reverts to today, and his last-start failure came from a wide gate in blinkers.

Our price $6.00 · SP $4.10 · Derek Leung

That profile wins plenty of these races. However he has never raced in Class 3, his last win only met Class 4 standards, his jockey and trainer are both out of form, and he faces two rivals who have already run to winning Class 3 form.

Our price $8.00 · SP $17.00 · Jerry Chau

Both his career wins have come over 2000m from a forward position on good ground, one of them in this exact class at Sha Tin in June under Jerry Chau, who returns today. He led last start over 1800m and faded, yet the run was still of a reasonable standard behind today's top pick. In a race with no established leader he should get a soft run near the speed, and with a trial since he is each-way value at 10-1.

Our price $6.00 · SP $19.00 · Harry Bentley

E Ho Ho broke through here three weeks ago, sitting third early from the outside gate, taking over at the 400m and winning like a horse that had finally put it together. Today he draws barrier 3, is the quickest beginner in the race and should lead at his own tempo on a track that rewards exactly that profile. His inconsistency and the weight rise are the risks, but the map is ideal and he is the best-placed horse to exploit it.

Our price $10.00 · SP $14.00 · Keith Yeung

Cavamazing produced the best winning performance in this field last start, sitting sixth from an inside gate and exploding past Speedy Power and company in the straight. Everything that was in his favour that day is harder now: a wide draw, top weight and a rider struggling for form.

Our price $12.00 · SP $22.00 · Luke Ferraris

Light Years Glory is the forgotten horse here. Six weeks ago he won this grade over this course and distance with a performance that remains the best in the field, and his last-start fourth with 60kg from a wide gate was far from disgraceful.

Our price $5.00 · SP $3.80 · Zac Purton

The obvious danger. Purton stays aboard after a first-up Class 4 win with top weight, and the horse was competitive at this level in June when he led from a wide gate and ran to a winning standard. He maps to be prominent from barrier 5, which is the right profile here.

Our price $10.00 · SP $7.20 · Alexis Badel

His third behind Casa Of Honor three weeks ago was a sound run, and the 54.5kg is a help against heavier rivals. Best played each-way as the solid pick to fill the frame.

Our price $10.00 · SP $19.00 · Matthew Poon

Three weeks ago he sat fourth from a wide gate in this grade and finished second, a run that stacks up against almost anything in this field. He has the early speed to be in the first five and a trainer in form.

Our price $6.00 · SP $5.80 · Keith Yeung

Copartner Prance is the main danger on the map. He will be the horse the race is run around, with Colourful King drawn widest and Crimson Flash content to sit second. His two runs this term in Group 3 company have been of winning standard at this level, and the drop back to 1200m off a trial win suits.

Our price $15.00 · SP $27.00 · Harry Bentley

His fourth in the Chief Executive's Cup and third in the Sha Tin Vase show he is competitive in this grade, and both came over the 1200m he returns to after an unsuitable 1000m dash. He maps to sit in the first three on an on-speed track with just 55.5kg.

Our price $6.50 · SP $6.40 · Vincent Ho

Grand Patch was second to Mr Cool last start after settling eighth and has run to a winning standard at each of his last three starts over this trip. He meets Mr Cool 2kg better off and gets first-time blinkers which should sharpen his early speed. Barrier 12 is the problem at Sha Tin over 1400m: he either goes back and needs the race to fall apart, or works too hard early. Vincent Ho knows him well and he is a strong place chance, with his win chance a shade below the top two.

Our price $14.00 · SP $12.00 · Matthew Poon

Let's Have Fun broke through over 1200m here a fortnight ago and his sprint form has been steadily improving. He gets in with 55kg and is the predicted leader on a track where front-runners and handy types dominate. Poon won on him last start and retains the ride. He has never won from nine tries at 1400m and his two previous attempts were poor on soft ground, while barrier 10 means he has to work to find the front.

Our price $5.50 · SP $4.30 · Angus Chung

On a position-driven course with a moderate tempo forecast, the horse most likely to control the race from an inside gate is the logical pick. Drombeg Banner has been thereabouts in both Class 2 runs this season at Sha Tin, beat Chill Easy with less weight last time, and drops to 52kg with a rider who has an outstanding record on him.

Our price $9.00 · SP $14.00 · Alexis Badel

Max Que holds the strongest mile form at this track in the field, having run second in Class 1 here in July and finished within a length of Drombeg Banner carrying more weight in September. His last-start failure came at Happy Valley, where he is less effective, and his record at Sha Tin is far better.

Our price $6.00 · SP $9.10 · Zac Purton

The expected genuine tempo and Purton in the saddle give him every chance to be running on hard late. The problem is his pattern. He settles back in the field at a track where winners come from the first three or four, and his Sha Tin record is poor.

Our price $9.00 · SP $14.00 · Derek Leung

Lucrative Eight is the overlay in the race. He has been placed in five of six starts at this track and distance, including a Class 4 win in July, and his first-up run was sound without ever getting a clear crack at them. The stable is in excellent form and the blinkers go on. He has the on-pace racing pattern that wins at Sha Tin, and 54.5kg is a big help.

Our price $10.00 · SP $112.00 · Angus Chung

Beauty Crescent is a consistent placegetter whose best runs this campaign have been competitive at this level.