Punt like a Pro, without the know!
Queensland · Saturday 15 August 2026
Our top pick won 2 of 6 races at Roma. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
top pick wonanother tip wonno tip won
Matchsticks is the clearest form and map fit. Big class drop into a weak BM55, drawn to lead on a circuit that heavily rewards top-three at the 400m, and partnered by the meeting’s hottest rider. Soft-track wins are a mild query on Good 4, but the overall package and Roma positional bias make her the most likely winner.
The last-start flop is a concern, yet the class drop and on-pace map give her every chance to bounce back.
Victorian visitor brings the strongest overall formlines and lands barrier 1. Worth including for the place but not the win primary.
Jigadee is the value runner. Each-way appeal in a volatile BM55.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4 | Matchsticks | 3 | Scott Sweedman | Ben Waldron | 60.5kg | $2.15 |
| 2nd | 2 | Lunessa | 5 | Kayla Barker | Rebecca Kerwin | 60kg | $3.50 |
| 3rd | 3 | Torvecchio | 4 | Reece O'Connell | Bob Davis | 59kg | $5.00 |
| 4th | 1 | Manhattan Thunder | 1 | Hayley Saunders | L F Mawn | 61.5kg | $4.00 |
| 5th | 6 | Storm Dreamer | 2 | Sophie Wilcock | W P Baker | 59kg | $51.00 |
| Scr | 5 | Jigadee | 6 | Glenn Richardson | 59kg |
Willbeking holds the strongest pure form case in a weak maiden. Recent Roma seconds and thirds over sprint trips, combined with a forward map into a moderate tempo, align perfectly with the track's dominant top-three-at-400m bias.
Barrythebarbaric brings reliable recent form with a Roma fourth and Injune second. Barrier two and first-time winkers give him every chance to settle handy on a forward-biased track. As a progressive 3yo he holds upside on the exposed older maidens and maps better than most for the short Roma home straight.
Sudden Strike earns the third spot via map and draw rather than raw form. Barrier one is a major asset at Roma where early position dominates. Prior local fourth and low weight keep him in the mix if he can bounce from the Toowoomba flop, though overall consistency remains modest in this high-variance maiden.
Nythe is the value overlay.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Nythe | 6 | Darren Evans | Mark Patterson | 60.5kg | $5.00 |
| 2nd | 4 | Mishpat | 7 | Reece O'Connell | Bob Davis | 56.5kg | $4.00 |
| 3rd | 7 | Barrythebarbaric | 2 | Paul Hamblin | Jon Taylor | 58kg | $5.00 |
| 4th | 3 | Willbeking | 5 | Cheryl Rogers | Ms C Rogers | 60.5kg | $3.90 |
| 5th | 2 | Sudden Strike | 1 | William Galloway | W P Baker | 56.5kg | $3.50 |
| 6th | 6 | Villicon | 4 | Todd Banks | Monique Gavin | 58.5kg | $51.00 |
| Scr | 5 | Stylish Angel | 3 | Sophie Wilcock | W P Baker | 58.5kg |
Thirteenth Man is the clearest form horse: won Roma BM60 over 1640m last start and the prior run, carries only 54kg and maps on-pace on a forward-biased circuit. Slow tempo and Roma’s top-three-at-400m bias suit.
Roma favours chalk and on-pacers, so he is the main danger. Slightly short of fair value versus Thirteenth Man’s fresher winning form here.
Best of the rest on class and local credentials. Drops from BM70, draws barrier 1 and has won at Roma over this trip. Needs to use the gate to get handy under the big weight; if he does, he is a genuine place/win chance in a volatile BM60.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Shoalwater Bay | 5 | Kayla Barker | Bevan Johnson | 61.5kg | $3.00 |
| 2nd | 5 | Al Ash Lad | 4 | Todd Banks | Monique Gavin | 56.5kg | $11.00 |
| 3rd | 7 | Hi Frank | 6 | Reece O'Connell | Jon Taylor | 54kg | $10.00 |
| 4th | 9 | Prince Carlos | 7 | Damien Boutet | Ms C Rogers | 56kg | $91.00 |
| 5th | 4 | Thirteenth Man | 8 | William Galloway | R W Connolly | 54kg | $4.20 |
| 6th | 8 | Rangi Toa | 3 | Darren Evans | Ms C Rogers | 56kg | $41.00 |
| 7th | 1 | Lip Sip Suk | 1 | Isabel Jessop | Jon Taylor | 62.5kg | $4.60 |
| 8th | 6 | Bugden | 9 | Hayley Saunders | M W Goodwin | 53kg | $7.50 |
| 9th | 3 | Scotland | 2 | Paul Hamblin | James Baker | 61kg | $12.00 |
Clear form horse at the grade with a genuine 1000m winning and placing sequence. Despite a midfield map on a forward-biased track, his recent competitiveness and fitness edge make him the most likely winner in a volatile Rest 50.
Big class drop into a soft Rest 50 with the meeting’s in-form rider aboard. Maps a touch awkwardly but the grade relief and connections lift him firmly into calculations.
Deserves respect as the last-start Roma winner and sole recent winner in the race.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Pee Dee | 9 | Reece O'Connell | Ms J Farley | 59.5kg | $3.60 |
| 2nd | 6 | Pontoon Prince | 7 | William Galloway | William Pugsley | 57kg | $2.90 |
| 3rd | 7 | Savvy Song | 5 | Kayla Barker | Greer Doig | 58.5kg | $6.00 |
| 4th | 4 | Quarter Red | 4 | Scott Sweedman | Ben Waldron | 61.5kg | $6.50 |
| 5th | 10 | Sweet About Me | 2 | Girish Goomany | Colin Storch | 58kg | $41.00 |
| 6th | 1 | Jigadee | 6 | Paul Hamblin | Glenn Richardson | 62kg | $13.00 |
| 7th | 2 | Destiny Gungho | 1 | Damien Boutet | Mel Birt | 61.5kg | $91.00 |
| 8th | 9 | Laid Back Bon | 8 | Hayley Saunders | Greer Doig | 55kg | $51.00 |
| 9th | 5 | Stylish Joker | 3 | Isabel Jessop | Greer Doig | 59.5kg | $9.00 |
| 10th | 8 | Sir Occy | 10 | Sophie Wilcock | W P Baker | 58.5kg | $21.00 |
Ivory Frost is the clear form horse after two authoritative Roma wins over 1000m. Distance query and class rise are real but her progressive profile and track dominance make her the most likely winner in this volatile Class 2.
Revantas maps to control or share the lead which is the decisive advantage at Roma. Top weight is the main query but his on-pace profile fits the track perfectly for a strong place or win threat.
Lady Dutton produced her best recent effort when second at this track and trip a fortnight ago. The big weight drop to 54kg and proven 1200m form keep her in the finish. Wide gate is a negative on this forward-biased circuit but she remains a clear top-three chance if she can find a midfield spot.
Spirit Of Nurai is overpriced given the perfect inside alley at a track that heavily rewards early position. Blinkers return and a slow tempo give her every chance to settle handy.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 8 | Lady Dutton | 9 | Kayla Barker | G L Bignell | 54kg | $4.20 |
| 2nd | 6 | Ivory Frost | 3 | Scott Sweedman | Ben Waldron | 59kg | $2.50 |
| 3rd | 1 | Revantas | 7 | Paul Hamblin | Patrick Sexton | 62kg | $2.90 |
| 4th | 9 | Dun With Roses | 8 | Darren Evans | Mark Patterson | 56kg | $41.00 |
| 5th | 7 | For The Brave | 6 | Sophie Wilcock | S K Iverson | 56kg | $12.00 |
| 6th | 5 | Titahi Bay | 4 | Todd Banks | Monique Gavin | 60kg | $21.00 |
| 7th | 4 | Spirit Of Nurai | 1 | Hayley Saunders | M W Goodwin | 58kg | $21.00 |
| 8th | 3 | Hoffman | 5 | Damien Boutet | Mel Birt | 61kg | $26.00 |
| 9th | 2 | Talma I Love Her | 2 | William Galloway | W P Baker | 58kg | $31.00 |
Peshwa is the clear form horse after winning the Roma Open over this trip a fortnight ago. The drop to BM70 is decisive and Sweedman’s local strike rate is outstanding. Despite the big weight he maps to settle in the first three, which is critical at Roma. Hard to beat on pure form and map.
Distance form is excellent and he handles Good ground well. Maps to sit midfield-handy which is workable if the tempo stays slow. Main danger if Peshwa is vulnerable under the big weight.
Terambi is the map horse. Roma’s fierce on-pace bias makes the leader extremely hard to run down in a slow-tempo 1200m. His track-and-distance record is outstanding and he was only just beaten last start. Ideal candidate to control and kick.
Drawn perfectly to take a sit on the speed in a race that heavily favours the first three at the 400m.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Peshwa | 7 | Scott Sweedman | Ben Waldron | 71.5kg | $3.50 |
| 2nd | 2 | Transceltic | 6 | William Galloway | William Pugsley | 59.5kg | $4.80 |
| 3rd | 8 | Born Fearless | 9 | Sophie Wilcock | W P Baker | 56.5kg | $3.40 |
| 4th | 7 | A Lot Of Booty | 4 | Todd Banks | W P Baker | 56.5kg | $26.00 |
| 5th | 5 | Terambi | 8 | Paul Hamblin | Rebecca Kerwin | 57.5kg | $7.50 |
| 6th | 3 | Lucky Force | 5 | Kayla Barker | G L Bignell | 60.5kg | $6.00 |
| 7th | 9 | Muiron | 3 | Damien Boutet | Ms C Rogers | 56kg | $101.00 |
| 8th | 6 | Waitakere | 1 | Hayley Saunders | P F Edwards | 54.5kg | $101.00 |
| 9th | 4 | Stratified | 2 | Reece O'Connell | L F Mawn | 57kg | $12.00 |
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