Belmont Park tips and results

Our price $3.30 · SP $3.10 · Holly Nottle

The most credible form line in the race. Slow tempo is the risk, but she made ground from the 800m to the 400m last start and Nottle rides Belmont at 16%.

Our price $7.00 · SP $17.00 · Chris Parnham

The value runner. Cawarra placed third beaten half a length in a Class 1 at Belmont over 1200m on Soft 5 in July - a line that matches today's conditions more precisely than anything else in the race - and holds one win, one second and one third from five soft-track starts. She maps to sit third off the lone leader, exactly the position Belmont's soft-track bias favours, with Chris Parnham back aboard for his own stable at 16%.

Our price $5.00 · SP $8.50 · Lucy Fiore

Second up with barrier 8 in the track's best draw band, and the projected very fast tempo with three leaders engaged is exactly the setup she needs. Winless in 11 starts and unplaced in two soft-track runs are the checks, but she is the best-placed closer at each-way value.

Our price $6.00 · SP $5.00 · J Whiting

Second up with a Belmont trial win, and gear that produced the improvement stays on.

Our price $4.50 · SP $6.50 · W Pike

Unraced but the proxy case is strong: the Williams stable with Pike aboard is a 21% combination and Pike is at 21% around Belmont. Absence of form is not a negative here, but the wide-ish gate and raw inexperience keep him just behind the top pick.

Our price $8.50 · SP $10.00 · Jarrad Noske

A lightly raced type going the right way. Second-up he should improve again and he trialled soundly on Soft 6.

Our price $7.50 · SP $4.40 · Lucy Fiore

The genuine overlay in the race. He has won two of his three barrier trials, one of them on a Soft 5 surface, which is exactly the wet-track proof Belmont winners skew towards. Lucy Fiore stays aboard and strikes at 30% for the stable and 18% around Belmont, from a handy barrier 2 with only 55.5kg.

Our price $6.50 · SP $8.00 · S Mc Gruddy

The most interesting improver in the race. Dropping to 1000m with a run under the belt and drawing barrier 4 gives her a handy, forward map on a track leaning to first-six runners. The jockey booking and unproven wet action temper enthusiasm, but the raw ability is evident.

Our price $7.50 · SP $9.00 · Lucy Fiore

His only race start was a greenly run Listed assignment at Ascot and he now drops enormously in class against rivals who are largely maiden-grade. The trials read well, including a win on Soft 7 and a solid hit-out on Soft 5 at 950m, which is the sort of wet evidence this Belmont profile rewards. Barrier one helps, but 60kg, first-up status and a likely rearward map keep him a value each-way play rather than a top-three selection.

Our price $4.50 · SP $6.00 · B Parnham

A genuine soft-track type on the way up. The class rise from Class 1 and the jockey change temper enthusiasm slightly, so he is taken to run a big race rather than to win outright.

Our price $4.20 · SP $3.30 · W Pike

Our price $4.20 · SP $3.80 · P Harvey

The most convincing recent performer.

Our price $9.00 · SP $21.00 · B Parnham

The forgotten runner of the race. The Belmont failure two starts back came with interference at the jump in a harder grade.

Our price $7.00 · SP $9.50 · Zephen Johnston-Porter

Grandad's Adiction is the standout overlay. He won over this exact track and distance only seven days ago and owns a strong Soft profile (1 win, 5 placings from 8). Drawn to settle on-pace from barrier 4 in a race that should not be run at breakneck speed.

Our price $3.20 · SP $3.80 · W Pike

Surround Me combines a proven Belmont Park Class 3 Soft 5 win with an outstanding overall wet-track record and a 100% placing rate at today's exact track/distance. A favourable barrier in the track's best-performing zone, plus a top rider in career-best form, reinforce the case.

Our price $4.00 · SP $2.60 · Natika Riordan

Radiant Light arrives off a Belmont Park win with an improving form trend and a strong overall record on soft going (75% place rate from 4 runs). Its on-pace racing style is well suited to the track's sprint bias, though barrier 9 is a mild concern given Belmont's barrier data favours 5-8 draws. Solid each-way claims behind the top selection.