Punt like a Pro, without the know!
New South Wales · Wednesday 9 September 2026
Our top pick won 2 of 7 races at Randwick Kensington. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
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Gentle Giant is the well-found on-pace type this track rewards. His debut fourth at Kembla was a big step forward on his trials, leading throughout and only weakening late over 1600m. From barrier 1 he should control a moderate tempo, and the Maurice pedigree suggests 1800m is a plus rather than a risk. Stable, rider and map all align.
Stitzer's Listed fourth is easily the best form here, but his first-up run was a genuine failure with no stewards excuse, his trial since was ordinary, and he must come from the tail from barrier 11 at a track that punishes backmarkers.
Royal Princess brings the most reliable staying form in the race, having run second at Newcastle over 1900m and second at Scone over 2200m in the past three weeks. She leads or sits outside the leader, which is the winning profile at Kensington.
Rouladen is the overlay in the race. He has finished second in four of six starts, and his last-start effort at Moruya came despite over-racing and interference. From barrier 4 he lands in the box seat behind Gentle Giant and Royal Princess, exactly where Kensington winners come from.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Gentle Giant | 1 | A Hyeronimus | G Waterhouse & A Bott | 59kg | $3.30 |
| 2nd | 7 | My Cartouche | 3 | Olivia Chambers | Craig Carmody | 54kg | $18.00 |
| 3rd | 5 | Wizard's Star | 5 | Braith Nock | Edward Cummings | 57.5kg | $13.00 |
| 4th | 10 | Stitzer | 10 | Zac Lloyd | John O'Shea & Tom Charlton | 55.5kg | $2.60 |
| 5th | 2 | Leon Ruben | 2 | J Penza | Ms D Poidevin-Laine | 59kg | $13.00 |
| 6th | 4 | Rouladen | 4 | Siena Grima | Mitchell Beer & George Carpenter | 57kg | $17.00 |
| 7th | 3 | Robbed By Rob | 7 | G Buckley | Sara Ryan | 59kg | $81.00 |
| 8th | 8 | Presumptuous Gal | 6 | A B Collett | David Pfieffer | 57kg | $9.00 |
| 9th | 6 | Heliconia | 8 | A Adkins | K J Parker | 57kg | $61.00 |
| 10th | 9 | Royal Princess | 9 | Mitch Stapleford | S I Singleton | 54kg | $9.00 |
| Scr | 11 | Bastianini | 9 | Zac Wadick | D J Hatch | 57kg |
Caviar is the form pick on a track where settling top-three is gold. Frankel breeding suggests 1550m brings further improvement, barrier 4 lets Hyeronimus hold a forward spot behind Cotoletta Cut, and the moderate tempo suits.
The concerns are the quick 6-day back-up, Collett's cold streak and whether a Snitzel colt runs a strong 1550m.
His first prep included a narrow Kembla second and a Kensington placing. The doubt is that he raced keenly last start and now goes to 1550m, which could see him overrace under a moderate tempo.
Cotoletta Cut is the value play because he is the horse most likely to control the race on a circuit where leaders are strongly favoured and backmarkers struggle. His debut Kembla third when sitting second was tidy, and second-up improvement from a Waller colt is expected.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4 | Wonka | 5 | J R Collett | C J Waller | 56.5kg | $4.20 |
| 2nd | 2 | Unhinged | 3 | J B Mc Donald | C J Waller | 57.5kg | $3.60 |
| 3rd | 3 | Cotoletta Cut | 6 | Tommy Berry | C J Waller | 56.5kg | $41.00 |
| 4th | 6 | True Tone | 7 | Siena Grima | C J Waller | 54kg | $5.50 |
| 5th | 8 | Bechers | 1 | Tyler Schiller | M, W & J Hawkes | 54kg | $8.50 |
| 6th | 9 | Zoudeadly | 2 | K Mc Evoy | Jason Warren | 54kg | $21.00 |
| 7th | 1 | Caviar | 4 | A Hyeronimus | G Waterhouse & A Bott | 59kg | $3.60 |
| Scr | 5 | Power Broker | 6 | Edward O'Rourke | 56kg | ||
| Scr | 7 | Over The Mountain | 7 | Dylan Gibbons | John O'Shea & Tom Charlton | 55kg |
The class drop is enormous and the stable excels first up. Short but the most likely winner by a clear margin.
Threads is a reliable placegetter who keeps finding one or two better. The drop to 1150m helps a colt who races keenly. A solid place proposition rather than a confident winner.
Proxy evaluation for a debutant leans on Waller, McDonald and a solid trial record, and all three tick. The concern is the map: from barrier 8 she is expected to settle near the rear on a circuit that strongly punishes backmarkers. Genuine place chance with win claims if she can muster more early speed than the map suggests.
The clear overlay in the race. She settles midfield rather than at the back, which keeps her within striking range on this position-dependent circuit. The Waller polish and Tommy Berry engagement add confidence.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Threads | 4 | N Rawiller | C Maher | 57kg | $5.50 |
| 2nd | 7 | Low Key | 2 | Tim Clark | G Waterhouse & A Bott | 55kg | $1.45 |
| 3rd | 6 | I Am Justice | 5 | C Schofield | C Maher | 55kg | $13.00 |
| 4th | 8 | Movie Star | 7 | Tommy Berry | C J Waller | 55kg | $14.00 |
| 5th | 9 | Rocks Or Diamonds | 3 | J R Collett | J G Sargent | 55kg | $19.00 |
| 6th | 1 | Bound For Pattaya | 6 | A Adkins | C Karakatsanis | 57kg | $151.00 |
| 7th | 2 | Naval Fleet | 1 | Tyler Schiller | M, W & J Hawkes | 57kg | $11.00 |
| Scr | 4 | Darn You | 9 | S Clipperton | Peter Snowden | 55kg | |
| Scr | 5 | Fiaba | 8 | J B Mc Donald | C J Waller | 55kg |
His soft-track record is strong and his first-up 3rd at Warwick Farm over 1400m from a wide gate was a solid trial for this distance rise. From barrier 4 he should settle on-pace in a slow-tempo race, the profile winning at this track.
His last-start 2nd at Warwick Farm in BM72 company on soft ground with first-time blinkers was sound and the step to 1800m suits his Dundeel breeding. James McDonald sticks and the horse remains lightly raced with upside. The concern is the widest barrier at a track where mid draws underperform, plus he has not yet won above BM64.
Pierro Lad brings the best current form with three wins on end, capped by a BM72 win at Canterbury on Soft 7. He draws barrier 1 and races on-pace, which suits both the inside and forward biases at this track. Kathy Latham is in strong form and has won twice on him.
The weight rise and moderate jockey/trainer strike rate temper confidence, but the map, class relief and upward trajectory make him the most likely winner.
She won over 1800m on Soft 6 at Hawkesbury last start and all three career wins have come around this trip. She drops to 56.5kg with Tommy Berry riding for the Waller stable. The obvious negative is her backmarking style at a track where backmarkers have not won under the current bias, and the slow tempo will not help.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5 | Columbus | 8 | J B Mc Donald | L J Bridge | 59kg | $2.30 |
| 2nd | 6 | My Charm | 7 | Tommy Berry | C J Waller | 56.5kg | $21.00 |
| 3rd | 10 | Supreme Sovereign | 2 | Zac Lloyd | C J Waller | 55kg | $4.60 |
| 4th | 3 | Pierro Lad | 1 | K S Latham | C Maher | 60kg | $6.00 |
| 5th | 8 | Andron | 6 | Dylan Gibbons | M, W & J Hawkes | 55kg | $21.00 |
| 6th | 2 | Mazis | 4 | Braith Nock | Annabel & Rob Archibald | 59.5kg | $4.40 |
| 7th | 1 | Funchal | 3 | C Schofield | M Price & M Kent Jnr | 61kg | $18.00 |
| 8th | 9 | Behtar | 5 | Ms C Keatings | N J Olive | 52kg | $151.00 |
| Scr | 4 | Anthracite | 3 | A Adkins | Joseph Pride | 59.5kg | |
| Scr | 7 | Fay's Angels | 9 | Ms K Owen | 55.5kg |
She has run 2-2-1 in BM72 over 1550-1600m in her last three, including a narrow second at this track and distance, and her last-start win came leading with blinkers on. Barrier 2 and a forward pattern fit the Kensington on-pace profile.
Pierata's Gem keeps finding the placings without winning, but her recent form against BM78 fields at Rosehill and a close second over 1550m at Canterbury last start reads well for this drop back to BM72. Barrier 3 and a handy pattern map ideally for Kensington.
Stallone is preferred to Koolibah for third because he is fit, in form and maps forward on a track that has rewarded on-pace runners. His three wins from four on Good ground stand out, and the drop from 61kg to 57kg helps offset the class rise.
She draws barrier 1, carries 54kg and maps to lead or trail on a track where leaders have won a third of races. The jockey form and low win strike are why she is a small each-way play only.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 10 | Darn Cute | 1 | Ms W Costin | Craig Carmody | 54kg | $41.00 |
| 2nd | 3 | Koolibah | 8 | J B Mc Donald | C J Waller | 58kg | $6.50 |
| 3rd | 9 | Aura | 4 | Dylan Gibbons | M, W & J Hawkes | 55kg | $12.00 |
| 4th | 1 | Nkosi | 6 | Shannen Llewellyn | C Maher | 58kg | $31.00 |
| 5th | 2 | Deep Pleasure | 2 | Zac Lloyd | M Price & M Kent Jnr | 60.5kg | $1.80 |
| 6th | 6 | Pierata's Gem | 3 | Tommy Berry | Annabel & Rob Archibald | 56.5kg | $5.00 |
| 7th | 7 | King Of Dragons | 9 | Rachel King | Matthew Dale | 56kg | $12.00 |
| 8th | 8 | Waku Waku | 5 | Braith Nock | Annabel & Rob Archibald | 54.5kg | $21.00 |
| 9th | 4 | Zamborghini | 7 | Zac Wadick | D J Hatch | 55.5kg | $41.00 |
| Scr | 5 | Stallone | 9 | K Mc Evoy | Bjorn Baker | 57kg |
Cafe Au Lait holds the most reliable form reference in the race, running second in a BM72 at Canterbury over this exact distance after striking interference at the start, and she beat Sphere in that race.
She draws inside and should be top-three at the 400m on a circuit where that position is decisive.
Sphere is the value runner because her racing pattern is the one the Kensington data rewards most. Last start she ran third in a BM72 over this distance despite being caught wide without cover, so a softer trip on the rail can see her hold on for a place at least.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 7 | Regal Problem | 6 | Tyler Schiller | Joseph Pride | 58kg | $1.80 |
| 2nd | 1 | Titanium Miss | 2 | Shannen Llewellyn | T J Bartley | 58.5kg | $31.00 |
| 3rd | 6 | Live | 5 | Tim Clark | Peter Snowden | 58kg | $9.00 |
| 4th | 3 | Kirribilli | 1 | Rachel King | Bjorn Baker | 59kg | $13.00 |
| 5th | 11 | Sphere | 4 | Zac Lloyd | C J Waller | 56kg | $8.00 |
| 6th | 8 | Varuni | 3 | Dylan Gibbons | Annabel & Rob Archibald | 58kg | $15.00 |
| 7th | 4 | Cafe Au Lait | 7 | J B Mc Donald | C J Waller | 58.5kg | $4.40 |
| 8th | 2 | Zip On By | 8 | Mollie Fitzgerald | Ms K Gavenlock | 58kg | $101.00 |
| Scr | 5 | De Armas | 10 | Siena Grima | C J Waller | 56.5kg | |
| Scr | 9 | Twinkling Star | 8 | J R Collett | Matthew Vella | 57.5kg | |
| Scr | 10 | Uncertain Glory | 9 | Tommy Berry | Michael Freedman | 55kg |
Komodo Dragon overcame a bad start to run second at Canterbury last start, finishing ahead of Rivendell, Unstopabull and Harry's Evidence. He is second up with a 1 from 1 record at that stage, has placed at Kensington on Good ground and maps to sit on or near the speed where the positional bias is strongest. The wide gate is the only real knock but two genuine leaders only gives him a workable map. Most likely winner.
The switch back to Good 4 with James McDonald engaged is a significant upgrade. He can settle midfield to handy from barrier 6 and his Listed placing shows class above this grade. Clear second pick with upside if the track dries as expected.
Better Late is the map play. He is the predicted leader from barrier 3 at a track where on-pace runners hold a strong positional edge and only Komodo Dragon offers genuine pressure. His last-start all-the-way win at Beaumont was authoritative and he carries just 57kg. The step up to metro BM72 is a legitimate query given previous Rosehill efforts, and the jockey's Kensington record is poor, so he is a place-only proposition.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 7 | Komodo Dragon | 7 | Zac Lloyd | John O'Shea & Tom Charlton | 58.5kg | $2.50 |
| 2nd | 10 | Siragusa | 1 | Tom Sherry | Annabel & Rob Archibald | 57kg | $5.50 |
| 3rd | 4 | Unstopabull | 4 | N Rawiller | C J Waller | 60kg | $10.00 |
| 4th | 1 | Verbil | 3 | Mollie Fitzgerald | Annabel & Rob Archibald | 59.5kg | $18.00 |
| 5th | 5 | Rivendell | 5 | J B Mc Donald | Peter Snowden | 59.5kg | $3.00 |
| 6th | 12 | A Pound Of Salt | 6 | Tyler Schiller | T S Howlett | 55.5kg | $81.00 |
| 7th | 3 | Tough Guy | 2 | Siena Grima | Melissa Dennett | 59kg | $8.50 |
| Scr | 2 | Hanau | 8 | William Stanley | M S Minervini | 60kg | |
| Scr | 6 | Harry's Evidence | 6 | C Schofield | G Ryan & S Alexiou | 58.5kg | |
| Scr | 8 | Better Late | 3 | Ashley Morgan | Nathan Doyle | 57kg | |
| Scr | 9 | Royal Corporal | 9 | J R Collett | Richard Litt | 57kg | |
| Scr | 11 | Demmo Dermy | 10 | Braith Nock | Edward Cummings | 55kg |
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