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New South Wales · Saturday 15 August 2026

Kembla Grange tips and results

Our top pick won 0 of 8 races at Kembla Grange. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.

Track Good 4Rail +8m 1100m-W/Post, +5m RemainderOvercastKembla Grange track guide ›
Top pick won0/80%
Any tip won6/875%
Top pick placed4/850%
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R1

Mollie Fitzgerald Champion Apprentice Super Mdn Hcp

12:29 local1600mMaiden$60,000
Winner1. Flying ArabesqueSP $4.40
★ Top pick3rd
4Leon Ruben

Our price $3.80 · SP $5.00 · Jeff Penza

Today he drops to 55.5kg after lugging 59kg in most recent runs, which at a mile is a meaningful edge in a maiden this ordinary. Barrier 4 lets Penza settle him closer than the map suggests, and a slow tempo means the field bunches. Class-wise he is the most exposed but also the most credentialled at the distance.

2nd pick6th
9Wizard's Star

Our price $4.60 · SP $6.00 · Pierre Boudvillain

The class-relief runner. Wizard's Star has been racing in Class 1 grade and placed there last start over 2000m at Hawkesbury, dropping back to maiden company here. Barrier 7 maps him into the 4-6 settling band that wins 25% at Kembla on Good. The reservation is a record of 4 starts on Good for no placings against three placings on Soft, so today's firmer surface is unproven.

3rd pickWon
1Flying Arabesque

Our price $5.00 · SP $4.40 · Chad Lever

Barrier 2 today is a marked improvement and with no genuine leader engaged he can dictate. Two things stop him being top pick - 58kg is the highest weight in the race and he has never been beyond 1400m, so the mile is a genuine question.

Value pick5th
8What She's Having

Our price $7.00 · SP $19.00 · Jean Van Overmeire

Genuine each-way value.

  1. 1st1Flying ArabesqueChad Lever$4.40
  2. 2nd3Emirate StarHeavelon Van Der Hoven$3.30
  3. 3rd4Leon RubenJeff Penza$5.00
  4. 4th5My CartoucheOlivia Chambers$11.00
Full result · 9 runners
FinishNo.HorseBarrierJockeyTrainerWeightSP
1st1Flying Arabesque2Chad LeverRoss McConville58kg$4.40
2nd3Emirate Star3Heavelon Van Der HovenAnnabel & Rob Archibald55.5kg$3.30
3rd4Leon Ruben4Jeff PenzaMs D Poidevin-Laine55.5kg$5.00
4th5My Cartouche8Olivia ChambersCraig Carmody53.5kg$11.00
5th8What She's Having5Jean Van OvermeireMatthew Smith55.5kg$19.00
6th9Wizard's Star7Pierre BoudvillainEdward Cummings55.5kg$6.00
7th2Revuelto1Andrew CalderMatthew Smith56kg$41.00
8th6Powerful Majik6Jon GrisedaleMs D Poidevin-Laine55.5kg$71.00
9th7Stay Quiet9Keagan LathamRichard & Will Freedman55.5kg$6.50
R2

Keagan Latham Champion Jockey Midway Mdn Plate

13:04 local1000mMaiden$45,000
Winner8. Rhythm Of The ReinSP $2.30
★ Top pick6th
3Silverwater Kid

Our price $4.50 · SP $7.50 · Keagan Latham

Honest, lightly raced type resuming with genuine credentials. Blinkers first time plus an in-form track rider makes him the clear danger; he simply needs to hold a position by the 400m from gate eight.

2nd pickWon
8Rhythm Of The Rein

Our price $7.50 · SP $2.30 · Jean Van Overmeire

Barrier three and 56.5kg give him every chance to be in the first three at the 400m, which is the strongest single predictor at Kembla on Good ground.

999th pickScratched
6Lucsain

Our price $1.90

Barrier 2 lets him take up a handy spot, which matters most at Kembla where top three at the 400m wins about 19% versus 4% for backmarkers.

Value pickScratched
10Farcolo

Our price $30.00

The overlay of the race.

  1. 1st8Rhythm Of The ReinJean Van Overmeire$2.30
  2. 2nd2Extreme CourageChad Lever$21.00
  3. 3rd11That'sallshewroteLee Magorrian$4.60
  4. 4th7Bound For PattayaJess Taylor$101.00
Full result · 9 runners
FinishNo.HorseBarrierJockeyTrainerWeightSP
1st8Rhythm Of The Rein3Jean Van OvermeireK J Parker56.5kg$2.30
2nd2Extreme Courage12Chad LeverRoss McConville59kg$21.00
3rd11That'sallshewrote7Lee MagorrianRichard & Will Freedman55kg$4.60
4th7Bound For Pattaya1Jess TaylorC Karakatsanis56.5kg$101.00
5th5Lady Talea4Heavelon Van Der HovenJ C Coyle57kg$5.00
6th3Silverwater Kid8Keagan LathamR & L Price59kg$7.50
7th1Autumn Flyer10Brock RyanMs T Bateup59kg$12.00
8th9Chataigne9Robyn FreemanG Portelli55kg$20.00
9th12Smooth Red5Rory HutchingsC Karakatsanis59kg$20.00
Scr4Ho Aloha6Mitchell BellDavid Pfieffer57kg
Scr6Lucsain2David Pfieffer57kg
Scr10Farcolo11G Portelli55kg
R3

Beer Carpenter Racing Champion Trainer/ Local Trainer Mdn Hcp

13:39 local1200mMaiden$42,000
Winner4. SchumacherSP $2.60
★ Top pick8th
11Andarna

Our price $3.60 · SP $7.50 · Jean Van Overmeire

The most exposed and reliable form line in a shallow, first-up-heavy maiden. She is the only genuine contender racing in current fitness off a 16-day break, draws the inside gate on a track where 400m position is the dominant edge, and gets winkers to sharpen focus. Fitness plus proven local form beats untried debutants here.

2nd pickWon
4Schumacher

Our price $3.80 · SP $2.60 · Keagan Latham

Michael Freedman rarely presents a provincial maiden runner underdone, and the Keagan Latham booking — 14% at Kembla, 15% for this stable — is a positive intent signal.

3rd pick2nd
13Ho Aloha

Our price $5.50 · SP $7.00

The safety runner. Her Good track record of six starts for two seconds and two thirds fits today's conditions, and she is fit off 22 days. The persistent negative is that she has never won, and Kembla's winner profile favours lightly-raced progressive types over exposed maidens. A place proposition rather than a winning one.

Value pick7th
6Andhe's Brave

Our price $6.50 · SP $6.50 · Claire Ramsbotham

The overlay. The 3kg claim delivers a race-low 53kg from the favourable barrier 3, and Kembla rewards runners who can be top-three at the 400m.

  1. 1st4SchumacherKeagan Latham$2.60
  2. 2nd13Ho Aloha$7.00
  3. 3rd1Cap D'ailJon Grisedale$101.00
  4. 4th3Never KnowChristian Reith$17.00
Full result · 11 runners
FinishNo.HorseBarrierJockeyTrainerWeightSP
1st4Schumacher12Keagan LathamMichael Freedman56.5kg$2.60
2nd13Ho Aloha8David Pfieffer55kg$7.00
3rd1Cap D'ail13Jon GrisedaleMs D Poidevin-Laine59kg$101.00
4th3Never Know5Christian ReithBrad Widdup56.5kg$17.00
5th2Sourseane9Mitchell BellM, W & J Hawkes57kg$6.50
6th12Ancestral6Rory HutchingsC J Waller57kg$10.00
7th6Andhe's Brave3Claire RamsbothamMatthew Smith53kg$6.50
8th11Andarna1Jean Van OvermeireR & L Price55kg$7.50
9th8Shambala4Brock RyanK J Parker55kg$17.00
10th9Watch Me Tango7Jess TaylorMs T Bateup55kg$31.00
11th7Emma Dee Lemma2Olivia DaltonMs T Bateup52kg$101.00
Scr5Sogni D'oro11Jeff PenzaJack Pilkington56.5kg
Scr10Your Colour10Lee MagorrianC J Waller55kg
R4

Audenzia ITC Horse Of The Year Hcp (C1)

14:14 local1500mClass 1$42,000
Winner2. Orange TsunamiSP $3.20
★ Top pick3rd
3Philatelic

Our price $2.80 · SP $1.85 · Mitchell Bell

2nd pickWon
2Orange Tsunami

Our price $4.00 · SP $3.20 · Keagan Latham

The most straightforward form line: a 1500m Good 4 win 12 days ago under 59.5kg, with a distance record of 2 starts for 1 win and 1 placing. He is the only genuine leader on the speed map and a moderate tempo lets him dictate. Two things temper him from the top spot - the step from maiden company to Saturday Class 1 is significant, and barrier 10 forces either a wide run or hard early work to cross. Strong place claims in any scenario.

999th pickScratched
6Savoonga

Our price $7.50 · Christian Reith

A lightly raced mare on a clear upward curve - second at Newcastle then a win at Wyong on Good 4. The Kembla winner profile favours exactly this type: few starts, in-form, drawn to be prominent. Barrier 2 and the Reith/Widdup combination at 18% make a top-three position at the 400m highly likely, which is the single most durable edge at this track.

Value pickScratched
5Skirmish

Our price $8.00 · Chad Lever

The step to 1500m for the first time, barrier 3 and a lighter weight of 56.5kg all point to a sharper performance.

  1. 1st2Orange TsunamiKeagan Latham$3.20
  2. 2nd1IcefordDeon Le Roux$6.50
  3. 3rd3PhilatelicMitchell Bell$1.85
  4. 4th7VeliaDonovan Dillon$9.50
Full result · 6 runners
FinishNo.HorseBarrierJockeyTrainerWeightSP
1st2Orange Tsunami10Keagan LathamRichard & Will Freedman58.5kg$3.20
2nd1Iceford1Deon Le RouxMitchell Beer & George Carpenter60kg$6.50
3rd3Philatelic7Mitchell BellRichard Litt58.5kg$1.85
4th7Velia4Donovan DillonMitchell Beer & George Carpenter55kg$9.50
5th8Decota6Jon GrisedaleRoss McConville55kg$26.00
6th10Excuseme Mrofficer8Jean Van OvermeireRoss McConville55kg$21.00
Scr4Costabit5Lee MagorrianG Ryan & S Alexiou56.5kg
Scr5Skirmish3Chad LeverK J Parker56.5kg
Scr6Savoonga2Christian ReithBrad Widdup56kg
Scr9Hussy La Vista9Ms T Bateup55kg
R5

Markey Saddlery Mdn Plate

14:49 local1400mMaiden$42,000
Winner11. HitchSP $2.35
★ Top pick11th
10Stitzer

Our price $2.60 · SP $2.40 · Keagan Latham

The class edge is decisive. Gate 5 maps him top-three at the 400m, the single most durable Kembla edge, and the O'Shea/Latham combination strikes at 20%. A 126-day freshen is the only genuine query, mitigated by a fresh Group 3 run.

2nd pickWon
11Hitch

Our price $5.00 · SP $2.35 · Rory Hutchings

The best-mapped runner in the race. Two starts for two placings from a lightly raced Freedman colt, with Hutchings striking at 27% for the stable, is a solid platform.

999th pickScratched
2Sparkling Fire

Our price $5.50 · Mitchell Bell

Second up for the first time in his career, he should be sharper, and the step to 1400m suits his finishing pattern. The reservations are structural rather than form-based: barrier 17 and 59kg on a track where being top-three at the 400m matters.

Value pickScratched
9Stateroom

Our price $6.00 · Sam Clipperton

The overlay of the race.

  1. 1st11HitchRory Hutchings$2.35
  2. 2nd15Unbridled StormJeff Penza$21.00
  3. 3rd8Cotoletta CutLee Magorrian$6.00
  4. 4th14Cool LedgerRobyn Freeman$17.00
Full result · 11 runners
FinishNo.HorseBarrierJockeyTrainerWeightSP
1st11Hitch2Rory HutchingsMichael Freedman56.5kg$2.35
2nd15Unbridled Storm3Jeff PenzaC J Waller59kg$21.00
3rd8Cotoletta Cut7Lee MagorrianC J Waller56.5kg$6.00
4th14Cool Ledger11Robyn FreemanG Portelli55kg$17.00
5th16Balmain Warrior8Andrew CalderMatthew Smith59kg$31.00
6th7Dame Dividend10Jess TaylorMatthew Smith57kg$51.00
7th17Gosh Almighty1G Portelli56.5kg$101.00
8th4Cool Rupert4Claire RamsbothamMatthew Smith56kg$31.00
9th13Caddy's Steps9Matt KirkR J Quinton52.5kg$41.00
10th6Wundersmith6Olivia ChambersAnthony Mountney55kg$101.00
11th10Stitzer5Keagan LathamJohn O'Shea & Tom Charlton56.5kg$2.40
Scr1Van Hoven19G Waterhouse & A Bott59kg
Scr2Sparkling Fire17Mitchell BellDavid Pfieffer59kg
Scr3Mr Reiby18Ms T Bateup59kg
Scr5Ancestral16Grant BuckleyC J Waller57kg
Scr9Stateroom14Sam ClippertonC Maher56.5kg
Scr12Concrete Storm13Jean Van OvermeireJohn O'Shea & Tom Charlton56.5kg
Scr18Laureata12Pierre BoudvillainDanielle Seib55kg
Scr19Andarna19R & L Price55kg
Scr20Your Colour15C J Waller55kg
R6

Tristan Triffitt Exclusive Estate Agents Provincial (Bm64)

15:29 local1200mBenchmark 64$45,000
Winner10. Me MeSP $3.40
★ Top pick2nd
9Seven Days

Our price $3.30 · SP $3.50 · Christian Reith

Lightly raced at seven starts, she fits the Kembla winner profile of a progressive young type. Reith rides for Widdup at an 18% clip and 17% at this track. Winkers added should sharpen focus. Barrier 6 gives a clean handy map in a moderate tempo.

2nd pickWon
10Me Me

Our price $5.00 · SP $3.40 · Keagan Latham

The most reliable profile in the race. Me Me is 6 starts for a win and two placings at this exact track and distance, and her good-track record of 12:1-4-3 is the deepest surface evidence in the field. First up she is 4:1-2-0, so the 108-day break is no barrier. Barrier 2 gives Latham - 14% at Kembla and four winners from his last twenty - an inside run to be handy at the 400m, which is the single durable edge here. Win conversion is the only genuine query.

999th pickScratched
5Stakeholder

Our price $5.50

A genuinely progressive type with just three starts, and the only runner in the field to have won over this course and distance.

Value pick7th
1Gooloo Bucky

Our price $12.00 · SP $18.00 · Grant Buckley

  1. 1st10Me MeKeagan Latham$3.40
  2. 2nd9Seven DaysChristian Reith$3.50
  3. 3rd7Duck For CoverRobyn Freeman$5.00
  4. 4th8Monte MaximusJean Van Overmeire$16.00
Full result · 9 runners
FinishNo.HorseBarrierJockeyTrainerWeightSP
1st10Me Me2Keagan LathamR & L Price56.5kg$3.40
2nd9Seven Days6Christian ReithBrad Widdup57kg$3.50
3rd7Duck For Cover12Robyn FreemanAnthony Mountney58.5kg$5.00
4th8Monte Maximus1Jean Van OvermeireR & L Price57kg$16.00
5th3Powder Man10Jon GrisedaleDonna Grisedale60kg$21.00
6th6Denial8Deon Le RouxMitchell Beer & George Carpenter55.5kg$8.50
7th1Gooloo Bucky4Grant BuckleyPaul Murray60.5kg$18.00
8th2Commanding Belle7Brock RyanR & L Price60kg$8.50
9th11Li'l Grug3Jeff PenzaMs D Poidevin-Laine55kg$21.00
Scr4Equilibrist11Chad LeverK J Parker59.5kg
Scr5Stakeholder9T J Bartley59kg
Scr12Decota5Ross McConville55kg
R7

Harcourts Dapto Albion Park & Shellharbour Conditional (Bm68)

16:05 local1600mBenchmark 68$42,000
Winner1. Natural RulerSP $4.80
★ Top pick2nd
2Southerly Buster

Our price $3.60 · SP $3.80 · Izzy Neale

The most credible mile form in the race. Six starts at 1600m have produced three wins and two seconds, and his last two runs read Bench. 68 at Newcastle. That is a horse racing at or above today's grade rather than being tested by it. Neale knows him and the stable combination is 40% strike. Barrier 11 is the only genuine query, but Kembla's barrier bias on Good is weak and he settles handy enough to be in the first three at the 400m.

2nd pick6th
6Bellevue

Our price $5.00 · SP $7.00 · Lee Magorrian

The progressive runner of the race and the type Kembla's Good-ground profile rewards: lightly raced, in-form, distance-suited and drawn to be handy. Barrier 5 gives Magorrian the option to be top three at the 400m, which wins about 19% here against 4% for those back. The class rise is a genuine query, hence second rather than first.

3rd pick12th
10Tavolo

Our price $8.00 · SP $12.00 · Grant Buckley

She has already won at Kembla over 1500m this preparation and holds a 5-win record from 20 Good-track starts. The seven-day backup suits a hardened mare and barrier 7 lets Buckley, a 13% rider here, take a handy spot. The step to 1600m and her age are the checks, which is why she is third rather than higher.

Value pick10th
3Etched In Time

Our price $9.00 · SP $12.00 · Keagan Latham

Today he returns to 1600m, the distance at which he has won 3 of 10, drops to 58.5kg, and draws barrier 4. He has already won a Bench.

  1. 1st1Natural RulerMitchell Bell$4.80
  2. 2nd2Southerly BusterIzzy Neale$3.80
  3. 3rd8Darn CuteOlivia Chambers$8.50
  4. 4th9MediaroAndrew Calder$71.00
Full result · 13 runners
FinishNo.HorseBarrierJockeyTrainerWeightSP
1st1Natural Ruler9Mitchell BellA & S Freedman61kg$4.80
2nd2Southerly Buster11Izzy NealeS I Singleton57.5kg$3.80
3rd8Darn Cute8Olivia ChambersCraig Carmody54kg$8.50
4th9Mediaro2Andrew CalderMatthew Smith56kg$71.00
5th11Prefer Diamonds1Rory HutchingsJason Attard55kg$21.00
6th6Bellevue5Lee MagorrianNacim Dilmi56kg$7.00
7th5Mr Fabulous10Brock RyanMs T Bateup57kg$18.00
8th4Brazil12Jean Van OvermeireMitchell Beer & George Carpenter57.5kg$10.00
9th12Mah Ali6Jeff PenzaMs D Poidevin-Laine55kg$21.00
10th3Etched In Time4Keagan LathamRichard & Will Freedman58.5kg$12.00
11th7Can't Recall One13Claire RamsbothamMatthew Smith53kg$13.00
12th10Tavolo7Grant BuckleyRob Potter56kg$12.00
13th13La Bella Bondi3Poppie GortonMs D Poidevin-Laine52kg$151.00
R8

Illawarra Production Services (Bm64)

16:39 local1000mBenchmark 64$42,000
Winner1. FuadeeSP $7.50
★ Top pick4th
8Misty Veil

Our price $4.50 · SP $5.50 · Sam Clipperton

With seven genuine leaders lining up over 1000m the tempo projects Very Fast, which is exactly the shape that converts her closing speed into a winning position by the 400m from gate 5. Lightly raced at seven starts, freshened 14 days, and the class-suited profile Kembla Good ground rewards.

2nd pick2nd
10Aegipan

Our price $7.00 · SP $13.00 · Jess Taylor

Genuine each-way claims.

999th pickScratched
11Half Pipe

Our price $3.20 · Mitchell Bell

Solid, but skinny.

Value pick9th
3Still Alice

Our price $11.00 · SP $17.00 · Jeff Penza

With seven genuine leaders guaranteeing pressure, her closing speed from a good gate profiles perfectly. Clear each-way value.

  1. 1st1FuadeeDeon Le Roux$7.50
  2. 2nd10AegipanJess Taylor$13.00
  3. 3rd13Cani CancanGrant Buckley$71.00
  4. 4th8Misty VeilSam Clipperton$5.50
Full result · 10 runners
FinishNo.HorseBarrierJockeyTrainerWeightSP
1st1Fuadee12Deon Le RouxJ & G Lee58.5kg$7.50
2nd10Aegipan1Jess TaylorMs T Bateup56.5kg$13.00
3rd13Cani Cancan11Grant BuckleyPaul Murray55kg$71.00
4th8Misty Veil5Sam ClippertonC Maher57.5kg$5.50
5th4Tai Lung13Pierre BoudvillainT J Robinson59.5kg$11.00
6th6Big Day Out2Rory HutchingsCraig Weeding59kg$10.00
7th5At Her Mercy10Shaun GuymerDavid Pfieffer59kg$3.60
8th2Where's The Circus7Jean Van OvermeireMichelle Ritchie60kg$26.00
9th3Still Alice4Jeff PenzaLee & Cherie Curtis59.5kg$17.00
10th7Borjnord3Keagan LathamRichard & Will Freedman58kg$3.80
Scr9Pixie Hallow8Jon GrisedaleDonna Grisedale57kg
Scr11Half Pipe6Mitchell BellAnnabel & Rob Archibald56kg
Scr12Pretty Sassy9Joseph Ible55kg
Scr14Ballyhoo14Olivia ChambersCraig Carmody53kg

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