Kembla Grange tips and results

Our price $5.00 · SP $5.50 · Chad Lever

The Bjorn Baker stable excels with maidens, and the horse's trial win at Warwick Farm suggests improvement. His middle barrier draw provides tactical flexibility in a moderate tempo race. While jockey Chad Lever's recent form is concerning (5% strike rate), the Baker/Lever combination has been successful (23%).

Our price $5.00 · SP $13.00 · Grant Buckley

Yeszem is the most reliable form runner in this field, with a strong recent record including a 2nd at Kembla. The drop back to 1200m suits, and with consistent recent performances, she represents the most likely winner.

Our price $8.00 · SP $3.30 · Lee Magorrian

The Ric & Will Freedman stable excels with first-starters, and Lee Magorrian is riding in career-best form. His two barrier trials were solid, placing in both. Still, the stable's record commands respect.

Our price $5.00 · SP $9.50 · Christian Reith

I Am Overs maps perfectly from barrier 1, likely to lead or sit one-out-one-back, which is a major advantage at Kembla on Good ground. The step to 1600m is a query, but her pedigree and running style suggest she'll handle it. She's the most reliable chance in a moderate maiden.

Our price $6.50 · SP $4.00 · Grant Buckley

Leon Ruben has the best raw form in the race, having finished a close second over this C&D on May 16 and then a solid 5th at Illawarra from a wide gate. However, barrier 11 makes his task much harder at Kembla, where handy runners dominate. If he can get a good run midfield or closer, he's the likely winner. A risk worth taking each-way.

Our price $10.00 · SP $15.00 · Leeshelle Small

Ridgeback is an interesting roughie returning from a long break. He had two runner-up efforts from four starts, both on wet ground, but he has also placed on Good. His first-up record includes a second at Kembla, which is encouraging for today. The 3kg claim from apprentice Small brings his weight down to 56kg, attractive in a maiden.

Our price $3.20 · SP $3.70 · Keagan Latham

Emery presents as the most logical winner despite first-up concerns. While the 183-day break and lack of 1400m experience are concerns, her proven Good track ability (1 win, 2 placings from 7 starts) and the engagement of in-form Keagan Latham (20% recent strike rate) signal stable confidence. Her first-up record (1 place from 3) suggests she can be competitive fresh, and the class edge should prove decisive against this field.

Our price $8.00 · SP $15.00 · Mitch Stapleford

Her previous Class 1 win at Newcastle and track/distance placing demonstrate she can compete at this level. The barrier 1 draw is a major positive on Kembla's turning track, and being second up should see fitness improvement from her last-start 8th. While her recent form is concerning (no wins in 10 starts), the class relief and ideal map position make her a live roughie. The removal of winkers and light weight (54.5kg) add further appeal.

Our price $6.00 · SP $3.00 · Adrian Layt

First up from a 141-day spell with a competitive first-up record, he's proven at the distance and suited by the barrier for forward settling. The Layt/Bridge combination has a 100% strike rate (limited sample), and the moderate tempo should suit on-pace types. However, fitness after the long spell is a concern, and he's yet to win from 4 starts. The value proposition is strong given the barrier advantage and distance form, making him a solid each-way overlay despite the maiden status.

Our price $4.50 · SP $3.50 · Pierre Boudvillain

Today he drops significantly in weight (14kg less than last start) while stepping up to his preferred 2000m trip where he holds a solid record. The inside barrier (2) is crucial at Kembla Grange where top-three at the 400m is paramount. The gear change (tongue tie removed) suggests stable intent to improve.

Our price $5.50 · SP $7.50 · Jean Van Overmeire

Villa Castina is the most progressive runner in the field with an impressive last start win at Wyong over 2025m. The 3yo filly is lightly raced (13 starts) and clearly improving, having won two of her last four starts. Her Good track record (9:1-1-3) is solid and she's proven at the distance. The major concern is barrier 12 in a race where position at the 400m is critical. With no genuine leaders and a predicted slow tempo, she'll need to work hard early to secure a forward position. Van Overmeire's strong recent form (25% strike rate) is a positive, but the wide draw significantly reduces her winning chance despite excellent form credentials.

Our price $3.80 · SP $3.30 · Leeshelle Small

Mcadam presents as the most compelling winning chance based on pure form analysis. Three consecutive victories demonstrate clear upward trajectory, with the most recent BM64 win at this exact track and distance providing strong validation. The 1600m trip suits perfectly (2 wins from 3 starts), and Good track form is excellent (3-3-1). While stepping up in class and carrying top weight from a wide draw, the slow predicted tempo actually favours his backmarker pattern. The combination of proven course suitability, distance effectiveness, and current winning momentum outweighs class rise concerns.

Our price $9.00 · SP $6.50 · Lee Magorrian

I Am Brave returns from a lengthy spell but has shown ability fresh, winning her debut first-up. She draws ideally in barrier 6 and should be able to cross or sit handy. The moderate tempo suits her speed. Lee Magorrian is in career-best form.