Today he drops to 55.5kg after lugging 59kg in most recent runs, which at a mile is a meaningful edge in a maiden this ordinary. Barrier 4 lets Penza settle him closer than the map suggests, and a slow tempo means the field bunches. Class-wise he is the most exposed but also the most credentialled at the distance.
New South Wales · Saturday 15 August 2026
Kembla Grange tips and results
Our top pick won 0 of 8 races at Kembla Grange. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
top pick wonanother tip wonno tip won
Mollie Fitzgerald Champion Apprentice Super Mdn Hcp
The class-relief runner. Wizard's Star has been racing in Class 1 grade and placed there last start over 2000m at Hawkesbury, dropping back to maiden company here. Barrier 7 maps him into the 4-6 settling band that wins 25% at Kembla on Good. The reservation is a record of 4 starts on Good for no placings against three placings on Soft, so today's firmer surface is unproven.
Barrier 2 today is a marked improvement and with no genuine leader engaged he can dictate. Two things stop him being top pick - 58kg is the highest weight in the race and he has never been beyond 1400m, so the mile is a genuine question.
Genuine each-way value.
- 1st1Flying ArabesqueChad Lever$4.40
- 2nd3Emirate StarHeavelon Van Der Hoven$3.30
- 3rd4Leon RubenJeff Penza$5.00
- 4th5My CartoucheOlivia Chambers$11.00
Full result · 9 runners
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Flying Arabesque | 2 | Chad Lever | Ross McConville | 58kg | $4.40 |
| 2nd | 3 | Emirate Star | 3 | Heavelon Van Der Hoven | Annabel & Rob Archibald | 55.5kg | $3.30 |
| 3rd | 4 | Leon Ruben | 4 | Jeff Penza | Ms D Poidevin-Laine | 55.5kg | $5.00 |
| 4th | 5 | My Cartouche | 8 | Olivia Chambers | Craig Carmody | 53.5kg | $11.00 |
| 5th | 8 | What She's Having | 5 | Jean Van Overmeire | Matthew Smith | 55.5kg | $19.00 |
| 6th | 9 | Wizard's Star | 7 | Pierre Boudvillain | Edward Cummings | 55.5kg | $6.00 |
| 7th | 2 | Revuelto | 1 | Andrew Calder | Matthew Smith | 56kg | $41.00 |
| 8th | 6 | Powerful Majik | 6 | Jon Grisedale | Ms D Poidevin-Laine | 55.5kg | $71.00 |
| 9th | 7 | Stay Quiet | 9 | Keagan Latham | Richard & Will Freedman | 55.5kg | $6.50 |
Keagan Latham Champion Jockey Midway Mdn Plate
Honest, lightly raced type resuming with genuine credentials. Blinkers first time plus an in-form track rider makes him the clear danger; he simply needs to hold a position by the 400m from gate eight.
Barrier three and 56.5kg give him every chance to be in the first three at the 400m, which is the strongest single predictor at Kembla on Good ground.
Barrier 2 lets him take up a handy spot, which matters most at Kembla where top three at the 400m wins about 19% versus 4% for backmarkers.
The overlay of the race.
- 1st8Rhythm Of The ReinJean Van Overmeire$2.30
- 2nd2Extreme CourageChad Lever$21.00
- 3rd11That'sallshewroteLee Magorrian$4.60
- 4th7Bound For PattayaJess Taylor$101.00
Full result · 9 runners
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 8 | Rhythm Of The Rein | 3 | Jean Van Overmeire | K J Parker | 56.5kg | $2.30 |
| 2nd | 2 | Extreme Courage | 12 | Chad Lever | Ross McConville | 59kg | $21.00 |
| 3rd | 11 | That'sallshewrote | 7 | Lee Magorrian | Richard & Will Freedman | 55kg | $4.60 |
| 4th | 7 | Bound For Pattaya | 1 | Jess Taylor | C Karakatsanis | 56.5kg | $101.00 |
| 5th | 5 | Lady Talea | 4 | Heavelon Van Der Hoven | J C Coyle | 57kg | $5.00 |
| 6th | 3 | Silverwater Kid | 8 | Keagan Latham | R & L Price | 59kg | $7.50 |
| 7th | 1 | Autumn Flyer | 10 | Brock Ryan | Ms T Bateup | 59kg | $12.00 |
| 8th | 9 | Chataigne | 9 | Robyn Freeman | G Portelli | 55kg | $20.00 |
| 9th | 12 | Smooth Red | 5 | Rory Hutchings | C Karakatsanis | 59kg | $20.00 |
| Scr | 4 | Ho Aloha | 6 | Mitchell Bell | David Pfieffer | 57kg | |
| Scr | 6 | Lucsain | 2 | David Pfieffer | 57kg | ||
| Scr | 10 | Farcolo | 11 | G Portelli | 55kg |
Beer Carpenter Racing Champion Trainer/ Local Trainer Mdn Hcp
The most exposed and reliable form line in a shallow, first-up-heavy maiden. She is the only genuine contender racing in current fitness off a 16-day break, draws the inside gate on a track where 400m position is the dominant edge, and gets winkers to sharpen focus. Fitness plus proven local form beats untried debutants here.
Michael Freedman rarely presents a provincial maiden runner underdone, and the Keagan Latham booking — 14% at Kembla, 15% for this stable — is a positive intent signal.
The safety runner. Her Good track record of six starts for two seconds and two thirds fits today's conditions, and she is fit off 22 days. The persistent negative is that she has never won, and Kembla's winner profile favours lightly-raced progressive types over exposed maidens. A place proposition rather than a winning one.
The overlay. The 3kg claim delivers a race-low 53kg from the favourable barrier 3, and Kembla rewards runners who can be top-three at the 400m.
- 1st4SchumacherKeagan Latham$2.60
- 2nd13Ho Aloha$7.00
- 3rd1Cap D'ailJon Grisedale$101.00
- 4th3Never KnowChristian Reith$17.00
Full result · 11 runners
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4 | Schumacher | 12 | Keagan Latham | Michael Freedman | 56.5kg | $2.60 |
| 2nd | 13 | Ho Aloha | 8 | David Pfieffer | 55kg | $7.00 | |
| 3rd | 1 | Cap D'ail | 13 | Jon Grisedale | Ms D Poidevin-Laine | 59kg | $101.00 |
| 4th | 3 | Never Know | 5 | Christian Reith | Brad Widdup | 56.5kg | $17.00 |
| 5th | 2 | Sourseane | 9 | Mitchell Bell | M, W & J Hawkes | 57kg | $6.50 |
| 6th | 12 | Ancestral | 6 | Rory Hutchings | C J Waller | 57kg | $10.00 |
| 7th | 6 | Andhe's Brave | 3 | Claire Ramsbotham | Matthew Smith | 53kg | $6.50 |
| 8th | 11 | Andarna | 1 | Jean Van Overmeire | R & L Price | 55kg | $7.50 |
| 9th | 8 | Shambala | 4 | Brock Ryan | K J Parker | 55kg | $17.00 |
| 10th | 9 | Watch Me Tango | 7 | Jess Taylor | Ms T Bateup | 55kg | $31.00 |
| 11th | 7 | Emma Dee Lemma | 2 | Olivia Dalton | Ms T Bateup | 52kg | $101.00 |
| Scr | 5 | Sogni D'oro | 11 | Jeff Penza | Jack Pilkington | 56.5kg | |
| Scr | 10 | Your Colour | 10 | Lee Magorrian | C J Waller | 55kg |
Audenzia ITC Horse Of The Year Hcp (C1)
The most straightforward form line: a 1500m Good 4 win 12 days ago under 59.5kg, with a distance record of 2 starts for 1 win and 1 placing. He is the only genuine leader on the speed map and a moderate tempo lets him dictate. Two things temper him from the top spot - the step from maiden company to Saturday Class 1 is significant, and barrier 10 forces either a wide run or hard early work to cross. Strong place claims in any scenario.
A lightly raced mare on a clear upward curve - second at Newcastle then a win at Wyong on Good 4. The Kembla winner profile favours exactly this type: few starts, in-form, drawn to be prominent. Barrier 2 and the Reith/Widdup combination at 18% make a top-three position at the 400m highly likely, which is the single most durable edge at this track.
The step to 1500m for the first time, barrier 3 and a lighter weight of 56.5kg all point to a sharper performance.
- 1st2Orange TsunamiKeagan Latham$3.20
- 2nd1IcefordDeon Le Roux$6.50
- 3rd3PhilatelicMitchell Bell$1.85
- 4th7VeliaDonovan Dillon$9.50
Full result · 6 runners
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Orange Tsunami | 10 | Keagan Latham | Richard & Will Freedman | 58.5kg | $3.20 |
| 2nd | 1 | Iceford | 1 | Deon Le Roux | Mitchell Beer & George Carpenter | 60kg | $6.50 |
| 3rd | 3 | Philatelic | 7 | Mitchell Bell | Richard Litt | 58.5kg | $1.85 |
| 4th | 7 | Velia | 4 | Donovan Dillon | Mitchell Beer & George Carpenter | 55kg | $9.50 |
| 5th | 8 | Decota | 6 | Jon Grisedale | Ross McConville | 55kg | $26.00 |
| 6th | 10 | Excuseme Mrofficer | 8 | Jean Van Overmeire | Ross McConville | 55kg | $21.00 |
| Scr | 4 | Costabit | 5 | Lee Magorrian | G Ryan & S Alexiou | 56.5kg | |
| Scr | 5 | Skirmish | 3 | Chad Lever | K J Parker | 56.5kg | |
| Scr | 6 | Savoonga | 2 | Christian Reith | Brad Widdup | 56kg | |
| Scr | 9 | Hussy La Vista | 9 | Ms T Bateup | 55kg |
Markey Saddlery Mdn Plate
The class edge is decisive. Gate 5 maps him top-three at the 400m, the single most durable Kembla edge, and the O'Shea/Latham combination strikes at 20%. A 126-day freshen is the only genuine query, mitigated by a fresh Group 3 run.
The best-mapped runner in the race. Two starts for two placings from a lightly raced Freedman colt, with Hutchings striking at 27% for the stable, is a solid platform.
Second up for the first time in his career, he should be sharper, and the step to 1400m suits his finishing pattern. The reservations are structural rather than form-based: barrier 17 and 59kg on a track where being top-three at the 400m matters.
The overlay of the race.
- 1st11HitchRory Hutchings$2.35
- 2nd15Unbridled StormJeff Penza$21.00
- 3rd8Cotoletta CutLee Magorrian$6.00
- 4th14Cool LedgerRobyn Freeman$17.00
Full result · 11 runners
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 11 | Hitch | 2 | Rory Hutchings | Michael Freedman | 56.5kg | $2.35 |
| 2nd | 15 | Unbridled Storm | 3 | Jeff Penza | C J Waller | 59kg | $21.00 |
| 3rd | 8 | Cotoletta Cut | 7 | Lee Magorrian | C J Waller | 56.5kg | $6.00 |
| 4th | 14 | Cool Ledger | 11 | Robyn Freeman | G Portelli | 55kg | $17.00 |
| 5th | 16 | Balmain Warrior | 8 | Andrew Calder | Matthew Smith | 59kg | $31.00 |
| 6th | 7 | Dame Dividend | 10 | Jess Taylor | Matthew Smith | 57kg | $51.00 |
| 7th | 17 | Gosh Almighty | 1 | G Portelli | 56.5kg | $101.00 | |
| 8th | 4 | Cool Rupert | 4 | Claire Ramsbotham | Matthew Smith | 56kg | $31.00 |
| 9th | 13 | Caddy's Steps | 9 | Matt Kirk | R J Quinton | 52.5kg | $41.00 |
| 10th | 6 | Wundersmith | 6 | Olivia Chambers | Anthony Mountney | 55kg | $101.00 |
| 11th | 10 | Stitzer | 5 | Keagan Latham | John O'Shea & Tom Charlton | 56.5kg | $2.40 |
| Scr | 1 | Van Hoven | 19 | G Waterhouse & A Bott | 59kg | ||
| Scr | 2 | Sparkling Fire | 17 | Mitchell Bell | David Pfieffer | 59kg | |
| Scr | 3 | Mr Reiby | 18 | Ms T Bateup | 59kg | ||
| Scr | 5 | Ancestral | 16 | Grant Buckley | C J Waller | 57kg | |
| Scr | 9 | Stateroom | 14 | Sam Clipperton | C Maher | 56.5kg | |
| Scr | 12 | Concrete Storm | 13 | Jean Van Overmeire | John O'Shea & Tom Charlton | 56.5kg | |
| Scr | 18 | Laureata | 12 | Pierre Boudvillain | Danielle Seib | 55kg | |
| Scr | 19 | Andarna | 19 | R & L Price | 55kg | ||
| Scr | 20 | Your Colour | 15 | C J Waller | 55kg |
Tristan Triffitt Exclusive Estate Agents Provincial (Bm64)
Lightly raced at seven starts, she fits the Kembla winner profile of a progressive young type. Reith rides for Widdup at an 18% clip and 17% at this track. Winkers added should sharpen focus. Barrier 6 gives a clean handy map in a moderate tempo.
The most reliable profile in the race. Me Me is 6 starts for a win and two placings at this exact track and distance, and her good-track record of 12:1-4-3 is the deepest surface evidence in the field. First up she is 4:1-2-0, so the 108-day break is no barrier. Barrier 2 gives Latham - 14% at Kembla and four winners from his last twenty - an inside run to be handy at the 400m, which is the single durable edge here. Win conversion is the only genuine query.
A genuinely progressive type with just three starts, and the only runner in the field to have won over this course and distance.
- 1st10Me MeKeagan Latham$3.40
- 2nd9Seven DaysChristian Reith$3.50
- 3rd7Duck For CoverRobyn Freeman$5.00
- 4th8Monte MaximusJean Van Overmeire$16.00
Full result · 9 runners
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 10 | Me Me | 2 | Keagan Latham | R & L Price | 56.5kg | $3.40 |
| 2nd | 9 | Seven Days | 6 | Christian Reith | Brad Widdup | 57kg | $3.50 |
| 3rd | 7 | Duck For Cover | 12 | Robyn Freeman | Anthony Mountney | 58.5kg | $5.00 |
| 4th | 8 | Monte Maximus | 1 | Jean Van Overmeire | R & L Price | 57kg | $16.00 |
| 5th | 3 | Powder Man | 10 | Jon Grisedale | Donna Grisedale | 60kg | $21.00 |
| 6th | 6 | Denial | 8 | Deon Le Roux | Mitchell Beer & George Carpenter | 55.5kg | $8.50 |
| 7th | 1 | Gooloo Bucky | 4 | Grant Buckley | Paul Murray | 60.5kg | $18.00 |
| 8th | 2 | Commanding Belle | 7 | Brock Ryan | R & L Price | 60kg | $8.50 |
| 9th | 11 | Li'l Grug | 3 | Jeff Penza | Ms D Poidevin-Laine | 55kg | $21.00 |
| Scr | 4 | Equilibrist | 11 | Chad Lever | K J Parker | 59.5kg | |
| Scr | 5 | Stakeholder | 9 | T J Bartley | 59kg | ||
| Scr | 12 | Decota | 5 | Ross McConville | 55kg |
Harcourts Dapto Albion Park & Shellharbour Conditional (Bm68)
The most credible mile form in the race. Six starts at 1600m have produced three wins and two seconds, and his last two runs read Bench. 68 at Newcastle. That is a horse racing at or above today's grade rather than being tested by it. Neale knows him and the stable combination is 40% strike. Barrier 11 is the only genuine query, but Kembla's barrier bias on Good is weak and he settles handy enough to be in the first three at the 400m.
The progressive runner of the race and the type Kembla's Good-ground profile rewards: lightly raced, in-form, distance-suited and drawn to be handy. Barrier 5 gives Magorrian the option to be top three at the 400m, which wins about 19% here against 4% for those back. The class rise is a genuine query, hence second rather than first.
She has already won at Kembla over 1500m this preparation and holds a 5-win record from 20 Good-track starts. The seven-day backup suits a hardened mare and barrier 7 lets Buckley, a 13% rider here, take a handy spot. The step to 1600m and her age are the checks, which is why she is third rather than higher.
Today he returns to 1600m, the distance at which he has won 3 of 10, drops to 58.5kg, and draws barrier 4. He has already won a Bench.
- 1st1Natural RulerMitchell Bell$4.80
- 2nd2Southerly BusterIzzy Neale$3.80
- 3rd8Darn CuteOlivia Chambers$8.50
- 4th9MediaroAndrew Calder$71.00
Full result · 13 runners
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Natural Ruler | 9 | Mitchell Bell | A & S Freedman | 61kg | $4.80 |
| 2nd | 2 | Southerly Buster | 11 | Izzy Neale | S I Singleton | 57.5kg | $3.80 |
| 3rd | 8 | Darn Cute | 8 | Olivia Chambers | Craig Carmody | 54kg | $8.50 |
| 4th | 9 | Mediaro | 2 | Andrew Calder | Matthew Smith | 56kg | $71.00 |
| 5th | 11 | Prefer Diamonds | 1 | Rory Hutchings | Jason Attard | 55kg | $21.00 |
| 6th | 6 | Bellevue | 5 | Lee Magorrian | Nacim Dilmi | 56kg | $7.00 |
| 7th | 5 | Mr Fabulous | 10 | Brock Ryan | Ms T Bateup | 57kg | $18.00 |
| 8th | 4 | Brazil | 12 | Jean Van Overmeire | Mitchell Beer & George Carpenter | 57.5kg | $10.00 |
| 9th | 12 | Mah Ali | 6 | Jeff Penza | Ms D Poidevin-Laine | 55kg | $21.00 |
| 10th | 3 | Etched In Time | 4 | Keagan Latham | Richard & Will Freedman | 58.5kg | $12.00 |
| 11th | 7 | Can't Recall One | 13 | Claire Ramsbotham | Matthew Smith | 53kg | $13.00 |
| 12th | 10 | Tavolo | 7 | Grant Buckley | Rob Potter | 56kg | $12.00 |
| 13th | 13 | La Bella Bondi | 3 | Poppie Gorton | Ms D Poidevin-Laine | 52kg | $151.00 |
Illawarra Production Services (Bm64)
With seven genuine leaders lining up over 1000m the tempo projects Very Fast, which is exactly the shape that converts her closing speed into a winning position by the 400m from gate 5. Lightly raced at seven starts, freshened 14 days, and the class-suited profile Kembla Good ground rewards.
Genuine each-way claims.
Solid, but skinny.
With seven genuine leaders guaranteeing pressure, her closing speed from a good gate profiles perfectly. Clear each-way value.
- 1st1FuadeeDeon Le Roux$7.50
- 2nd10AegipanJess Taylor$13.00
- 3rd13Cani CancanGrant Buckley$71.00
- 4th8Misty VeilSam Clipperton$5.50
Full result · 10 runners
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Fuadee | 12 | Deon Le Roux | J & G Lee | 58.5kg | $7.50 |
| 2nd | 10 | Aegipan | 1 | Jess Taylor | Ms T Bateup | 56.5kg | $13.00 |
| 3rd | 13 | Cani Cancan | 11 | Grant Buckley | Paul Murray | 55kg | $71.00 |
| 4th | 8 | Misty Veil | 5 | Sam Clipperton | C Maher | 57.5kg | $5.50 |
| 5th | 4 | Tai Lung | 13 | Pierre Boudvillain | T J Robinson | 59.5kg | $11.00 |
| 6th | 6 | Big Day Out | 2 | Rory Hutchings | Craig Weeding | 59kg | $10.00 |
| 7th | 5 | At Her Mercy | 10 | Shaun Guymer | David Pfieffer | 59kg | $3.60 |
| 8th | 2 | Where's The Circus | 7 | Jean Van Overmeire | Michelle Ritchie | 60kg | $26.00 |
| 9th | 3 | Still Alice | 4 | Jeff Penza | Lee & Cherie Curtis | 59.5kg | $17.00 |
| 10th | 7 | Borjnord | 3 | Keagan Latham | Richard & Will Freedman | 58kg | $3.80 |
| Scr | 9 | Pixie Hallow | 8 | Jon Grisedale | Donna Grisedale | 57kg | |
| Scr | 11 | Half Pipe | 6 | Mitchell Bell | Annabel & Rob Archibald | 56kg | |
| Scr | 12 | Pretty Sassy | 9 | Joseph Ible | 55kg | ||
| Scr | 14 | Ballyhoo | 14 | Olivia Chambers | Craig Carmody | 53kg |
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