Flemington tips and results

Our price $3.50 · SP $7.00 · Craig Williams

Portarlington presents as the most credentialed runner with Group 3 exposure and proven wet track ability. Last start second on Heavy 8 confirms genuine wet track ability. The inside barrier is crucial in a race with no genuine leaders and slow predicted tempo, allowing Williams to control from the front or settle handy. Second-up record (1-0-1) is strong, and the Craig Williams booking signals serious stable intent. While untried at Flemington and the distance, class and conditions suit perfectly.

Our price $8.00 · SP $11.00 · Craig Williams

Highland Blaze represents a strong each-way proposition despite the hurdles-to-flat transition. His overall soft-track record (4-5-2 from 20 starts) is superior to most rivals. The Craig Williams booking is a major positive—elite jockeys don't take these rides without stable confidence. The winkers reapplication suggests the stable has identified a winning formula. At 53kg from barrier 2, he has significant weight and positional advantages. While the hurdles-to-flat transition is a query, his proven stamina (up to 4200m) and wet-track proficiency make him a genuine threat.

Our price $3.20 · SP $4.40 · Luke Cartwright

Choir Point presents as the most reliable winning chance based on proven wet track ability and recent form. Her last start victory at Caulfield on Heavy 8 over 1100m demonstrates she handles these exact conditions. The barrier 7 draw allows her to settle midfield and finish strongly through the final 400m, which aligns perfectly with Flemington's soft track bias favouring horses positioned in the top tier by the 400m mark. Despite the jockey/trainer combination concern, her form profile significantly outweighs this negative.

Our price $7.00 · SP $9.00 · Beau Mertens

Jenni The Ninja represents an intriguing first-up proposition with a perfect fresh record and proven Flemington form. Her January victory at this track over 1100m demonstrates course suitability, while her soft track win at Pakenham confirms wet track ability. The 111-day spell is a concern, but her first-up statistics (1:1-0-0) and the strong Mertens/Bedggood combination provide confidence.

Our price $5.50 · SP $8.00 · Craig Williams

His debut victory on Heavy 9 at Bendigo over 1100m demonstrates both wet track ability and distance suitability. The 285-day spell is a major concern, but the engagement of Williams (21% strike rate with this stable) signals strong stable confidence in his fitness and ability. The barrier 4 draw is ideal for securing a forward position by the 400m mark, which is critical on soft Flemington. While the class rise from maiden to Open is substantial, his debut performance and the quality connections suggest he possesses untapped ability.

Our price $8.00 · SP $14.00 · Luke Nolen

The 40% win rate on soft tracks is elite, and last-start victory demonstrates current fitness. However, the class rise from BM70 country level to BM84 metro is substantial, and previous attempt at this level resulted in 9th placing. The barrier draw (6) is ideal for settling in the first half of the field, crucial given track bias favouring top-3 at 400m.

Our price $4.20 · SP $4.80 · Jamie Mott

The Mott/Smith combination is firing (50% strike rate together) and the mare's 45% career win rate demonstrates consistent ability. The lack of Flemington experience and moderate second-up record (0-2-0) add risk.

Our price $10.00 · SP $14.00 · Luke Cartwright

The mare's 50% first-up win/place rate is exceptional, and the addition of blinkers and tongue tie for the first time indicates connections expect sharp improvement. The 5kg weight drop to 52.5kg and good barrier 4 enhance her chances of securing an ideal forward position. However, the 125-day spell, poor soft track record (0-1-0 from 3), and class rise from BM78 to BM90 are significant concerns. Cartwright's poor recent form (5%) adds risk.

Our price $3.50 · SP $3.30 · Lachlan Neindorf

Won Listed race last start and boasts 50% second-up strike rate.

Our price $9.00 · SP $11.00 · Damien Thornton

Class rise is concern but won carrying 55kg in BM84, today carries 54kg in Open. Barrier 1 poor historically but fresh winner with momentum. Gear change (equicast on, concussion plates off) suggests stable confidence.

Our price $4.50 · SP $4.80 · Holly Durnan

Jimmy The Bear presents as the most reliable winning chance based on proven course/distance credentials and wet track form. His 2-1-1 record at Flemington 1620m is outstanding, and he's demonstrated soft/heavy track ability with 7 wins from 21 starts on rain-affected ground. Last start BM100 win at Caulfield Heavy 8 confirms current form and fitness. The slow tempo predicted suits his on-pace racing pattern, and barrier 1 allows tactical positioning despite minor bias concerns. While stepping up to Open class, his Listed/Group placings show he can compete at this level.

Our price $7.50 · SP $8.00 · Jabez Johnstone

The Listed placing at 1620m and Flemington win at 2000m show course/distance suitability, though the soft track record (0-1-0) is a concern. Barrier 3 and light weight (57.5kg) are significant advantages in a slow tempo race. The 125-day spell is lengthy, but his first-up record shows he can perform fresh. The trainer/jockey combination has a solid 25% strike rate.

Our price $4.00 · SP $5.50 · Jabez Johnstone

Kaleo comes off an impressive win in the same class over track and distance on heavy ground, carrying 53.5kg. With a similar light weight today and the same in-form jockey, he maps well to settle midfield and sustain his run through the long straight. He ticks the critical Flemington soft-track boxes: capable of being top three at the 400m and proven on rain-affected ground.

Our price $4.50 · SP $4.40 · Holly Durnan

Dirnaseer defeated this exact field last start at the track and distance on heavy ground, carrying 52.5kg. He returns with even lighter weight (53.5kg minus 3kg claim) and draws wide, which presents a tactical challenge at Flemington. However, he has shown early speed to cross from wide gates previously.

Our price $6.00 · SP $6.50 · Dean Yendall

Flying Done has been a consistent performer with two straight wins at 1600m on good ground before stepping up to Open class. His last-start fifth in the same race as the top picks was a fair effort, suggesting he's competitive at this level. Barrier 5 allows him to secure a prominent position without over-exerting early.