Belmont Park tips and results

Our price $3.00 · SP $2.30 · Clint Johnston-Porter

Proven at Belmont and showing excellent form progression. However, the complete lack of soft track experience (0:0-0-0) is a significant concern that prevents top selection. Barrier 7 in a slow tempo also presents tactical challenges. Strong winning chance if she handles the surface, but the soft track question mark is too significant to ignore.

Our price $4.50 · SP $4.40 · William Pike

The Pike factor is significant with the champion jockey's 20% Belmont strike rate and 14% combination with Grantham. Barrier 4 is ideal in a slow tempo race, allowing tactical positioning. However, first up from 140 days raises fitness concerns, and the gelding has never won in three starts. No soft track experience adds another unknown. Likely to run well but winning ability unproven.

Our price $6.50 · SP $7.50 · Brad Parnham

Value overlay based on soft track form and strong connections. The Morton/Parnham combination strikes at 18%, and the filly appears progressive. Each-way value for those seeking an upset chance with proven wet track form.

Our price $5.50 · SP $5.00 · Natika Riordan

Saturday Sesh comes off a confidence-boosting win at Kalgoorlie in BM70+ company, and the drop back to this restricted grade is a positive. His soft track form is excellent (43% wins). Barrier 4 is advantageous and he maps to be handy. The main concern is his lack of success at Belmont, but he has placed there and this may be his best chance.

Our price $10.00 · SP $9.00 · Zephen Johnston-Porter

Go Go Grommet is a proven performer on Soft ground at this trip and track. He won this exact class on May 16 and drops from Class 5, a substantial class advantage.

Our price $4.50 · SP $6.50 · Troy Turner

Baby Pearl presents as the most logical winner based on pure form analysis. Dropping from BM72+ after winning last start at this exact track and distance, the gelding has a perfect 2-from-3 record at Belmont 1000m. The class drop is significant, and while carrying 59kg (up 5kg), the weight is manageable given the grade reduction. Turner's recent form is a concern, but his 33% strike rate on this horse overrides that negative.

Our price $5.50 · SP $8.00 · Holly Nottle

Lord Shiva is the most consistent performer in this field with narrow defeats in his last two starts. The slight class drop from BM72+ to BM66+ should see him competitive, and Nottle's current form (20% strike rate) is a positive.

Our price $6.00 · SP $3.50 · William Pike

The engagement of William Pike is a strong positive, indicating stable confidence despite the top weight of 60.5kg. While the class drop from BM72+ to BM66+ is favorable, the weight burden is a genuine concern, particularly when conceding 3-3.5kg to the main dangers. The barrier 2 draw allows Pike to position him prominently.

Our price $5.50 · SP $13.00 · Holly Nottle

God's Grin presents as the standout value selection having won last start at this exact track and distance. The barrier 6 draw allows tactical flexibility in the expected slow tempo.

Our price $3.00 · SP $1.75 · William Pike

Pike's 40% strike rate on the horse and the blinkers-first-time gear change signal stable confidence. While form supports favouritism, the value lies elsewhere given winter volatility and weight concerns.

Our price $10.00 · SP $31.00 · Chanel Cooper

While the wide barrier 13 and unproven 1600m record (0 wins from 1 start) present concerns, her staying pedigree (won over 2200m) suggests the distance suits.

Our price $3.00 · SP $2.35 · William Pike

Western Jet presents the strongest winning profile. Elite jockey William Pike takes the mount from ideal barrier 3 with just 54.5kg. The progressive type is lightly raced (5 starts) and drops from Class 3, fitting the Belmont Soft profile of classy, in-form, lightly-raced runners. While limited experience is a minor concern, the proven suitability to today's conditions and elite connections justify favouritism.

Our price $8.00 · SP $7.50 · Zephen Johnston-Porter

Lanfranco offers significant class appeal dropping from Listed racing where he placed 3rd and 6th in recent starts. However, the complete absence of any soft track experience (0 starts on Soft) is a critical concern on today's Soft 5 surface. The jockey is also out of form (5% recent strike rate) and has never ridden this horse. Each-way saver only.

Our price $10.00 · SP $13.00 · Holly Nottle

The 3yo filly won last start at 1400m and drops back to 1300m, which may suit given her strong finishing style. The booking of in-form Holly Nottle (19% at Belmont, 100% record on this horse) from ideal barrier 8 with light 55kg is a significant positive.

Our price $8.00 · SP $6.00 · Steven Parnham

Spellborn showed promise with an Open win in April and a strong second on Soft6 at Belmont. However, his latest Listed assignment was disappointing (11th). He needs to bounce back but has the talent and a good jockey booking.

Our price $7.00 · SP $12.00 · Austin Galati

He won well over 2000m as a maiden and ran a strong second in a Rest 1 Metro Win last start, suggesting he's on an upward trajectory. The slow tempo and barrier 1 are ideal for his front-running style.

Our price $3.50 · SP $2.70 · Clint Johnston-Porter

In a race where soft-track form is critical, this is a major red flag. She's also unproven beyond 1600m, making the 2000m trip a significant query. Place chance only.

Our price $15.00 · SP $26.00 · Shaun Mc Gruddy

She's proven on soft ground with a second placing on Soft 6 last start and is lightly raced with an improving profile. The 2000m trip suits her staying pedigree (Dundeel) and recent 1600m form. However, the class rise from Class 3 to Listed is enormous, and jockey McGruddy's 2% Belmont strike rate is a major concern.

Our price $25.00 · SP $12.00 · Brad Parnham

The class rise from Rest 1 Metro Win to Listed is substantial, and she's never attempted 2000m. While the slow tempo and barrier 7 provide tactical advantages, her wet-track failure and class query make her vulnerable. Each-way chance only if the track dries significantly.

Our price $6.00 · SP $6.00 · Holly Nottle

Supersession arrives in peak form with two seconds in his last two starts at this course and distance, including a BM72+ placing last time. He handles soft ground adequately and is trained by the in-form Durrant yard. Holly Nottle's 22% strike rate with the stable is a positive. While his overall win rate is modest, his current consistency makes him a strong each-way chance.

Our price $12.00 · SP $19.00 · Steven Parnham

He has won on soft ground and showed good form earlier this year with three consecutive wins in similar grade. Steven Parnham gets on well with him (3 wins from 9). The fast tempo should allow him to run on from the back.