Ellerslie tips and results

Our price $4.50 · SP $6.40 · George Rooke

Bellarista has been in outstanding form with three consecutive thirds at Ellerslie, all on Soft ground, but she has two wins on Good tracks from seven starts, suggesting she will handle the surface. Jockey George Rooke is in career-best form with six wins from his last 20 rides. She also carries a featherweight 54kg and has a decent record over 1400m here. She is a serious threat and represents excellent each-way value.

Our price $6.00 · SP $8.70 · Warren Kennedy

He comes off a strong win at the track and distance three weeks ago, albeit on Soft ground. Warren Kennedy retains the ride and has a good record here. However, his record on Good is a clear concern with only one win from 15 starts.

Our price $4.50 · SP $4.20 · Warren Kennedy

Capote has returned this preparation with two encouraging thirds, the latest at Ellerslie behind a subsequent winner. He has drawn well in gate 5 and gets the services of Warren Kennedy, a proven big-race rider.

Our price $6.00 · SP $10.50 · Jasmine Fawcett

Osipova showed significant improvement last start when finishing second at Tauranga on a Good 4 surface, the same track condition today. Jasmine Fawcett takes the ride and is in superb recent form, which adds confidence. The wide draw (16) is a clear negative, but the filly has early speed to cross.

Our price $7.00 · SP $6.00 · Matthew Cameron

Manolete broke his maiden last start at Ellerslie over 1200m and has a perfect placed record at the track and distance. He is progressive but faces a sharp class rise and no experience on Good ground.

Our price $25.00 · SP $36.80 · Courtney Barnes

Imperial Empress comes off a solid 3rd at Tauranga on Good and has a decent distance placing record. Not a top win pick but worth a small each-way investment.

Our price $4.50 · SP $6.60 · Kelly Myers

Just Go Boom drops sharply from Open to Maiden company, a massive class advantage. His last run at Ellerslie in Open grade was a solid 5th, beaten less than 2 lengths by much classier rivals. That performance towers over anything in this maiden field. The main concerns are the lack of a placing and good track form, but his ability is clear. Drawn wide but map is not a strong factor here. Strong winning chance.

Our price $6.00 · SP $7.40 · George Rooke

The step up to 1600m and second-up fitness should bring improvement. Trainer R James & R Wellwood and jockey George Rooke are both in outstanding form, with Rooke riding at 30% winners recently.

Our price $7.00 · SP $7.90 · Warren Kennedy

Beat Of The Sun is a lightly raced 3yo who showed ability by finishing 4th in an Open race on debut as a 2yo and then a solid 3rd in a maiden over 1500m on soft. He is second-up today and should strip fitter. The barrier 3 and in-form jockey Warren Kennedy are positives. Each-way appeal with upside.

Our price $4.00 · SP $6.60 · Jasmine Fawcett

Fly My Wey arrives off a strong win over this track and distance on Soft 6, beating several of today's rivals. He has placed in 47% of his Good-track starts and is a consistent Open-class performer. With Jasmine Fawcett retaining the ride and only 56.5kg, he maps to be competitive from wide draw. The value is clear: recent winning form at the venue outweighs the modest career strike rate.

Our price $6.00 · SP $14.90 · Elen Nicholas

His first-up run over 1600m on Heavy can be forgiven, as that is not his preferred trip. Second-up from a spell with a favourable barrier and weight drop, he is primed to bounce back.

Our price $8.33 · SP $9.20 · Matthew Cameron

I Park is a course-and-distance winner having won over 1600m at Ellerslie last start. However, all his wins came on Soft ground and he is 0 from 6 on Good, which is the surface today. The top weight of 60kg is also a load. If he can repeat his last-start performance and handle the firmer going, he's a genuine threat, but the Good record is a significant query.

Our price $12.50 · SP $16.80 · Kelly Myers

She draws well in barrier 4 and has the benefit of a top trainer in Andrew Forsman. The question mark is her record on Good ground (no runs), but she has placed on Soft and Heavy.

Our price $5.50 · SP $11.90 · Matthew Cartwright

Ruby Rush emerges as the selection based on her proven Good track ability and recent Open class exposure. Her recent 4th placings at Open level at Ellerslie show she belongs in this grade, and the Cartwright/O'Sullivan combination (24% strike rate) is a significant positive. The moderate tempo suits her on-pace racing style, and barrier 5 is ideal. While the 1600m is untested, her pedigree (Ribchester) and recent 1400m form suggest she'll handle it.

Our price $4.20 · SP $2.00 · Warren Kennedy

All her success (2 wins, 2 placings from 4 starts) has come on soft or heavy surfaces. While her recent BM65 win was impressive and the barrier draw is ideal, the Good 4 surface represents a significant question mark. The track bias data shows Good surfaces at Ellerslie favour proven form and class, which works against an unproven runner on the surface. The 1600m distance is also untested. She's a genuine threat if she handles Good ground, but the risk is too high to justify favouritism.

Our price $18.00 · SP $40.50 · Jasmine Fawcett

Unlike many in this field, she has actually won on Good 4 conditions (last start at 1400m), which is a crucial advantage today. Fawcett's exceptional recent form (25% strike rate) and strong combination with trainer Old (17%) adds significant confidence. The massive class rise from Maiden to Open is the primary concern, but her lightly-raced profile (only 3 starts) suggests untapped potential.

Our price $7.00 · SP $21.10 · Sam McNab

The 1600m distance is proven with a 4th at Open level previously. However, his second-up record is concerning (1:0-0-0), and the jockey booking (McNab with only 5% strike rate at Ellerslie) raises questions about stable confidence. The class rise from BM65 to Open is significant, but his previous Open exposure at 1600m suggests he can compete.