Belmont Park tips and results

Our price $4.00 · SP $2.80 · Brad Parnham

The tongue tie and third-up-style fitness add upside. Solid at the placings rather than a confident win play.

Our price $7.00 · SP $11.00 · Steven Parnham

The concern is the barrier reversal - gate 1 became gate 7 - which makes his run less certain on a track rewarding forward position.

Our price $6.00 · SP $14.00 · Holly Watson

Lake Baikal is the only horse in the race that has actually won, doing so first up at Northam on Good 4 and posting 1:1-0-0 on this surface. The Russian Camelot pedigree points to the 1400m being a positive rather than a query, and barrier 4 gives him the tactical position Belmont Good ground rewards.

Our price $4.60 · SP $5.50 · Steven Parnham

Swingman is second up, and his second-up record reads 2 starts for 2 wins. The 56kg with barrier 2 gives him the softest map in the race, and Parnham has won 3 of 7 on him. His 1000m record of 5: 0-4-0 is the obvious flaw — plenty of placings, no win — so he is a strong each-way rather than outright proposition.

Our price $7.00 · SP $14.00 · Holly Nottle

Her track and distance record of 7: 2-1-1 and Good track record of 26:5-2-3 confirm the setup suits, and Holly Nottle — aboard for both of her best runs this campaign — returns. From barrier 5 she should land on speed, the profile Belmont rewards, making her clear each-way value.

Our price $3.20 · SP $8.00 · Lucy F Fiore

Her Group 3 win and Listed win this prep are a tier above anything else engaged, and she is unbeaten in her single starts at both 1400m and Belmont Park. Fiore, riding at 30% recently and 20% for Morton, retains the ride, and barrier 4 lets her take the forward position this track demands on Good ground. Fresh is no barrier with 1 win and 1 second from 3 first-up runs.

Our price $4.50 · SP $5.00 · Natika Riordan

The strongest recent formline in the race. Eight starts at 1400m have produced 2 wins, 2 seconds and 2 thirds, and her Good-track record of 6 wins from 23 is the most proven in the field. The jockey booking is the clear query against a strong all-round profile.

Our price $3.60 · SP $7.00 · Lucy F Fiore

The strongest class and distance credential in the race. Eternal Romance has already won an Open-class 2100m at Belmont Park and ran second in Open grade at Ascot over 2200m, form comfortably superior to anything else engaged here. She returns from a Class 3 win at Northam eight days ago, so fitness is proven, and today represents a significant grade drop. Barrier 6 lets Fiore, who is riding at 30% over her last 20, settle in the first half and be within striking range at the 400m - exactly the winning Belmont Good-track profile.

Our price $4.20 · SP $3.20 · Cassey Martinan

He is fit, improving and well ridden by Martinan, who strikes at 18% here. The reservations are legitimate rather than cosmetic: barrier 11 and no early speed risk a wide or deep position at the 400m, which is the opposite of the Belmont Good-track winning profile, and 2100m is 400m beyond anything he has attempted.

Our price $8.50 · SP $10.00 · Brandon Louis

The value angle is tactical. This race has no genuine leader and a slow tempo is forecast, and Pointless Praise is the one runner mapped to lead. From barrier 7 he can cross and control, which at Belmont on Good ground is the most rewarded shape.

Our price $4.50 · SP $10.00 · Brad Parnham

The most progressive runner in the race. That was her second win in a row and only her fourth career start. She drops 2.5kg, keeps a forward map from barrier 6 and steps up to 1300m off a strong sprint form line.

Our price $7.50 · SP $21.00 · Jason Whiting

The best-credentialled runner at today's specific track and trip: five starts at Belmont over 1650m have produced a win, two seconds and a third. He is fit off a Class 3 win here carrying 59.5kg and now gets in with 55kg, a substantial 4.5kg turnaround. Barrier 5 maps him midfield with cover, ideal on a Good Belmont surface that rewards runners inside the first six at the 400m.

Our price $11.00 · SP $26.00 · Holly Nottle

His Belmont record reads 21 starts for 4 wins and he has won one of his two attempts at 1650m. Nottle rides at a 16% clip here.

Our price $4.20 · SP $5.50 · Clint Johnston-Porter

The strongest profile match for the Belmont Good-track pattern. Barrier 3 lets him take a forward, economical spot in a slow-run race.

Our price $3.40 · SP $2.40 · Patrick Carbery

Lillian is clearly progressive with 6 wins from 14 starts and a good-track record of 8:5-2-0, and the 5kg drop after winning under 59.5kg last start is a genuine positive.

Our price $6.50 · SP $5.00 · Holly Nottle

The most reliable runner in the race and a perfect fit for the Belmont Good-track winner profile. He steps up to a trip he has already won over, draws to settle in the first six at the 400m and carries a light 55.5kg.

Our price $5.00 · SP $8.00 · Brad Parnham

The most complete Belmont Good-track profile in the race. His Good track record reads 4 starts for 3 wins and his track-and-distance record 3 starts for 2 wins and a third. Barrier 4 and genuine tactical speed put him inside the first six at the 400m, exactly the winning shape at this venue.

Our price $4.00 · SP $2.90 · Lucy F Fiore