Punt like a Pro, without the know!
New Zealand · Saturday 15 August 2026
Our top pick won 3 of 8 races at Ruakaka. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
top pick wonanother tip wonno tip won
She drops significantly in class, is proven at 1200m and on wet ground, carries only 54kg and retains a rider in good Ruakaka touch. The 55-day gap and gate 9 are real negatives in an upset-prone maiden tier, which caps confidence rather than the case itself. Clear top pick.
The most credentialled maiden in the race on raw formlines. Dropping into a maiden with 54kg from gate 5 is a genuine class and weight edge, and both his placings have come on rain-affected Ruakaka ground.
A promising second-up type who placed at this precise track, trip and going on debut after being buried in barrier 17. Mc Nab's engagement and current strike rate add intent. The 58.5kg top weight in the wet and gate 10 are the checks, so he is best used in the placings.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 11 | Fraudster | 5 | Jack Taplin | K I Rae | 54kg | $5.20 |
| 2nd | 8 | Miesha | 2 | Joe Nishizuka | S Ralph | 53.5kg | $23.40 |
| 3rd | 1 | Boomstruck | 4 | Tom Wigram | Ms J K Mahoney | 55.5kg | $5.00 |
| 4th | 3 | Aim Up | 3 | Craig Grylls | D C Lang | 58.5kg | $12.50 |
| 5th | 13 | Russian Prime | 9 | George Rooke | S Ritchie & C Murray | 54kg | $3.50 |
| 6th | 5 | Kinross | 7 | Kyle Wilson-Taylor | S & E Clotworthy | 58.5kg | $59.00 |
| 7th | 12 | Dominator | 8 | Masahiro Hashizume | S & E Clotworthy | 56kg | $13.30 |
| 8th | 6 | One Up | 6 | Ashlee Strawbridge | K I Rae | 55.5kg | $65.10 |
| 9th | 14 | Lean On Me | 13 | Ethan Jones | K I Rae | 54kg | $33.60 |
| 10th | 2 | Foreign Currency | 10 | Michael Mc Nab | K A Pertab | 58.5kg | $5.20 |
| 11th | 7 | Viva L''amour | 11 | Erin M Leighton | T R Powell | 56.5kg | $60.80 |
| 12th | 4 | That''ll Do | 1 | Niranjan S Parmar | D J Miller | 58.5kg | $24.90 |
| 13th | 10 | Mimoso | 12 | Bridget Grylls | R T Wells | 56.5kg | $114.70 |
| Scr | 9 | Katestrophic | 14 | Debbie Sweeney | 56.5kg |
Six top-three finishes in ten starts and two seconds from two Ruakaka appearances confirm she is suited by venue and Soft going, and she does meet Nicconi County 2.5kg better at the weights.
Soft going is clearly no issue, barrier 1 and 54kg are assets, and Kennedy stays aboard. The queries are genuine: first-up from 147 days and a sharp drop to 1100m having never raced shorter than 1400m.
The most credentialled runner in the race on current form. His Soft record of 15:4-1-1 and Ruakaka record of 2:2-0-0 tick the two traits that matter most at this venue.
The value angle. A 4yo mare on a clear upward curve who has run second in two of her three Ruakaka starts and finally broke through on Heavy ground at Te Aroha last start. Wet going is a positive, 54kg and barrier 4 are both in her favour, and Hashizume is 4 from 15 at this venue with a 29% record for the stable.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Scolera | 6 | Samantha Collett | J C Collett | 57kg | $2.30 |
| 2nd | 5 | Bethany Dee | 7 | Wiremu Pinn | D G Greene | 54kg | $7.60 |
| 3rd | 8 | Withallmygrace | 4 | Masahiro Hashizume | Ms J K Mahoney | 54kg | $7.70 |
| 4th | 7 | Victor Tango | 1 | Warren Kennedy | D G Greene | 54kg | $3.30 |
| 5th | 6 | Larius Lacus | 3 | Tom Wigram | Ms D Logan | 51kg | $10.80 |
| 6th | 4 | Koheroa | 2 | Joe Nishizuka | S Ralph | 53kg | $8.60 |
| Scr | 1 | Nicconi County | 5 | Ashlee Strawbridge | J & R Vance | 59.5kg | |
| Scr | 3 | The Perfect One | 7 | Jasmine Fawcett | G J Old | 57kg |
The most distance-proven runner in a race where Ruakaka Soft winners are ~48% distance-winners. Long Island has 4 placings from her last 6, ran 3rd at this track and trip in July, and was beaten a nose over a mile at Ellerslie on Soft 5. Her soft-track record (3 starts, 2 seconds) confirms wet suitability, and barrier 2 sits in the track's best band. The weight rise off 52.5kg is the genuine risk, but her class edge over these is clear.
Forester has run top-3 in three of his last six and is clearly progressing with distance — his only 1600m start produced a third at Te Rapa on Heavy 10 carrying today's 58.5kg. He has placed on both soft and heavy, so the surface is no issue, and barrier 5 is well within the productive inside-to-midfield band at Ruakaka. The 58.5kg top weight and a persistent tendency to finish second or third are the reservations, so place cover is the sensible play.
She draws far better in gate 3 today at the same 56.5kg and backs up in 13 days. Ruakaka Soft winners are typically distance-proven recent placegetters, which she now is. The reservation is the rest of her record — one top-3 from six — so she rates a solid each-way rather than a win play.
He now gets the best gate in the race in barrier 1 — the most productive band at Ruakaka on Soft — and carries a light 55.5kg.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Sneaky Cyclone | 11 | Sam McNab | D J Miller | 56.5kg | $6.70 |
| 2nd | 7 | The Pen Is Mighty | 4 | Bridget Grylls | T R Powell | 58.5kg | $33.30 |
| 3rd | 12 | Rippin Along | 3 | Erin M Leighton | Maxim & Samantha Van Lierde | 56.5kg | $10.40 |
| 4th | 11 | Long Island | 2 | Masahiro Hashizume | Ms D Logan | 56.5kg | $5.50 |
| 5th | 3 | Dahlia Amped | 14 | Craig Grylls | D C Lang | 58.5kg | $10.20 |
| 6th | 13 | Cheerful Smile | 15 | Rihaan Goyaram | Ms J K Mahoney | 54.5kg | $18.60 |
| 7th | 15 | Seduire | 9 | Joe Doyle | Sophia Nolan & Hanna Orting | 56.5kg | $28.20 |
| 8th | 6 | Departure | 12 | Kyle Wilson-Taylor | Ms D Logan | 58.5kg | $14.30 |
| 9th | 5 | Stralsund | 1 | Tom Wigram | Ms D Logan | 55.5kg | $24.00 |
| 10th | 1 | Forester | 5 | George Rooke | Ms A S Johnson | 58.5kg | $2.70 |
| 11th | 17 | Just A Littletipsy | 13 | Abhay Seesa | T R Powell | 54.5kg | $101.60 |
| 12th | 9 | Piston Broke | 7 | Wiremu Pinn | K I Rae | 58.5kg | $42.70 |
| 13th | 4 | Midnight Flair | 8 | Ethan Jones | Ms J K Mahoney | 58.5kg | $64.20 |
| 14th | 10 | Tuscany | 6 | Ashlee Strawbridge | K I Rae | 55.5kg | $57.40 |
| Scr | 8 | Franzinho | 15 | A Oliveira | 58.5kg | ||
| Scr | 14 | Queen Sansa | 14 | Emma Faber | 56.5kg | ||
| Scr | 16 | Sneaky Duck | 10 | M L Rogers | 58.5kg |
Ruakaka on Soft rewards distance-proven, recently-placed runners drawn inside, and he ticks every box from gate 2. The 0-from-10 Soft record and Taplin's cold run are genuine concerns, but the raw form lines are a length clear of the field and the slow tempo suits a horse who can sit close.
No horse in the field knows Ruakaka better — 2 wins and 2 placings from 5 tries over the mile here.
The caveat is real: her wet record is built on Heavy 10 tracks, and on Soft she is 0 from 12.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 8 | Super Rosa | 9 | Michael Mc Nab | K I Rae | 54.5kg | $6.20 |
| 2nd | 3 | Solidify | 5 | Kyle Wilson-Taylor | G A & D G Rogerson & Clint Isdale | 60.5kg | $5.70 |
| 3rd | 4 | Overrated | 3 | M B Garrett | 57.5kg | $11.60 | |
| 4th | 2 | Bourbon Proof | 2 | Jack Taplin | Ms M L Bradley | 58.5kg | $2.80 |
| 5th | 5 | Loch Katrine | 4 | Niranjan S Parmar | D J Miller | 56kg | $7.70 |
| 6th | 1 | Hezashocka | 6 | Sam McNab | S & E Clotworthy | 63kg | $8.10 |
| 7th | 6 | Novak | 7 | Matthew Cartwright | G A & D G Rogerson & Clint Isdale | 56kg | $11.40 |
| 8th | 7 | Texas | 1 | Erin M Leighton | N P Bishara | 56kg | $12.80 |
| Scr | 9 | Mineshaft | 8 | Joe Doyle | Ms P Gerard | 54kg |
She broke through over this exact course and distance on a Soft 6 a fortnight ago and holds the single strongest Ruakaka winner trait - proven distance form. Barrier 1 sits in the best-performing gate band here, McNab is riding at 25% and is 1-from-1 on her, and she is a lightly raced improver rather than an exposed handicapper.
The most reliable profile in the race on local evidence. Miss Seth has been placed or better five times from ten Ruakaka appearances, has won at this course and distance, and comes in off a solid third here two weeks ago. She gets in light at 54kg from a workable barrier six and needs no class rise. The jockey booking is the clear weakness and her Soft-track record lacks a win, so she is safer for the placings than to win.
The most improvable runner in the field. Barrier 10 and a jockey with a lean strike rate at Ruakaka temper enthusiasm, but he is a live each-way proposition at the trip.
The overlay of the race. Azamira is one of only two runners who have actually won over 1600m at Ruakaka, and she did it on Soft ground last time in a driving finish. She draws barrier 5 in the productive gate band, is clearly on the improve at four, and the stable-jockey combination is 2 from 2.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 9 | Miss Seth | 6 | Ashlee Strawbridge | K I Rae | 54kg | $4.00 |
| 2nd | 8 | Merriama | 1 | Michael Mc Nab | Ms K A Hoskin | 57kg | $3.90 |
| 3rd | 2 | Jurisprudence | 3 | Abhay Seesa | Danny Walker & Arron Tata | 55kg | $9.30 |
| 4th | 6 | Interplanetary | 15 | Erin M Leighton | S & E Clotworthy | 57.5kg | $32.30 |
| 5th | 11 | Tide And Time | 12 | Craig Grylls | K I Rae | 57kg | $15.60 |
| 6th | 5 | Emmy Dazzler | 13 | Sienna Brown | C J Wood | 54.5kg | $22.90 |
| 7th | 10 | Pact | 2 | Samantha Collett | Ms D Logan | 57kg | $10.70 |
| 8th | 3 | Sugar Daddy | 10 | Sam McNab | A W Pike | 57kg | $7.60 |
| 9th | 12 | Chasing Warrior | 7 | Jack Taplin | B Wallace & G Cooksley | 55kg | $17.40 |
| 10th | 4 | I Dunnet | 11 | Wiremu Pinn | K I Rae | 58kg | $35.50 |
| 11th | 13 | Azamira | 5 | Ethan Jones | Ms J K Mahoney | 56.5kg | $38.00 |
| 12th | 1 | Double Take | 14 | Tom Wigram | J & R Vance | 57kg | $54.00 |
| 13th | 14 | Dubai Rockin | 4 | Jasmine Fawcett | Ms M L Bradley | 54kg | $20.50 |
| 14th | 7 | Sacred Combatant | 9 | A Lawson-Carroll | B Wallace & G Cooksley | 57.5kg | $25.00 |
| Scr | 15 | Billy Blinx | 8 | George Rooke | S & E Clotworthy | 59kg |
The most complete profile for these conditions. She has raced exclusively on soft ground, with 2 wins, a second and a third from six starts, and comes off back-to-back wins including an Open victory over this track on Soft 6 a fortnight ago where she accounted for Urchella. She is a proven 1200m winner and a track winner — the standout Ruakaka soft winner trait — draws ideally in barrier 5 and carries just 55kg.
She won a Ruakaka 1200m Maiden on Soft 6 on debut from the outside gate and now gets a far kinder barrier 4 with 55kg. The track-and-distance record and soft-ground win match the winning profile here perfectly, and McNab's engagement is a positive intent signal. Elite upside, no value.
The class yardstick. His Group 2 win over 1200m on Soft 6 in January is the strongest black-type line in the race, and he has won first-up from his only fresh attempt. Against that, he has been out for six months, was well beaten in his last two, and shoulders 57kg giving 2kg to the fillies. Barrier 7 is fine and the trip suits.
A genuine overlay. Four placings from her past five starts mark her as reliable rather than flashy, and barrier 1 is the most productive gate at Ruakaka. Each-way value.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 6 | She''s No Saint | 5 | George Rooke | Ms M L Bradley | 55kg | $5.40 |
| 2nd | 7 | Shalabiya | 4 | Michael Mc Nab | Danny Walker & Arron Tata | 55kg | $1.50 |
| 3rd | 8 | Silhouette | 10 | Samantha Collett | T W Cole | 55kg | $18.70 |
| 4th | 9 | Summer Schemer | 2 | Kyle Wilson-Taylor | S Ritchie & C Murray | 55kg | $15.40 |
| 5th | 11 | Urchella | 1 | Wiremu Pinn | K I Rae | 55kg | $18.40 |
| 6th | 10 | Semra | 9 | Niranjan S Parmar | D J Miller | 55kg | $53.00 |
| 7th | 4 | State Of Valour | 12 | Warren Kennedy | L R Noble | 57kg | $11.50 |
| 8th | 3 | Sonar | 3 | Matthew Cartwright | Debbie Sweeney | 57kg | $23.80 |
| 9th | 5 | Ceasars Palace | 11 | Masahiro Hashizume | K I Rae | 57kg | $58.00 |
| Scr | 1 | Kinnaird | 7 | Craig Grylls | Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson | 57kg | |
| Scr | 2 | Honour Roll | 6 | Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson | 57kg | ||
| Scr | 12 | Phillyjean | 8 | Sam McNab | Samantha Logan | 55kg |
The Ruakaka Soft profile rewards distance-proven runners drawn inside-to-midfield, and Reward Smile is the only runner in the field who has won at this track over this trip. His 4 July Open win at Te Rapa on Soft 7 is the strongest recent piece of wet Open form on offer, and the Heavy 10 flop since is easily forgiven given he has just one placing from bottomless ground. Hashizume's 27% Ruakaka strike and 29% with the stable adds intent.
Against her: she is first up from 132 days with an 0-from-3 first-up record, and she drops 800m from her last assignment, so a 1400m sprint on a Soft 7 should find her needing the run.
Nothing in the field matches her Ruakaka credentials — 10 starts for 2 wins and 8 top-three finishes, plus 4 course-and-distance runs producing two seconds and two thirds. She was beaten only half a length over this trip on Soft 6 a fortnight ago and is well in at 55kg.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Reward Smile | 5 | Masahiro Hashizume | Ms J K Mahoney | 59.5kg | $6.10 |
| 2nd | 6 | Nicconi County | 2 | George Rooke | J & R Vance | 55kg | $3.20 |
| 3rd | 5 | Mosinvader | 3 | Craig Grylls | L O''sullivan & A Scott | 55.5kg | $6.20 |
| 4th | 7 | I''m Lulu | 9 | Joe Doyle | T M Mcdonald | 54kg | $9.70 |
| 5th | 4 | Levakia | 1 | Michael Mc Nab | K & B Kelso | 56kg | $4.70 |
| 6th | 9 | Elysian Fields | 7 | Erin M Leighton | T R Powell | 54kg | $31.90 |
| 7th | 1 | Cluedo Lane | 4 | Matthew Cartwright | Joseph Waldron | 60kg | $7.70 |
| 8th | 3 | Illicit Dreams | 8 | Ashlee Strawbridge | K I Rae | 55kg | $12.80 |
| Scr | 8 | Moneypenny | 6 | Warren Kennedy | Barbara Kennedy | 54kg |
The most reliable form line in the race. Ashoka has run second in five of his last six at this precise grade, beaten under a length each time, including two Ruakaka placings on Soft ground in the last five weeks. His soft record — 8 seconds and a third from 10 starts — is exactly the wet-track profile Ruakaka rewards, and the rise to 1400m for the first time should suit a horse always finishing over the top of them. Barrier 11 and a modest strike rate are the obvious flaws, but the class edge over the maiden graduates is real.
Golden Point brings the strongest distance credential in the field — a win and a second from two starts at 1400m, and Ruakaka on Soft rewards distance-proven runners above all else. The Avondale maiden win on Heavy 10 came against the clock in testing ground, and the wet record of 3 heavy starts for a win and a placing reads well for today. Barrier 6 is serviceable and Grylls is an upgrade. The class rise from maiden company and 59kg temper enthusiasm, but the trip and ground tick over.
A progressive type with just two runs and already a wet-track winner. The Te Rapa Heavy 10 maiden win over 1200m came after a debut synthetic placing, and the profile — lightly raced, improving, drawn 3 — is precisely the shape Ruakaka on Soft rewards. Lawson-Carroll keeps the ride after winning on him, a meaningful intent signal, and his 20% recent strike backs it.
The forgotten runner with the sharpest course credentials. Arabella has won, run second and run third from three attempts at this track and distance, and her overall Ruakaka record of 8 starts for 2 wins and 3 placings dwarfs anything else in the field on that measure.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 8 | Chicago Dream | 8 | Jack Taplin | K I Rae | 56.5kg | $4.80 |
| 2nd | 2 | Ashoka | 10 | Sam McNab | A W Pike | 58kg | $3.40 |
| 3rd | 4 | Golden Point | 5 | Craig Grylls | Ms A S Johnson | 59kg | $9.80 |
| 4th | 7 | Yokozuna | 2 | Tom Wigram | Ms D Logan | 56kg | $8.80 |
| 5th | 3 | Berenhard | 12 | Rihaan Goyaram | Ms D Jeffcoat | 57kg | $37.50 |
| 6th | 13 | Beneath The Stars | 13 | Jasmine Fawcett | Danny Walker & Arron Tata | 55.5kg | $27.30 |
| 7th | 12 | Arabella | 14 | Matthew Cartwright | Ms M L Bradley | 55.5kg | $12.30 |
| 8th | 1 | Sweet Ice | 6 | Warren Kennedy | D G Greene | 60.5kg | $6.10 |
| 9th | 10 | She''s A Boss | 15 | George Rooke | W Hillis & R Cole | 56.5kg | $16.80 |
| 10th | 11 | Lagisquet | 9 | Ethan Jones | Ms J K Mahoney | 56kg | $28.10 |
| 11th | 9 | Domain Ace | 3 | Samantha Collett | G A & D G Rogerson & Clint Isdale | 58.5kg | $17.20 |
| 12th | 14 | Pillar Of Society | 7 | Erin M Leighton | T R Powell | 54.5kg | $69.70 |
| Scr | 5 | Roederer | 17 | Josh King & Maija Vance | 59kg | ||
| Scr | 6 | Wise Choice | 3 | A Lawson-Carroll | C J Wood | 59kg | |
| Scr | 15 | Larius Lacus | 1 | Ms D Logan | 58kg | ||
| Scr | 16 | Chasing Warrior | 4 | B Wallace & G Cooksley | 57kg | ||
| Scr | 17 | Poppa Dennis | 11 | M L Rogers | 56kg |
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