Kilcoy tips and results

Our price $2.50 · SP $2.10 · Harrison Shaw

The slow tempo predicted means he'll likely settle back from the wide gate, requiring a strong finish.

Our price $7.00 · SP $9.00 · Aidan Keeley

Her two previous runs at this exact track/distance (Kilcoy 1500m Soft 6) provide the most relevant form references, finishing 6th and 4th. Barrier 2 is ideal for the inside-biased track, and 54.5kg with in-form Aidan Keeley (20% strike rate) is competitive. However, her 0% win rate and inability to convert on Soft tracks (0 from 4) are concerns. The 49-day gap and surface change from synthetic add query marks.

Our price $8.00 · SP $11.00 · Chloe Lowe

Chloe Lowe is riding in career-best form with 20% strike rate, and the Lowe/De Boeck combination is building momentum despite no wins yet. Barrier 3 is ideal for the inside-biased track in a slow tempo, allowing tactical positioning. The step to 1500m suits his stamina profile based on best efforts at 1400m+. However, his 0% win rate from 15 starts is a major concern, and the inconsistent form pattern (3rd, 7th, 2nd, 8th) suggests reliability issues.

Our price $2.80 · SP $2.90 · Harrison Shaw

Not Telling presents the strongest winning credentials despite being first-up from a long spell. While the 414-day break and lack of wet-track form are concerns, the gelding operation and top weight allocation suggest stable confidence. The moderate tempo should suit his proven early speed, and the class drop from provincial Warwick to country Kilcoy is favourable. Harrison Shaw's poor recent form is a negative, but the horse's inherent ability outweighs jockey concerns.

Our price $4.00 · SP $6.50 · Bailie Baker

Shown The Door offers each-way value based on Bailie Baker's exceptional Kilcoy record (20% wins, 40% places) and the favourable inside barrier (6). The 89-day spell and lack of trials are negatives, as is Baker's recent form drought (0 wins from 20 rides). The moderate tempo should suit sustained finishers, but the lack of wins (0 from 3 starts) and weak trainer/jockey combination limit confidence. Best approached as an each-way proposition.

Our price $9.00 · SP $11.00 · Aidan Keeley

The gelding's soft track form (9:0-0-2) includes two third placings, and Aidan Keeley's strong recent form (20% strike rate) is a positive. The inside barrier (1) suits the Soft 5 bias, and the 28-day turnaround indicates fitness. However, the complete lack of wins from 29 starts is a major concern, suggesting limited winning ability despite consistent placing. The absence of 800m form creates distance uncertainty, and the untested jockey/trainer combination adds risk. The moderate tempo should suit, but this is a horse that finds ways to get beaten. Best approached as a value roughie for exotics or small each-way stakes.

Our price $9.00 · SP $16.00 · Sophie Wilcock

Her soft track win at Gold Coast and class drop from BM65 to BM60 provide a foundation, and Wilcock's strong recent form (25% SR) is encouraging. However, the combination of first-up (0% SR), no 800m experience, barrier 11 on a tight circuit, and poor last-start form creates substantial risk. The slow tempo forecast won't help a backmarker from the outside, and her first-up record suggests she needs a run.

Our price $5.00 · SP $4.20 · Gary Geran

Medical Autocrat presents as a value chance based on proven ability at this distance and class level, but carries significant fitness concerns. Won at Toowoomba BM58 over 1890m in January, demonstrating capability at this level and distance. Strong distance form (1-2-1 from 6 starts at 1900m) and dropping from BM68 to BM58 suggests class advantage. Jockey/trainer Geran combination has solid 14% strike rate and jockey is in strong recent form (25%). Soft-track record is mediocre (1-1 from 7). Needs to overcome fitness doubts and return to January form to be competitive. Barrier 5 provides tactical options but spell and form trend are significant negatives.

Our price $5.50 · SP $8.50 · Dale Smith

Won at this exact track/distance previously and has 1-1-1 record from 6 Kilcoy 1900m starts - clear course specialist. Strong soft-track form (1-4-3 from 27 starts) demonstrates wet-track competence. Blinkers reapplied is positive gear change that may sharpen performance. Dropping from BM65 to BM58 provides class edge. Consistent recent placings (4th, 6th, 7th) show reliability and current fitness. Main concerns are jockey Smith's poor Kilcoy record (0 from 33), 22-day gap, and lack of recent wins (last win February).

Our price $5.50 · SP $5.00 · Amelia Heinrich

Youmeanddupre represents the classic improver stepping up sharply in grade after a dominant maiden win. The 3yo gelding's soft track record is excellent relative to exposure, and the significant weight advantage (55kg vs 60kg top weight) is crucial. The major concern is the class jump from Maiden to Restricted 58, but the improving trajectory, proven wet track ability, and tactical barrier position justify the risk.

Our price $9.00 · SP $11.00 · Micheal Hellyer

The proven distance record (3:0-0-1 at 1500m) and ideal barrier draw (4) are significant positives in a race with no genuine speed. The Hellyer/Bobic combination has an 11% strike rate, and the jockey knows Kilcoy well.

Our price $6.50 · SP $9.00 · Kayla Johnston

The 244-day break is a concern, but the Birchley stable's patient approach and addition of ear muffs suggests targeted preparation. The 53kg weight is a major advantage, and her 100% Soft place rate, while from limited sample, aligns perfectly with today's conditions. The step to 1200m is untested but her pedigree (Jonker) suggests suitability.

Our price $10.00 · SP $7.00 · Micheal Hellyer

The second-up positioning after a 75-day break could see improvement, and the 55kg weight is competitive.

Our price $6.00 · SP $10.00 · Micheal Hellyer

Sapphire Reign appeals as a strong each-way proposition despite the class rise. Her Soft track credentials are excellent, with a last-start BM58 win on Soft 5 at Sunshine Coast demonstrating current form and surface suitability. The first-time blinkers application is a significant positive for a lightly-raced 3YO filly, often producing immediate improvement. Barrier 4 is ideal in the likely slow tempo scenario. The main concerns are the sharp class rise (Class 2 to BM65) and stepping up to 1200m for the first time. However, her breeding (Blue Point) suggests the distance extension is within range, and the Soft conditions will help her sustain.

Our price $7.00 · SP $9.50 · Bailie Baker

Embolden is a genuine Kilcoy specialist with an outstanding 67% strike rate at this venue, including a win at this exact track and distance two starts ago. Her Soft track form is solid (50% place rate), and the combination with jockey Bailie Baker, who excels at Kilcoy, is a significant positive. The last-start failure on Heavy 10 can be forgiven as the track was extreme, and today's Soft 5 is more suitable. The main concerns are the class rise from Restricted 55 to BM65 and the wide barrier, though the likely slow tempo mitigates the draw.

Our price $9.00 · SP $4.40

Barrier 1 is a significant advantage in the likely slow tempo, allowing him to control the race from the front. The consistent recent placings (three from last five) suggest he's racing well without winning. However, the absence of a confirmed jockey is a major red flag that reduces confidence significantly.

Our price $4.00 · SP $5.00 · Adam Sewell

Je Reve is the horse to beat. With a proven affinity for the Kilcoy 1200m (win and a close second from three attempts) and dropping from Class 1 to Restricted 55, he maps ideally to settle midfield and produce a sustained run. The second-up statistic is a minor concern, but the class dip and track familiarity outweigh that.