Flemington tips and results

Our price $3.50 · SP $6.50 · Harry Coffey

Vivid Storm is the standout selection based on proven winning form at the exact distance and conditions. In a shallow winter field of largely unproven types, actual winning form at 1200m on wet ground is the most reliable indicator.

Our price $8.00 · SP $12.00 · Lachlan Neindorf

The 181-day spell is a major concern first-up, though gear changes (blinkers off, ear muffs on) suggest stable seeking improvement. Small each-way interest only.

Our price $3.20 · SP $5.00 · Lachlan King

This colt boasts a perfect record on wet tracks (2 from 2 on Heavy) and won at this course last start over 1420m in Heavy 8 conditions. The slow tempo will suit his racing pattern, and barrier 1 allows tactical control.

Our price $5.00 · SP $8.50 · Harry Coffey

Fancify brings the strongest class credentials to this race as a Group 3 winner at this exact track and distance. Her Flemington 1400m record of 2 wins from 5 starts is excellent, and she's proven on soft ground with 2 wins and 3 placings from 8 attempts. In winter racing where fields are evenly matched, weight can be decisive. The 28-day gap and mixed recent form (including a 6th at Listed level) also raise questions about whether she's at her absolute peak.

Our price $7.00 · SP $12.00 · Daniel Stackhouse

As a Group 3 performer with a Listed placing, she has the class to compete in Open grade, and her 1400m record of 5 wins from 15 starts is solid. The Hayes stable has her racing consistently, and Stackhouse has won on her before. The main concern is her soft track form - only 1 win from 5 starts on rain-affected ground - and she's yet to win at Flemington from 2 attempts. On a track that plays fair in soft conditions, her class and current form make her a worthwhile value play, particularly if the tempo suits her finishing style.

Our price $7.00 · SP $13.00 · Jett Stanley

The Autumn Sun filly has won 2 from 6 with balanced soft track form (1-0-1), and the application of winkers for the first time signals stable confidence in her ability to handle this step-up. Her breeding (The Autumn Sun x Scarlet Dream) is ideal for the 2500m staying test, and she's shown quality placing in BM72 grade at Randwick. The 53kg weight is a significant advantage.

Our price $3.20 · SP $4.00 · Craig Williams

The form standout with a dominant Flemington record and a recent win in this exact Listed race. While carrying top weight and coming off a slightly disappointing 4th, the class edge is undeniable.

Our price $7.00 · SP $16.00 · Lachlan Neindorf

The value roughie with Group-placed credentials and positive first-up statistics. The 230-day spell is a massive concern, but the 3:1-0-1 fresh record suggests she can perform without a run. Blinkers ON for the first time after Group placings is a significant positive gear change that could unlock improvement. Small each-way saver only.

Our price $3.80 · SP $4.40 · Daniel Stackhouse

The Western Front presents as the most reliable winning chance based on proven class and form at this level. Unlike Vegas Jack, he's proven at genuine metro Open/Listed grade. His soft-track record (2-0-1) is excellent, and the step back from 3200m to 2600m should suit. While inconsistent, he has the class edge over this winter field and represents the safest winning option despite the wide draw.

Our price $5.00 · SP $4.20 · Craig Williams

Wuddzz is a proven wet-track specialist with an outstanding record on rain-affected going (7 wins from 27 soft/heavy starts). His last-start BM78 win at 2500m in Heavy 10 demonstrates current form and stamina, though the class rise to Open grade is significant. The Craig Williams booking is a major positive - he's riding at 25% strike rate and wouldn't take this mount without stable confidence. The light 53kg weight is ideal for a staying test, and his wet-track credentials are superior to most rivals. While the class rise is a concern, winter Open races are shallow and his wet-track ability gives him a genuine edge in Soft 7 conditions.

Our price $6.50 · SP $5.50 · Neil Farley

Now he faces genuine metro Open company carrying 3kg more (57kg) from a wide draw at his first attempt at 2600m. His wet-track record (4 from 6) is excellent and he's clearly in form, but the class rise is significant. In a stronger field this would be a major concern, but winter Open races are shallow and his current momentum may carry him through. Each-way value given the class question marks.

Our price $5.50 · SP $10.00 · Harry Coffey

The BM84 win at Sandown on Soft 6 was impressive, and his soft-track record (3-3-0) is strong. The light 55kg weight and inside barrier (4) are ideal for a staying test.

Our price $2.50 · SP $2.80 · Craig Williams

Al Duca presents the most compelling form profile for this Listed race. His narrow second at this exact venue, distance and track condition 13 days ago, combined with a 50% strike rate on soft tracks and proven 1600m ability, makes him the logical selection. Craig Williams' booking and barrier 2 provide tactical advantages in what shapes as a slow-tempo race.

Our price $5.50 · SP $5.50 · Jye McNeil

The 54kg weight and proven ability at this track/distance provide significant advantages.

Our price $6.00 · SP $7.50 · Jackson Radley

Seafall's last-start victory at this exact venue and conditions cannot be ignored, particularly given her exceptional 67% win rate at 1600m. The 54kg weight and proven soft track ability (50% win rate) are major positives. Her all-or-nothing race record (8 wins, 0 seconds) suggests she either wins or finishes well back.

Our price $10.00 · SP $21.00 · Kayla Crowther

The 54kg weight and proven jockey combination are positives. However, his lack of Flemington experience, poor soft track record (0 wins from 6), and wide barrier 13 are significant negatives.

Our price $5.00 · SP $11.00 · Jabez Johnstone

Afterberna presents as the strongest winning chance based on recent form and suitability. With a 50% win rate on soft tracks (4:2-0-1) and perfect 1200m credentials (6:3-0-1), she's ideally suited. The quick backup is a minor concern, but her rapid improvement trajectory and proven wet-track ability make her a standout.

Our price $6.50 · SP $5.00 · Harry Coffey

Barari's perfect 1200m record (4 wins from 4 starts) makes her a compelling proposition, especially given her course/distance win at Flemington last start. While the 27-day gap and class rise present concerns, her specialist credentials at this exact distance and proven Flemington form provide strong confidence.

Our price $4.50 · SP $6.00 · Luke Cartwright

The standout selection based on proven form at this exact track, distance and condition. Has excellent wet track credentials (7:2-3-1) and is proven at 1600m (5:1-2-0). While the quick backup is a minor concern, the horse is clearly suited to Flemington's long straight and handles soft ground expertly.

Our price $6.50 · SP $7.50 · Craig Williams

An interesting each-way proposition with the significant jockey upgrade to Craig Williams being the key positive. However, the soft track record is a genuine concern - has never won on anything other than good ground despite three attempts on soft. The form line through Obvious is clear, and while the jockey change is significant, it may not be enough to reverse that margin. Represents a solid each-way chance if the track doesn't deteriorate, but the wet track query prevents a stronger recommendation.

Our price $9.00 · SP $9.50 · John Allen

Crucially, this horse won at Flemington over 1600m on Heavy 8 just two starts ago, proving it can handle this exact setup. The last start 5th behind Obvious was disappointing, but forgive that run and the form prior is solid, including Group 2 placings. The inconsistency is a concern, but in a winter Open race where upsets are common, this represents genuine each-way value. The risk-reward ratio is favorable for a value play.