Caulfield tips and results

Our price $5.50 · SP $9.50 · Emily Pozman

Markdel is the most complete form horse. He won over this exact course, distance and rain-affected going on July 11 in Bench. He now drops a grade while those rivals rise on the scale, giving him a substantial relative-weights edge. A 36% career strike rate, 2 wins from 3 soft-track starts and a 1-from-1 track-and-distance record fit the Caulfield winner profile of class, distance form and recent form. Barrier 5 lets him settle midfield-forward.

Our price $3.20 · SP $3.70 · Craig Williams

The most credible form horse. Two Caulfield 2000m starts have produced two wins, both under Craig Williams, and his soft-ground record reads 5:2-2-0 with a Heavy 8 win here in May. First-up record of 3:0-2-0 means he runs well fresh without winning, and 60.5kg is a genuine test, but class, track-and-distance evidence and the jockey booking justify top billing.

Our price $5.00 · SP $4.40 · Jabez Johnstone

The most reliable profile in the race. Amleto won over this precise course and distance on Soft 6 three weeks ago in Bench 84 company, and his track-and-distance record is 3 starts for a win and two seconds. Last five starts of 2-2-1-2-1 confirm a horse holding form, and a wet record of 6:1-3-1 on Soft suits. He drops in grade today. The 3kg rise on his winning weight and a modest jockey record at Caulfield keep him just behind the top pick.

Our price $8.00 · SP $14.00 · Jett Stanley

That was a clear step up on his prior form and he now meets easier company. His soft record of 2 starts for 2 seconds shows he handles the ground without having won on it, and barrier 6 gives Stanley an economical trip.

Our price $13.00 · SP $41.00 · Adam Mc Cabe

Shultzy's last three runs read 1-2-1 including a 2400m win at Sandown carrying 60kg, and he drops 3.5kg today with barrier 4 on a track where inside gates help. His wet record is extensive — 20 Soft starts for 3 wins and 5 placings plus 11 Heavy starts for a win and 5 placings.

Our price $4.20 · SP $3.80 · Jabez Johnstone

Today she drops to 51.5kg via Johnstone's claim, draws barrier 6 and maps to be handy - precisely the profile Caulfield on Soft rewards. Class rise is the risk, but the weight and trajectory outweigh it.

Our price $7.00 · SP $5.50 · Emily Pozman

The wet-track and distance specialist of the field. Silent Shares has won three of seven at 1400m with three thirds from the balance, and her soft record of three wins from eight starts is the best proven wet profile here.

Our price $8.00 · SP $12.00 · Blake Shinn

Illyivy is the only runner in the field with a win at Caulfield over 1400m on soft going, and her soft record of one win and two seconds from three starts stands up.

Our price $3.30 · SP $4.00 · Jabez Johnstone

The most complete profile in the race. Duchess Zou has won 6 of 13 starts, 5 of 7 on Soft going and 4 of 5 around the 1400m trip - the exact triple of distance form, wet form and class that Caulfield Soft winners carry. Barrier 6 gives her the handy position that converts at ~15% here, and Johnstone knows her.

Our price $6.50 · SP $5.50 · Damian Lane

Barrier 5 and Damian Lane give him every chance to take the handy spot Caulfield rewards.

Our price $8.00 · SP $15.00 · Jackson Radley

The best value in the race. She has placed in all three first-up runs, handles Soft going with 2 wins from 5, and gets in light at 54.5kg.

Our price $3.00 · SP $2.35 · Mark Zahra

The most credentialled runner and the one the map suits best. With only one genuine leader identified and a slow tempo forecast, Zahra can use him early from gate nine and hold the prominent spot Caulfield on Soft rewards. The soft ground is unproven but his one wet run came from barrier 14 in Group 1 grade and is easily excused.

Our price $5.00 · SP $8.00 · Declan Bates

The class horse of the race on earnings and the most proven wet-track sprinter engaged. Barrier 2 gives Bates the option to be handy in a slow-tempo race. The gear change and 131-day freshen are the queries, and the query on distance is untested, hence each-way rather than win.

Our price $5.50 · SP $6.00 · Lachlan Neindorf

The doubts are genuine though - no wet-track experience at all, 152 days between runs, and a map that leaves him needing to make ground in a slowly run 1100m at a track where deep runners win only about 4%. Place value.

Our price $11.00 · SP $18.00 · Michael Dee

Alone among the main chances he is race-fit rather than first-up or resuming, drawn barrier 4 with only 56kg. Each-way overlay.

Our price $9.00 · SP $14.00 · Craig Williams

The most reliable wet-track performer in the field on raw evidence — three starts, three on Soft, never out of the placings, and a last-start Flemington win. Craig Williams is riding at 40% over his last 20 and knows her from the winning ride.

Our price $16.00 · SP $91.00 · Ben Allen

The inside gate maps her to the prominent spot that Caulfield rewards most, and the step to 1100m looks a positive for a Kingman filly who is improving each run.

Our price $8.50 · SP $12.00 · Jamie Melham

The most underestimated runner on raw numbers. She has won all four starts at Caulfield over 1400m and 5 of 8 at the trip overall, with 4 wins from 7 on soft ground.

Our price $4.60 · SP $6.00 · Mark Zahra

His Caulfield 1200m record reads 3 starts for 2 wins and a second, the strongest track-and-distance profile in the field. Zahra retains from barrier 6, which maps him prominent by the 400m — the key Caulfield Soft signal.

Our price $6.50 · SP $11.00 · Jye McNeil

The most progressive profile in the race, a five-year-old with 7 wins from 19 starts and a 37% strike rate. Gate one at Caulfield guarantees him a prominent, economical run, which is exactly the profile that wins here on Soft.

Our price $9.00 · SP $16.00 · Damien Thornton

With only 8 career starts he fits the progressive Caulfield Soft winner profile perfectly, carries the 54kg minimum and maps to be prominent from barrier 7 — the strongest positional signal here.

Our price $6.00 · SP $3.40 · Jabez Johnstone

By some way the classiest runner here, a Group 1 winner on Soft 7 who won a Group 3 over this exact 1600m at Caulfield in February off barrier 10. Class over wet pedigree is the Caulfield Soft winner profile and he has both. Barrier 5 lets him take a prominent spot in a slow-tempo race. The 124-day freshen and 60kg are the offsets, and his first-up record of 1 win from 6 means he may need the run, so place cover is prudent.

Our price $8.00 · SP $6.50 · Blake Shinn

Eleven starts have produced five wins, and her Group 3 win at Rosehill on Soft 6 under 58kg was strong. Her last run over 3200m in a Group 1 is easily forgiven on trip. First up from a spell with no fresh win is the risk, so each-way is the sensible structure.